January 14, 2014 at 4:39 pm #13053
KenPom’s Rankings and Chance of Winning
AU (8-7, 4-0) 110th
LU (8-9, 1-3) 196th
AU wins 61-60 (54%)
If KenPom has his way, there’ll be three 5-0 teams in the Patriot League come tomorrow night at 9 o’clock as Army could/should put down 1-win Holy Cross and Boston U. should have little problem with winless Colgate. Aaah, that leaves Lehigh. Can we derail American and get back into the race and hand them their first “L.”? On the other end of the spectrum, Lafayette became the first to hit “5” in reverse, losing to Loyola last night. Were Colgate to fall, as expected tomorrow night, they would join them the Leopards at 0-5. All this in “anybody can win” and “don’t you just love the competitive nature of” the PL?!”
Home Sweet Home. Well, not really. A quick check shows the visitors coming out on top in 8 of the 21 PL contests played to date. Nice work, Army, you’re 3-0 away from Christl. As for Lehigh, we had been 5-0 at Stabler in OOC play this season but have dropped 2 in League play to conference kingpins Boston U. and Army by a combined 4 points. Time to turn it around! Something our friends over in Easton and up in Hamilton must be saying, as well, where both teams are winless in their home gyms. We could always blame it on the students or, better said, the lack of student support. But that excuse is no longer valid. Spring Classes are back in full swing.
As for our game against the Eagles of American, a couple of thoughts:
Why not bring back the Zone? It worked surprisingly well against Loyola in our last game and American, with its interior strength, hits 57.6% of their 2-point attempts. That’s second best in the nation.
Tony Worblicky, AU’s 6’10” / 230 lb. senior Center, is a force under the boards (6.0 rpg – 6th in the PL) and scoring the basketball (11.2ppg – 17th in the PL). He’s a one-man wrecking crew with 3 assists and 2 blocks/game, also. This will be his 108th game as a collegiate player and someone TK (91 games behind in experience) must somehow contain. I would have loved to have witnessed JG going on TK in practice this week.
While not a particularly strong 3-point shooting team (.351), Schoof, Reed, and Carroll can light it up combining for a .407 long distance shooting percentage. And, Schoof (#22) is a guy we should see plenty of, averaging 36.3 mpg.
AU will probably start 1 senior (Worblicky), 3 juniors (Schoof, Gardner, and Kyle Kager) and a sophomore (Reed). Once again, experience doesn’t favor us. Four average double-digit outputs.
Darius Gardner (#00) their 5’9” junior guard is coming off a 21 pt. performance up at Colgate and is perhaps their hottest player, canning 18 of 29 (.620) since the start of PL play. He’s not a 3-pt. threat (0 for 6 in PL) but someone then again he’s someone you don’t want to foul (.850).
Here’s a link to the AU Message Board. Enjoy the read re: their Colgate game.
http://auhoops.proboards.com/thread/421/au-69-colgate-62January 15, 2014 at 12:22 am #13063January 15, 2014 at 6:46 pm #13067
This is a tough match-up for Lehigh. AU’s “princeton-style” offense is very difficult to guard, especially for young players. The majority have our guys who play major minutes have likely never played against the style in their lives, so it will be a real test at their ability to pick up concepts quickly and put them into action.
That said, I expect a good effort tonight. I think JC will bounce back and a big game from him tonight would be huge.
Now that students are back, will there be any type of student section and a better crowd tonight? Maybe? Hopefully?January 15, 2014 at 7:42 pm #13068
I agree a tough match up but LU should be very hungry after 3 close loses. Should be a better crowd with students back. I hope JC bounces back because he could be the key to a win tonight. He must play big IMHO for LU to win.January 15, 2014 at 7:49 pm #13069
Small, quick guards kill us. We can never stay in front of them. Work cut out for them with Gardner tonight. It is time for MM to step up on both ends tonight. A little senior leadership to right this ship.January 16, 2014 at 1:52 am #13073
How do you not guard the 3 pt line inside a minute and a half and give up 2 virtually uncontested 3’s? Ball game.
MM played nice game but down 3 late, his drive to basket was ridiculous.January 16, 2014 at 4:47 am #13080
Please insert my comments from the last 4 games. Identical tonite. Wait 10 minutes before starting to play ,dig a huge hole spend the rest of the game making final score look respectable. Clear bot MBB and WBB have same malady’
I asked on twitter and ask here,why is Doc letting MM emulate CJ’s play. He is not CJ nor is this the same team. MM has to be assertive for the whole game not just the 2nd half.January 16, 2014 at 6:23 am #13081
PAFan11’s comments on JC look right on.
I did not see the game, but looking at the box he had only 2 points and 2 rebounds in only 15 mins. SW played only 8 mins.
Telling numbers of the night:
That’s the number of points in the paint each team had …
TK shot 4-14 (.286) compared to his seasonal average of .506.
Any analysis on these key stats from someone who watched?January 16, 2014 at 10:37 am #13083
I have been busy with the girls basketball high school season, following last year’s seniors and lost track of LU. What’s with the close wins? Why can’t we pull them out? Comments, ideas. Mackey trying to do it all himself? Last time I saw Chuku, he was balling. We need to right the ship folks.January 16, 2014 at 10:51 am #13084
A common thread in the last four games has been teams paying particular attention to TK. Constantly doubling him and doing what they can to create contact offensively and defensively. In those four games he’s 14-42 (.333). Every move heavily contested last night with very little help from officials. Plus it was one of those nights (again) where even the layups didn’t go in. Very frustrating game (again) to watch from Lehigh perspective.January 16, 2014 at 2:52 pm #13088
Rich I hear loud and clear but despite being down early we are basically in a tie game with last few minutes every night so as bad as openings are we can’t close out tight games in money time right now. To your point though Last night was the worst start ever – it was as if no coach or player watched a drop of film – got back doored to death and either gave them open layups or uncontested jumpers. SC can’t guard a chair, got smoked on a back cut three time in a row basically in first half – how he plays is almost beyond me right now, I don’t care that he hit two jumpers, he is a stationary jump shooter who can’t guard and he is in game late last night in closing two minutes. Reed finally went zone and stuck with it all night, we are a horrible man defense team right now and zone looks surprisingly good despite never using it.
TK had a ton of close range shots that rolled out, it happens. Our offense is pretty motionless, no cutters no movement, having cj to bail you out for four years but we need coaching and creativity right now and I don’t think we are gettin it in spades right now.
MM had a good game but man that drive late was horrid.
Another tough loss, got to get going soon cause this is getting away from us. Guess now its about tryin to get a mid seed to try to make a run in march – I still say we can win three straight in march and take this tourney down if all breaks right, talents there.January 16, 2014 at 3:28 pm #13089
Dont really disagree about last minutes of these games. But,if we dont dig ourselves these deep holes perhaps we go into the last 3 minutes up 6. Bball is a hame of runs. we expend ourselves to reduce a deficit that we created for ourselves by not showing up at the start of these games. How much do we have left then at the end of games to close?January 16, 2014 at 3:35 pm #13090
As far as TK is concerned, I think you have to give Wroblicky a fair amount of credit there. He is probably the best big-body rim protector in the PL and sent a couple of TK’s shots into the seats last night. TK also had a couple bunnies that rimmed out. Overall though, he really doesn’t elevate much at all inside and relies instead on his size, positioning, and touch. Going against a disciplined and equal size opponent is tough for him at this stage. I hope that some work with the strength coaches next year brings back a more explosive TK that will finish better inside, yet retain his arsenal of moves.
Also, guards…PLEASE stop throwing the ball to TK on the move. It doesn’t work. Stop passing your teammates into trouble.
Agree on SC unfortunately. It sounds as though he’s had some tough breaks during his time at Lehigh, but he is a total defensive liability right now and his offense is fine but not enough to make up for it.
Lastly, does anyone else notice that AP seems good for one bonehead foul a game? Sometimes very costly at the end of games or halves? He needs to reach less and be more concerned about positioning.January 16, 2014 at 5:37 pm #13091
Good points, guys.
Allow me to add another………………I continue to be amazed at how we do not involve the 7th best shooter in the PL (3rd best among guards behind only Kager of AU and Cox of Army), Corey Schaefer, in our offense. He’s also the second best in the PL when it comes to hitting the three behind Tanner Plomb, a forward not less, out of Army (see stats below). He’s an experienced junior player who knows how to get open and has a sweet shot. Someone tell me why we feed him the ball so infrequently. He gets off a shot only once every 4.2 minutes of playing time. Is that a way to treat your best shooter! I love Mackey as much as the rest of you but believe he must even out his game (come to play 40 minutes a night) and perhaps, most importantly, look for scoring support when it’s there. And, unless I’m blind, it is there! For comparison purposes, MM – our point guard – puts up a shot every 2.8 minutes and hits far fewer of his attempts (.470 overall and .481 on threes) than Corey.
CS’ numbers in PL Games Only
FG% .575 (trails Kager @.600 and Cox @.680)
3FG% .538 (trails only Plomb @ .545)
Team FG%s in PL Games
TK .424 (.304 in last two)
Four L’s in a row (3 at home) by a combined 10 points following an overtime win (on the road) by 10. Never saw that coming. Still believe, however, we’ll be in the mix at the end based on what I’m seeing around the league. If we can lose 4 straight in the manner we have, we can win four straight in that very same manner. Let’s hope to turn it around on Saturday up in Worcester. Hoops00 and I will be looking for company at the Hart Center. Any takers?January 16, 2014 at 5:57 pm #13092
Stablerbum I agree with you on AP and bad positioning. He also takes poor shots at crucial points of games. Stop chucking 3s with 20+ seconds on the shot clock. Excluding a small number of games his shooting percentage is not very good. 6 for 22 in last four I believe. I think he needs to expand game offensively if he is going to be a force in PL.
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