RPI Forecast has us at 81 currently, with an expected year end RPI of 75. Interesting in that they have us favored in the rest of the regular season games, but expect us to lose 2 games of those left and end up at 20-7. They put us at as a 5.3 point favorite at Holy Cross and a 1.2 point favorite at home vs. Bucknell. Lehigh has a real shot to run the table to get to 22-5, as they will be favored in every game, but I could see losses at Holy Cross and vs. Bucknell at home. But, we control our own destiny. If we run the table, we end up 13-1 to Bucknell’s 12-2. What is also interesting is that between Bucknell and Lehigh, Lehigh is the team most likely to trip up and have a lousy game, but Lehigh is also better than Bucknell head to head. But, it would be a shame to beat Bucknell twice, and lose the PL Reg season with 3 losses. If we beat Bucknell at Stabler, it would be hard for us to lose 3 conference games, but we could trip up at HC and in Easton. But, I doubt we lose both of those, especially to Lafayette with revenge. The scary game is Holy Cross with revenge up there. We just can’t lose to the lower tier (Colgate, Navy, Army, American). We need to go 8-0 in those games.
Last question, in a PL final, would you like to be home, although history probably favors us at Sojka? I am curious to see if Lehigh can hold serve at Stabler coming up. I would feel more comfortable hosting a PL final if we showed an ability to beat Bucknell at home. Also, can Lehigh defeat Bucknell 3 times in a season? Probably not, which is why we may be better off following last season’s formula (split, winning on each other’s home court, then Lehigh wins second game at Sojka (hopefully with a healthy CJ)). Caveat to all of this would be that I cannot see CJ losing his last college game at home if we hosted a PL final.