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Quote: “The only scenarios where Lehigh wins the regular-season championship is sweeping their last three games, including contests against the No. 3 and No. 4 teams, while Bucknell either 1) loses twice or 2) loses to American who then goes on to win the same amount of games or more than Colgate.”
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Not exactly. If American goes on to win the same number of games as Colgate for the year, then BU/LU games against those two would not break the tie – nor would BU and LU’s games against any other PL teams. Thus it would then go to the RPI – where BU holds an insurmountable advantage.
So LU needs BU to lose to American and then have AU end up ahead of Colgate – which is still likely with AU still holding a one-game advantage plus the hypothetical win over Bucknell.
Edit: Re-reading it, I’m not sure when you say American “goes on to win the same amount of games as Colgate” if you are talking about future games or total PL games.