It’s possible to get two in, but not a sure thing by any means. Bucknell would definitely have to run the table until the PL finals to have a shot. LU and CU might be able to take one more regular season loss if they also advance to the PL final. However both have iffy SOS’s, which will hurt.
The other issue is the numbers game. Looking at current results, 13 of the 16 bids may be spoken for: 4 ACC, JHU, Notre Dame, 6 AQ’s, and either Cornell or Princeton (whichever doesn’t win the Ivy). Also Villanova at the moment is ahead of all PL schools, and Denver probably is as well. And Syracuse – who is on the wrong side of the bubble at the moment – will have a lot of opportunities to play their way in. Assuming there are no upsets in conference tournaments, that might leave Villanova, Syracuse, Denver, possibly Fairfield, 2nd place PL team, and perhaps some others fighting for three spots. If certain upsets occur in the tournaments, then the PL chances would diminish. Also if Villanova and Syracuse finish strong, that would also make it very difficult.
What the PL teams would like to see:
– UMass wins the CAA tournament – knocking out Towson, Hofstra, PSU, Drexel, etc.
– Loyola wins the ECAC – knocking out Fairfield (hopefully), Ohio State, Denver, etc.
– Villanova gets upset by one or two Big East teams and then loses to ND.
– Denver loses to Loyola and Duke, and also gets upset by another league team. Also loses in in the ECAC tournament (which happens to be played in Denver). A total collapse by Loyola would also accomplish the same end, but is less likely.
– Syracuse loses maybe three more games from among Princeton, Cornell, Duke, Notre Dame, and Georgetown.