If American beats Bucknell, it’s very likely they would end up with a better record than Colgate. That would get AU up to 6 wins, with games with Army, Navy, and Lafayette. Just beat Navy and they’re up to 7 wins. CU at the moment has 4 wins, with remaining games with LC, Army, Navy, and HC. They would have to win 3 of those 4 games to catch American (assuming an AU win over Navy plus losses to Army and LC). Thus I think it’s extremely likely AU ends up ahead of CU if BU loses to AU. And if AU is ahead of CU, then LU prevails in the tiebreaker.
If AU manages to lose to Navy tonight, however, that would give CU at least some chance of catching AU.