Reply To: CJ Draft Status

[lehigh90Participant]

I don’t think it makes a lot of sense to test the waters unless you are on the bubble, and he doesn’t look like a bubble case. He is not on anyone’s board really as an first round option. He is not on most of the second round boards. By going to workouts, he may improve his stock, but it would be doubtful he plays himself off of boards into the first round. Being a second round pick is worse than being a free agent, as there is no guaranteed contract, and at least as a free agent, you can pick your team. If he goes to workouts and does poorly, then his stock plummets, even for 2013. So, I think he is better not showing his cards at this point. I think the upside is limited, or maybe better said, there is a ceiling to the upside. Upside would be play yourself into very late in first round, but more likely into second round. Floor is basically unlimited, he could really drop in the scout’s eyes for next season. Minor issues are injury (small chance), and he has played a lot of basketball, last season, last summer and this season, and maybe could use a break.

I think in these draft situations, the teams love the unknown much more than the known. And, you have to be fearful on hurting your stock. It is why a lot of NFL guys don’t work out at the combine. They have a pro day and do a little bit, not to hurt their stock. Teams also are more likely to take a late first round flyer on a big man, rather than a guard. If he works out for teams this draft go round, and doesn’t really impress, then stays in school, when he comes back in ’13 a lot of teams think, OK here is CJ McCollum again, we saw him last year, and he wasn’t that impressive, and I think that hurts him a little.

My opinion, obviously, he could workout and be amazing, but he is always going to have the stigma that a small school (poor competition) brings. I think for a guy like him, he can come back to a solid team, make another good run at the NCAA, maybe play more point, shoot the ball better, enhance his skills, and improve his stock for the ’13 draft. He can also get a degree, which he could get later, but it would be nice to put it to bed. I have heard no indication that he/his family are in a financial bind, and in need of money. Maybe he thinks he can go to workouts and blow the competition away, but that is doubtful. One big concern I have as an NBA team, is there were collegiate games where he was stifled against Patriot League competition. I know Cohen is a great defender, but it is the PL. Guys in the NBA have crazy superhuman athleticism. If I see a guy with atheliticism far below the NBA level locking up a guy (on many occasions) that worries me a bit as an NBA team with a first round pick. As a scout, I have to think if a guy like that can really limit him, what is a professional guard (PG or SG) going to be able to do. If he goes out his senior season and nobody stops him, that removes that fear.