1. Right now I think Denver and Nova are likely ahead of any PL school – especially Nova. In lax, the NCAA has leaned heavily on the RPI over the years. Also laxpower’s tournament selection index (TSI) has been reasonably accurate. Here is how the five schools stand in those metrics:
Denver 18, 11
Nova 10, 8
BU 20, 15
CU 14, 24
LU 13, 17
As far as SOS goes, Villanova is #3, Denver #25, BU #26, LU #44, and CU #49.
2. Yes, Nova is 2-3 in its last five games, but two of the losses are to highly-ranked teams (Maryland and Princeton) and they also have a win over Syracuse. Their SOS and RPI are so far ahead of the PL schools, I think they definitely would beat them out for an at-large at the moment. Denver is more problematic but if they do well in the remaining games, they will certainly have an edge with the committee due to last year’s Final Four berth plus Tierney as coach. In any case, there is a lot of lax left to be played.
3. For LU or CU to get a seed, they will almost certainly have to run the table. (Bucknell has virtually no chance.) Even one loss and likely no seed. Bucknell last year may have had a better resume than LU will have this year – and they still did not get a seed.
Just looking at things right now, the 8 seeds would likely be JHU, UMass, VA, Loyola, Cornell or Princeton, Notre Dame, Duke, and Maryland. Would need at least one of those teams to fade down the stretch – and would also need UNC and Nova to not do well.
- This reply was modified 8 years, 6 months ago by Bison137.