I haven’t analyzed LU or LC upsets. I remember few, too.
But I remember too many games where LU expected much less from LC, but got much more.
Like 2015 — what should have been a LU blowout (definition: putting in third team) turned into a 2-TD game, with the ‘Pards actually outgaining Lehigh, 487 yards (!!!) to 485.
Put it another way: Lehigh gave up 35 points to a LC team last year that averaged 11.5 the rest of the year, including TWO shutouts.
How about 2014? A weak 4-6 Pards team down to their third-string QB (if I remember correctly) utterly dominated LU. LU, averaging 28 ppg, was held to 7 points. LU won only three games but should have been competitive in the 150th.
How about 2013? Lehigh heads into last game 8-2 (despite upset by Bucknell) after winning by two TDs priot two weeks over HC and Colgate. Lafayette comes in 4-6 with a freshman QB (now a senior) who played his tail off. We lose 50-28.
In 2009 and 2010, the game was decided by a touchdown or less.
All signs point to a blowout by LU this weekend (as it did vs. Bucknell this year and in 2013). But the Pards have nothing to lose. This is their playoff game and season.