February 12, 2014 at 1:50 am #13593
LU (13-12, 6-6) Ranked 217th
AU (14-9, 10-2) Ranked 100th
AU wins 66-57 (85% chance)
Apparently KenPom is looking beyond AU’s recent troubles (back-to-back losses to Loyola and Colgate) in naming the Eagles a 9-point pick over the Mountain Hawks. Could it be their #2 national ranking in something the statistician calls “Effective FG%” @ 54.7% (behind only Creighton) or the fact that they hold down the #1 spot in the PL @ 60.3%? Remember, when it comes to nailing down the 2-pt. shot (60.3% of the time), no one is any better in the PL. While it true that the Eagles did lose their last two, it wasn’t because of their shooting or rebounding. Instead, both Loyola and Colgate simply out-shot the Eagles – especially from deep with Loyola nailing 70% and Colgate 53.3%. Can we follow suit? It might be our best shot knowing AU is 10th in the ten-team PL at defending the three. Or will we continue to feed the “bigs” as has been the case in recent games. That formula has worked much of the year but not always and not in recent days. Surprise, surprise! Our big men have struggled of late going .414% vs. Loyola and .348% vs. Army. To win this one, our 3’s will have to be fall – much as they did back on January 15th in our first matchup with American. In that game, MM/CS/SC combined to go 7 for 14 from beyond the arc while TK/JC/JG struggled inside against Worblicky and Company going 7 for 20.
Wacky and wonderful PL
HC loses 3 of their first 4 and wins 7 of their last 8.
Navy after losing 6 in a row drops Army @ Chrstl Arena.
Bucknell, winners in 3 of their first 4, have only been able to win 2 of their next 8.
Army starts out 6 and 1 and proceeds to go 2 and 3 in their next 5.
Colgate begins the year going 1 and 7 and has now won 2 of the last 4.
Lafayette losers of their first 9, have won 2 of their last 3.
Loyola is a “nothing special” 5 and 7 but do own a win over 10-2 American.
American, picked by many to finish in the second wave, started out with 10 surprising wins only to get tripped up in the last seven days by Loyola and Colgate who are a combined 8-16.
Boston U., on the other hand, is as advertised: a solid 10-2.
As they say, it only takes 3 to win it in March.February 12, 2014 at 3:30 pm #13595
I’m excited for this game. I think Lehigh has a pretty good shot at pulling the upset. I expect the team to do a much better job on defense, and get beat backdoor less frequently if for no other reason than this is round 2 and they know what to expect.
I’d love to see a big game for Austin. He’s long overdue for a nice shooting night. Shane as well could use a big game for his confidence.February 12, 2014 at 4:37 pm #13598
Looking back over our first meeting, it looks like points in the paint was the biggest problem for us. AU had a 32-18 edge. They also shot a bit better, but it wasn’t a huge difference. I’m confident that we can now produce more points in the paint, but I’m thinking that post defense might be the big difference-maker. If we can tighten that up, things look better to me.February 12, 2014 at 4:48 pm #13599
Watching game #1, I don’t think the points in the paint were much a function of dump downs into the post, but more back doors that turned into lay-ups. Wroblicky also had 6 offensive boards, which is how he got his buckets.
I do have confidence we will do better with the backdoor. If we do a good job with the backdoor and keep Wroblicky off the boards, I think Lehigh has a decent shot. It all comes down to how AU shoots the 3 after that.February 13, 2014 at 12:23 am #13605
Ugh, 13 turnovers in the first half and just 20 points. I have nightmares about Mackey throwing the ball to Tim on the move in traffic. I think that has worked maybe once in 50 tries this year.
On the plus side, great first half from Austin.February 13, 2014 at 12:57 am #13608
Just got in checked score on my TL. Not even going to bother watching last 11 mins. At least WBB game is close.February 13, 2014 at 1:20 am #13609
If anyone is planning on watching this on replay, I recommend turning it off after the first 10 minutes of the game. Nothing good happens after that.
21 turnovers and 15 made field goals. Just let that sink in for a second. 35% more turnovers than field goals. And Austin Price had 8 of those 15. The rest of the team was 7-29 from the floor with TWENTY turnovers.
Also, I think the preseason consensus on the board was that on the low low end we still expected Jesse to give us about 10 and 6. Unfortunately, he is a tad lower than that prediction, which is a function of our outsized expectations more than his performance. He just really frustrates me with how great he can be when he is on and confident, and how invisible he can be when he’s not.February 13, 2014 at 1:24 am #13610
time to write these guys off, they look like a sandlot gang out on the playgroundFebruary 13, 2014 at 2:44 pm #13611
I’d have to agree that’s it probably time to write off this season. But I do think we’ve seen things to be excited about for the future. In the near-term, I think preseason projections were about right. While we have had some shining moments, we are probably somewhere around the 6th best team in the PL this year overall. Consistency just ain’t there. It’s been said here before – this is probably the natural product of a young, inexperienced team.February 13, 2014 at 4:19 pm #13612
Bright spots ,yes glimpses of cohesion but few and far between this year. Very optimistic for next year. AU would have been a very hard road win . The disturbing aspect to me was the way MM was totally dominated by AU PG.February 13, 2014 at 6:53 pm #13614
It’s hard to imagine but………
> We made just 15 buckets in the game – a season low. In fact, over the past three games, we have hit just 51of 147 field goal attempts (.347) while in the prior four (all W’s) we went 105 for 212 (.495).
> We turned the ball over 21 times leading to 24 opponent points – both record performances.
> Mackey sank one shot (.200 FG%)in 33 minutes and turned it over six times.
> Tim did him one better netting two buckets (.286 FG%) in 23 minutes and giving it up four times.
> Everyone that played for Lehigh recorded a turnover except Cole Renninger. Way to go!
Depressed and deflated for all the reasons other fans have stated in prior posts but simply believe, above and beyond everything else, our young men have hit a wall. Tired play has lead to sloppy play. That said, it won’t deter me from showing up on Saturday to cheer them on. Hope to see TMH and others there!February 13, 2014 at 8:09 pm #13615
Also, where are you Hoops? I see some of your comments on twitter, but we need you in the postgame discussion!February 13, 2014 at 10:17 pm #13616
Travel. Must admit very spoiled ny PL live coverage. So much easier and keeps W happy that I’m home.
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