I think tomorrow’s game at RMU is our best bet for a D1 win before PL play. On paper, it should be very tight.
However, my biggest concern is that we haven’t yet played a tight, nip-and-tuck game down the stretch. If this game is tight late in the game, we’re in uncharted territory. We’ll often hear discussion about a team with the intangible “knows how to win” tight games. If there really is such a trait, we can’t really tell if we have it yet. And it’s a road game, so history tells us that the challenge is a little rougher.
I wish I had access to KenPom’s raw data and tools. I’d be really interested to see if the accepted home-court advantage of roughly 4 points holds true for smaller programs. It makes sense to me in an environment like Cameron or Rupp, but is it real in Stabler or at other small-crowd venues?