Reply To: Re: Numbers Don't Lie – or Do They

January 6, 2012 at 5:00 pm #4444

Participant

"LU65" wrote: In nearly every case, Lehigh tops the chart and it is for this reason – along with our proven ability this year to play well on the road where many a PL team’s chances have gone awry in years past – that I believe Lehigh will win it all this year.

Rankings (345 schools)

Tempo / Offensive Efficiency / Defensive Efficiency

Army 36th / 294th / 229th
Lehigh 38th / 49th / 112th
Colgate 66th / 288th / 317th
Holy Cross 124th / 239th / 217th
Lafayette 181st / 139th / 333rd
Bucknell 280th / 93rd / 175th
Navy 298th / 299th / 277th
American 307th / 219th / 249th

If this were the NBA, you’d say, "What’s the use, numbers don’t lie; Lehigh wins it all." But it’s not. It’s the NCAA and, better yet, it’s the Patriot League where the game is still played by student athletes. In my book, that’s what makes this game and this time of year so special.

I agree that LU is clearly the favorite at this point. However remember that Pomeroy does not attempt to adjust his offense/defense rankings for strength of schedule. (He only adjusts for the offensive/defensive production of a team’s opponents – regardless of who they happen to have played.) Thus the numbers won’t fully reflect Bucknell having played a significantly tougher ooc schedule (BU’s #119 vs LU’s #281).

If the numbers could be adjusted for this, I’m sure LU would still be ahead in offensive and defensive efficiency, but the gap would likely close significantly.