February 5, 2011 at 4:46 pm #3229
LU (12 – 10….3 – 4) vs. AMERICAN (15 – 7….5 – 2)
Sagarin Rankings and Resulting Lines
Rankings (345 D-I schools)
Lehigh / American
Sagarin Predictor: 196 / 140
RPI: 212 / 118
Pomeroy: 196 / 179
Resulting Line and Chance of Winning – A Difference of Opinion
Sagarin: AU – 2
Pomeroy: LU wins 71-68 (62% Chance)
Some random thoughts about…………
1. In their 5 wins, Vlad has averaged 23.4ppg; in their 2 losses, 13 fewer @ 10.5ppg.
2. They lost their last time out – on the road – to Navy. In that game, AU shot poorly from beyond the arc (4-22) and committed 15 turnovers to their opponent’s nine. Navy made seven more three’s than AU and shot 40.7% from deep.
3. In our PL season-opening 7-pont loss to AU, Vlad and Lumpkins combined for 55 of AU’s 82 points. In a game highlighted by runs, Vlad went 13 of 18 from the field and scored 19 in a 4:24 period which saw LU go from up 3 to down 7. He would later score all 8 of AU’s points in an 8-2 run and 11 straight in an AU 11-4 run. Other standout stats would include: AU’s 44 boards (LU had 24) and CJ’s 32 points (although just 1 for 6 from beyond the arc). Lesson Learned: Shut down Vlad, limit their runs, do a better job on the boards, find a scoring option other than CJ, and make some threes! Simple.
1. What will be different this time ’round? For starters we’ll see McKnight and Greiner in the starting lineup replacing Small and Jordan. Secondly, we can hope for a more productive Ojo (4 points in 21 minutes during Game 1), and a more productive Knutson who, the first time around, had just 6 points before fouling-out.
2. A Lehigh win assures us of a no worse than a 3rd place tie standing in the league @ 4-4, one game behind 2nd place, AU. A loss could plummet us into a last place tie @ 3-5.February 5, 2011 at 6:18 pm #3230
I agree that McKnight will start Sunday, but I wouldn’t rule out Hamilton. In the Holy Cross game, Hamilton came off the bench and played 21 minutes to Greiner’s 16 and had 6 pts and 7 rebounds to Greiner’s 5 pts and 2 rebounds. Reed seems to go with the hot hand between those two and last Saturday at least that seems to have been HamiltonFebruary 6, 2011 at 2:03 pm #3231
THE 3 POINT BASKET
Now would be a good time for the 3’s to start falling – for Lehigh that is. Although both teams are probably thinking the same.
3’s Made per Game
AU .287 (7th best in PL)
LU .270 (8th best in PL)
Top 3 Point Shooters (%)
AU: Brewer @ .364, Vlad @ .300
LU: Ojo @ .400, McKnight @ .311, CJ @ .300
Paraphrasing what Coach Reed has said about the percentages – especially CJ’s, "we’re better shooters than that…….we just need better looks at the basket." When faced with a pair of dominate big men as we will be today the persons of Lumpkins (.641 FG%) and Vlad (.447 FG%), we had better get those better looks from outside or catch CJ in one of his zones so as to match AU’s 2’s with our 3’s – especially if our interior play struggles to keep pace. A good example of what I mean by a pair of big men vs. a team whose 3’s aren’t falling would be BU’s Muscala and Willman vs. Navy in the former’s 26 point win last evening. M&W hit a combined 14 of 23 two point shots – 3 more than the entire Navy team who shot 11 for 27 from in close. Instead Navy, as is their custom, attempted to ‘hang in there’ by going deep but could only drop 5 of 31 from beyond the arc. Not saying Navy would have won the game hitting 12 of 31, but it would have been a competitive ballgame.
CONTRASTING STYLES OF PLAY
When it comes to "tempo" or number of possessions per game, you can’t find two teams further apart in the PL than……..
Lehigh: 72.3 18th in the nation
American 63.0 321st in the nation
FREE THROWS – WE’RE TOPS IN THE NATION
You knew we were good – 25th best in the nation in terms of free throw percentage(75.1%), but did you know we were the nation’s # 1 team in terms of "% of its points scored from the free throw line" at 28.1%?February 6, 2011 at 9:09 pm #3232
I sat down and watched this one on television. Disappointing. LU should have had this one. Nice job Hamilton! Adams was not suited up. Good to see Maneri suited up. McCarthy looking good out there. My boy Lumpkins continues play well. What about the time out? Not sure what else to say. Good luck next game.February 7, 2011 at 3:45 pm #3233
I was at the game, and I asked everyone about that time out. What I *will* say is that an unidentified Lehigh assistant coach made the "T" with his hands, and the refs did not acknowledge him. I know because I saw it with my own two eyes.
I wasn’t sure that Lehigh had a time out, since I hadn’t counted them and it wasn’t on the scoreboard at the STAR. But I was pretty sure they did have one. Having said that, coach Reed didn’t get all Flannery, either, after the game complaining about the call.
The officiating was pretty bad. Knutson picked up two extremely ticky-tack fouls early, causing him to sit (that could have had an effect, but McCarthy played extremely well in relief). The Mad Romanian could pretty much push over whomever he wanted and wasn’t called for a solitary foul the entire game. Twice American was given shooting fouls when it was clear to anyone watching the game they were passes – which was the scoring difference in the game.
Having said that, even with the game feeling like it was 8-on-5 for long stretches, Lehigh also gave up some big offensive rebound putbacks with the game on the line. They could have had this one. Overall, an extremely exciting game that was everything I’d hoped for except a Lehigh victory.February 7, 2011 at 4:47 pm #3234
Reed probably didn’t get too upset after the game because he knew he had screwed up in a major way. In this situation, coaches normally will always tell the ref between shots that they want an immediate timeout if the shot is missed and they control the rebound. That way there is no risk that the ref doesn’t see/hear you trying to call timeout. Also coaches normally will also tell their players they want an immediate timeout. Sounds very much like Reed did neither. Probably was just assuming Vlad would make the second shot and then he could call a timeout at his leisure.February 7, 2011 at 5:38 pm #3235
Agree with Bison. That was "executive mismanagement."
But, as tired as I am of losing 1 possession games, I came away from this game more optimistic than when I went in. Hamilton, Greiner, McCarthy and McKnight are improving every week. I also believe that Reed is one who learns from his mistakes and will eventually be among the best coaches in the league (if he isn’t already). I’m looking forward to the rest of this season and the two to come.
It’s also a great opportunity we fans have to be able to see the development of CJ who does something to amaze in every game.February 8, 2011 at 1:04 am #3236
On the matter of the timeout, here’s a passage from today’s Morning Call.
Coach Reed called a timeout but the refs didn’t give it to us," McCollum said. "So I just continued to dribble and not waste time. We have plays for that, under five seconds, but unfortunately we weren’t able to get off a play."
"I thought I was within line of vision with the official. I thought I was also clear with the call," Reed said. "However, it was not granted. I’m disappointed it was not granted. … With two seconds left and a team having to go 94 feet, the odds of that possession working out to the offense’s favor is a long shot. However, you would love to be able to take that shot."
No doubt Head Coach Reed signaled for and called for a time out. He says so; CJ says so. Who’s to doubt them at their word? What the good doctor didn’t do, however, is tell the referee of his intention before the foul shot(s) are taken. Hey, he’s still a good coach, a good man, and we played a good game.
Can’t complain about a game featuring 9 lead changes and 8 ties. Some LU highlights that got blurred by the failed timeout call:
Ojo’s work on Vlad holding him to 13 points on 5-14 shooting.
Going 5 for 11 from three point range. Doesn’t sound like much, but it’s a start.
Hamilton’s 10 in relief of Greiner.
Just 7 turnovers.
16 points off the bench.
CJ’s 4th double-double in a row. High rebounder for the game with 10.
McCarthy’s steady growth in his post play.
Another good night at the free-throw line (14-18) although CJ is probably kicking himself over a 5-7 night.
So there are six to go before what I believe will be a home date at Stabler on March 2nd. At 3-5 and tied with four other teams for 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th place in the PL, "3 March Wins and You’re In" will soon – if not already – be our rallying cry. Not to say both BU and AU can’t fall apart, but it’s highly unlikely. Make no mistake about it, however, no one will be anxious to play us come March – a team that is 5 points away from being 6-2 (one point losses to CU and AU, and a 3 point setback to Army) and a team that gave AU all it could handle. Oh yeah, we have CJ.
Keeping the faith!February 8, 2011 at 2:29 am #3237
It comes down to one thing and one thing only …. Team ball
If they pass, they win. I’d bet close to 80 percent of their shots were off the dribble not a pass. This makes us too easy to defend and predict
Even with this play we aren’t losing by much. It’s up to them whether they want to win or not. They can…….Phil JacksonFebruary 8, 2011 at 7:27 am #3238
Well I agree that LU could have won. Reed did not make his intentions known and there was not enough passing. Even the announcer said McKnight had one problem and that was he needed to find CJ. Hamilton and MCCarthy looked good coming off the bench. Good luck next game!February 8, 2011 at 7:30 am #3239
I think you are right on this one Bison 137. Coaches and assistants should have been yelling time out!
"Bison137" wrote: Reed probably didn’t get too upset after the game because he knew he had screwed up in a major way. In this situation, coaches normally will always tell the ref between shots that they want an immediate timeout if the shot is missed and they control the rebound. That way there is no risk that the ref doesn’t see/hear you trying to call timeout. Also coaches normally will also tell their players they want an immediate timeout. Sounds very much like Reed did neither. Probably was just assuming Vlad would make the second shot and then he could call a timeout at his leisure.
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