Let’s say chalk wins the lower 10-rated RPI tournaments.
MEAC – Hampton – 170
SWAC – Texas Southern – 198
NEC – Wagner – 182
A-Sun – North Florida – 155
An upset winner in any of these 4 tournaments in particular would clearly be below a Bucknell or Lehigh, and even if chalk wins they could be ahead of one (or all) of them.
Some of the other interesting tournaments could be rooting for these upsets:
Southland: SFA (90), TAMU-CC (104), Sam Houston State (174)
Big Sky: Weber State (136), Montana (146)
WAC: Grand Canyon (104), NMSU (112) Cal State-Bakersfield (137)
Big South: Winthrop (128), Coastal Carolina (156), High Point (158)
I think the Patriot League needs a different winner in at least 1 of the above 4 tournaments in order to avoid the PIG. And it also looks like at best, unless the conference tourneys are bonkers, the high water mark for the PL will be a 15 seed.