October 25, 2011 at 12:13 am #3788
With all the talk of our "bigs," the loss of McCarthy, and the thought of competing without a center the likes of Muscala, it might be time to examine perhpas an even bigger issue entering the 2011-’12 season: 3-point production . Or, better yet, the lack of one. Ojo is gone. So are Buchberger and Keefer. They’re all gone and so, too, might be are chances to climb back to the top unless Reed, CJ and Company can find adequate replacements. As for CJ, he must be wondering what hit him as his 3-point accuracy fell a whopping 106 points in his sophomore campaigns. Check-out LU’s numbers below. Fittingly, it’s a scary thought this Halloween season.
Remember, Lehigh ranked first in 3pt FG% during its championship season in 2009-’10. And, so did the Bison last year and the Eagles in both 2008-’09 and 2007-’08. You get the idea. Without a solid 3-point game you don’t stand much of a chance at coming out on top.
LU – The Last 4 Years
3FG/FGA = Average
Our record and place in the standings
172/525 = .328
Ojo best @ .402, CJ @ .315, Team without OJo @ .304
16-15 (6-8) – 4th Place Finish
220/551 = .399
CJ @ .421, Shamis/Buchberger/Keefer combined @ .495
22-11 (10-4) – 1st Place Finish
159/497 = .320
No guard > .350
15-14 (5-9) – 5th Place Finish
141/401 = .352
Keefer/OJo/Buchberger combine for .424
14-15 (7-7) – 3rd Place Finish
And, it’s just not scoring the ball from long range, it’s our ability to shut it down! Look over the numbers from last year – both on offense and defense.
Last year in the PL (PL games only)
3-POINT FG PCT G 3FGM 3FGA Pct.
1. Bucknell 14 91 235 . 3 8 7
2. Colgate 14 85 233 . 3 6 5
3. Lafayette 14 109 310 . 3 5 2
4. Holy Cross 14 77 224 . 3 4 4
5. American 14 86 252 . 3 4 1
6. Army 14 108 329 . 3 2 8
7. Lehigh 14 77 243 . 3 1 7
8. Navy 14 106 356 . 2 9 8
3-POINT FG PCT DEFENSE G 3FGM 3FGA Pct.
1. Bucknell 14 85 296 . 2 8 7
2. Holy Cross 14 81 277 . 2 9 2
3. Lafayette 14 92 267 . 3 4 5
4. Navy 14 98 283 . 3 4 6
5. Army 14 98 279 . 3 5 1
6. Colgate 14 97 273 . 3 5 5
7. Lehigh 14 98 270 . 3 6 3
8. American 14 90 237 . 3 8 0
Help! Any ideas? Will it be a rejuvenated CJ? Or, one of Canada’s best, Stefan Cvrkalj? Or, a PG turned shooter, Mackey McKnight? Or, a more consistent Anthony D’Orazio? Or, a second-team all-state guard/1000 point shooter out of Iowa, Corey Schaefer? Or, maybe added contributions from forwards Jordan Hamilton and Holden Greiner who together put it up a combined 94 times from long range last year. Hey, even a walk-on by the name of Tyrone Staggers? What do ya think?October 25, 2011 at 1:45 am #3789
I think the correlation is quite high LU65, correlation between having an inside game and 3 point shooting. My point, is that having an inside presence frees up shooters with better looks as the opponents look to defend inside first,choosing that poison over 3pt defense. Common theme, our 3 point shooting with Z in the paint in championship year gave guys on perimeter better look. Last year, we were built outside-in, when we need to be built inside-out…so not to beat a dead horse, but better inside game will free up the shooters.
Having said that, I’d expect CJ to split the difference, maybe around 38% for the year. I think stefan could be a huge missing piece, and am guessing Holden steps up and contributes there. Or perhaps BJ Bailey when he is out there(although known more as driver/take it to hoop then shooter, but who knows if two years off meant extra J’s at the gym).October 25, 2011 at 2:44 pm #3790
"LUHoops00" wrote: I think the correlation is quite high LU65, correlation between having an inside game and 3 point shooting. My point, is that having an inside presence frees up shooters with better looks as the opponents look to defend inside first,choosing that poison over 3pt defense. Common theme, our 3 point shooting with Z in the paint in championship year gave guys on perimeter better look. Last year, we were built outside-in, when we need to be built inside-out…so not to beat a dead horse, but better inside game will free up the shooters.
Having said that, I’d expect CJ to split the difference, maybe around 38% for the year. I think stefan could be a huge missing piece, and am guessing Holden steps up and contributes there. Or perhaps BJ Bailey when he is out there(although known more as driver/take it to hoop then shooter, but who knows if two years off meant extra J’s at the gym).
1. Agree about the importance of the inside game (and the effect of Carrington). I also think that a strong PG can have a big influence on 3-point pct, either by penetrating and kicking out or simply by getting the ball to the right guy at the right time. The loss of Hall may have had a significant effect on the LU 3-point pct. LIkewise, it will be interesting to see how Bucknell fares with Shazier gone.
2. You seem to know something about Bailey that most people do not. He is not listed on the roster. He has not been mentioned in any of the LU writeups. And he was not mentioned at all by Reed in his lengthy interview with Chris Couregon for the Blue Ribbon yearbook article. So why do you seem so confident he will be playing? Is he pracaticing with the team currently?October 26, 2011 at 11:00 am #3796
1.) Philosophically, I agree with you about pg impact, but not how you applied to LU last year, aka mackey. Mackey is actually a very good driver, showed ability to blow by defender and penetrate, I recall having a good ass/to rate as a frosh. Issue for him was he struggled horribly with his shot. Not just deep jumpers but he missed so many bunnies from inside post beating his man last year. Of all LU players, I have him earmarked for most improved player. Could easily see 12 ppg and 5 dimes per game for mackey.
2.)Can’t get into details but bj will be playing for lu this year and we should see tangible evidence of this shortly.October 26, 2011 at 2:41 pm #3797
Hoops, I think you are right on the money. Mackey proved in high school that he can put the ball in the basket, and he was able to get great looks last year. That said I definitely think 12/5 is a reasonable goal for him.
Great news about BJ. Looking forward to the official confirmation!
As for 3 pt shooting, I think that the team can raise their % a bit this year. Let’s not short-change Knutson, who is one of the better low post/short corner scorers in the PL and should continue to improve this year. Hopefully he can demand his fair share of attention down low. AD proved himself a capable (if streaky) shooter, and we are aware of the reputations of Stefan and Corey. If Mackey can produce a bump in % and CJ can find some middle ground between his freshman and soph percentages, I think they will be in decent shape. And of course, BJ is a wild card, but I don’t really know enough about his game to determine if he will help in the 3 pt department.October 27, 2011 at 4:12 am #3802
I am firmly in the camp of the necessity to improve our 3-point production. I have seen it at other schools. If you can’t shoot effectively from distance, defenses tend to collapse inside the paint. That makes it much harder to penetrate because there are no driving lanes. Turnovers increase because there are less passing lanes and rebounding goes down because the opposition has more players around the cylinder.
It just takes repetitions, 500 /day. I hope they worked on this skill set all summer.October 27, 2011 at 6:01 am #3805
I must agree that Mackey can drive. I like his quickness, expect him to be much improved this year. Wow, BJ back? That would be awesome. One question. Has he been working out? Looking forward to seeing the teams get at it again. Dr. Reed, remember it takes defense and offense:).October 27, 2011 at 11:07 am #3807
For those interested I believe BJ espn recruiting notes can still be accessed. If I recall, it led one to believe that he is more of a 2guard, and more slasher and scorer then pure shooter. Seeing that write-up is two and a half years old, who knows about his deep ball stroke. Assuming off a two year layoff that it will take some time to get readjusted to speed of game and lu philosophy.October 29, 2011 at 1:09 am #3809
I don’t mean to be negative, I am a big fan of Lehigh basketball but I don’t see BJ making at least an immediate impact.
Here is his ESPN evaluation. Please keep in mind that it is oover 2 years old.
http://insider.espn.go.com/college-spor … /bj-bailey
His statistics at BU don’t reveal much either
6 games, 16 min/g 3.8 pts .315 shooting %, .200 from the 3
http://www.goterriers.com/sports/m-bask … _bj00.html
Plus he has been out of basketball for well over a year. He may be a factor down the line. I certainly wish him well but very near term may be a stretch.October 30, 2011 at 10:58 am #3811
TMH – well said, immediate impact off of two years(not one) since basketball would be asking a lot. While most of us are excited to add a talented guy into the lineup, I’ve not seen anyone guarantee X.X ppg or a starting role. I’m just happy that it is an option, that he will be on team and could make an impact. One thing to note, that espn evaluation you provided, an 86 rating would probably be the highest LU player since I’ve been paying attention, and a high 80’s is about as good as it gets for a PL player. Point is, kid has talent, it is there, we’ll see how/if it works. BUT, just glad it is an option, and one I think by league play in January, an option that will add more value then it detracts.
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