Reply To: Tournament Forecasts

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How Pomeroy sees it on Wednesday
Army @ AU………..AU wins 72-59 (87% chance)
Navy @ BU………..BU wins 68-49 (97% chance)
LC @ HC…………. HC wins 72-67 (68% chance)
CU @ LU……………..LU wins 85-60 (97% chance)

Home teams are the class of the league and should – without question – advance. Upsets? Extremely doubtful. But, pressed to pick one, I’d go with Army in a shocker. Don’t get me wrong, I think their chances are slim – very slim – but give the cadets credit for being able to score the basketball. Hustle won’t be their problem, either. Army owns the 5th rank scoring offense in the league and when the 3’s start to fall, anything can happen. Just ask Navy about the day Army dropped 13 of 23 on them in a win or talk to Colgate about the cannon barrage of 16 out of 29 three’s that spelled their defeat. Defense, however, remains their problem. There, the Black Knights are 7th in FG% Defense @.475 and worse yet – 8th in Rebounding Defense @ 35.3/game. Yeah, they’ll have to hope that (1) AU has a cold shooting night and (2) that the ball bounces right (to them) off the rim and not into the waiting arms of 6’11” Worblicky or 6’11″Riley Grafft . Look for Army to push their already high pace of play (34th fastest in the nation) in route to some easy fast break points. Extra possession could mean extra points – something they’ll need if they hope to stay even with the more talented AU bunch. To quote Army Coach, Zach Spiker during his Lehigh post game interview, “I’m proud of our guys….that effort on Wednesday might do something pretty special.”