1. He is not a sure thing to be back. I think it’s likely but maybe only 75% likely. If the PL followed its own bylaws, it would be less than 50-50.
2. His return will help AU no doubt, but imo it won’t turn it into a 3-way race. AU lost a lot (Hinkle, Brewer, McCormack, Jolivette, Grafft, and Simon) and even if Carroll somehow gains immediate eligibility they won’t be at the level of BU or LU (assuming good health). Definitely will be in the running for 3rd however. Also Lumpkins and Wroblicky are similar players and likely can’t play at the same time – which takes away a bit of Lumpkins’ added value.