February 8, 2012 at 1:34 pm #4794
Ken Pomeroy Rankings
Lehigh wins 70-66 (66% chance)
Line: LU – 4
How Pomeroy sees the other PL Games on Wednesday
BU to defeat CU 76-61 (90% chance)
Army to defeat LC 74-72 (55% chance)
HC to defeat Navy 61-60 (57% chance)
Some random thoughts…….
Home Sweet Home
Lehigh, no stranger to revenge games itself, will find themselves on the opposite side of the ball tomorrow night as we face a hungry American squad looking to avenge an earlier 11-point loss up at Stabler. That loss was a bitter pill to swallow for the Eagles as neither team play particularly well with Lehigh finding a way to win it, as they so often do, from the “line” where they went15 of 17 compared to American’s 2 of 6. We may be riding high, winning 4 in a row by an average score of 17 points (79.75 – 62.75) but so, too, is American. They’re coming off a 2-1 road trip and returning home to Bender where they are a perfect 9-0 this season. This game will test of our much hyped LU road warrior experience.
Fight to the finish …..
While I’m not giving up on the idea of Lehigh finishing atop the league at the end of regular season play, it may be time to consider it for what it is: a long shot. Had Army been able to upset the Bison on Saturday as they did a year ago, we may have had a real shot. Now, the best chance we have to finish on top is for us to win out – and that of course means beating both AU and BU on consecutive Thursdays beginning this week, and to have AU upend BU at Bender on the Thursday after that, 2/23. Now that’s a trifecta and one that CBS is happy to hold. Under such a plot, we and the Bison (who also win their other games) would each post identical 12-2 records. The best AU could do is finish 11-3. Our sweep of AU when compared to BU’s split decision against the Eagles, would give us the tie-breaker and the all-important #1 seed in the Playoffs. Granted, it’s a long shot but as fans we can hope, can’t we?
As for finishing second, there’s plenty of work to be done there, too. And, American – win or lose tomorrow night – may not be our only problem. Sitting directly behind them and a game out of second in a 5-3 Lafayette team. Like everyone else, the Leopards have six to play with four on the road against Army and all those ahead of them, namely: BU, AU and LU. Before you write off their chances, consider this: LC is 3-0 away from Kirby this year in Patriot League action. So, if looking for a reason to cheer tonight, consider this one: GO ARMY! The Black Knights host the Leopards at 7 o’clock up at the Point.February 8, 2012 at 2:37 pm #4798
Pomeroy’s margins, of course, are not adjusted for missing players – thus HC being only a one-point favorite at Navy. With JJ Avila having been thrown off the Navy team for at least the rest of the year, HC is likely a 10+ point favorite.February 9, 2012 at 1:49 pm #4825
Washington Post columnist, Steven Goff, chronicles the rise of AU’s Charles Hinkle.
Two of the league’s best will be on display tonight at Bender. Stats cover PL games only.
Player / mpg / ppg / rpg / FG% / FT%
CJ / 34.6 / 24.3 (1st) / 7.1 (3rd) / .462 (6th) / .759 (14th)
CH / 33.2 / 17.9 (4th) / 6.1 (5th) / .436 (13th) / .806 (9th)February 9, 2012 at 6:39 pm #4830
All of the PL road teams won last night, so hopefully it continues tonight for the last midweek game. It is going to be a tough game, as American is undefeated at home, including a big win vs. a good St. Joe’s team. If it goes like the game in Bethlehem, McCollum and Hinkle are going to get their points, but both teams will need a second scorer to emerge. Lehigh’s secondary scorers (Knutson, Greiner and McKnight) have been fairly quiet lately (solid, but no huge games), and hopefully one steps up tonight and goes for 20+. Or, maybe Adams continues his hot shooting and energy play. He was big the first time around. American has less scoring depth than Lehigh. Outside of Brewer, who has had 3 bad games in a row, nobody really scares you. So, I give Lehigh a slight edge tonight, winning a tight game, say 70-66.February 9, 2012 at 6:40 pm #4831
Just noticed, I picked the exact same score as Pomeroy, oops. Let’s go a little higher 75-71.February 10, 2012 at 2:31 am #4835
Guess I get first shot at the carnage left over from the game that just wrapped up in our fine nations capital. I missed the first 8-10 minutes of this game as I was in route back home off of a work trip, so I missed JH outburst, but the last 30 minutes of the game was pretty tough to watch offensively. The entire team was out of sync offensively, Gabe could get nothing going down low versus the star of the night Wroblicky, the man who averages 5/5 who at last check during game had 17/17….mackey couldn’t get going, CJ was off…HG didn’t play…few questions below…
1.)Greiner – as I said, missed first 10 minutes of this one, did HG do anything wrong here cause he barely played in 2nd half, and I don’t remember seeing him really in last part of 1st half.
2.) Rebounding – so many offensive rebounds for AU, just unacceptable, way to many rebounds off missed FTs killed us.
3.) Secondary scoring – outside JH flurry early, there was nothing tonight.
4.) Many on here, myself leading the parade, have talked about pressing and running teams out of the gym. Clearly AU was bothered by press late in game, should we be pressing more, cause we haven’t really pressed all year…when you’re undersized, might as well speed up the game as much as possible and try to turn them over more…
LUHoops00February 10, 2012 at 6:20 am #4836
I am at a loss for words on this one. In response to the first question about Greiner. According to the announcer Adams was subbed in for Greiner because of physicality. CJ carried the load for the starters, Hamilton contributed early on. Adams and Hamilton were good last time out, so I would expect Reed to have some other cards up his sleeve. Gabe and Greiner just could not get it going, neither was Mackey as was stated above. I want the Hawks to do well, but I am a little worried at this point. Did this come down to who is the better coach? LU has a team that some coaches would die for, but unable to remain consistent. The PL playoffs will be interesting. I am open to all feedback since I don’t know what the heck happened.February 10, 2012 at 2:04 pm #4837
No defense 1st half , no offense 2nd half. Other than CJ and JH for a few minutes, no one else showed up to play.Very disappointing performanceFebruary 10, 2012 at 2:55 pm #4839
American “played physical” – meaning, they were bumping and shoving Lehigh around in the second half especially – and as a result Lehigh was out-of-sync offensively and lost the game. The refs were allowing both teams to get away with things, and American was better suited to take advantage.February 10, 2012 at 3:10 pm #4841
Home court advantage . Gabe 2 rebounds ? LU out rebounded 44-27. PatheticFebruary 10, 2012 at 3:28 pm #4843
I really thought this team had a chance to be special, but the more I watch them, they are just ordinary. After their superstar, they are just an inconsistent bunch, with role players who can’t figure out how to play their roles. They don’t shoot it well, they don’t rebound well, and they don’t defend very well. And, Reed hasn’t done a very good job of getting his team into a set rotation, where players know when they are going to play, how much, and what their role should be. Very disappointing. I was going to head up to Colgate game tomorrow night, then go to Bucknell, but that performance has taken a lot out of my desire. Knutson, Greiner and McKnight need to step up their play on both ends. CJ can’t win by himself.February 10, 2012 at 3:31 pm #4844
This is a pretty disheartening loss. Despite AU’s perfect home record, I think LU is the much more talented team and should have won this game.
In our two losses to PL teams not named Bucknell (i.e. teams I feel we are clearly better than) have a pretty massive point of commonality. Tony Wroblicky – who averages 6 and 6 – went for 18 pts and 17 boards. In the loss at HC, Dave Dudzinski – who averages 9 and 6 – went for 23 and 8 on 9-11 shooting. I think Gabe is one of the best big men in the PL, but he can’t keep getting torched by no-names on the road.
AU outrebounded LU 44-27. This is an insane difference. LU had 17 defensive boards and AU had 16 offensive boards. And this to a team that lost their best returning big man to baseball last year. I just don’t understand how it happens.
Also, why only 3 minutes for Schaefer? Was everyone else playing so well that he couldn’t get on the court? And lastly, this may be unfair because I obviously don’t see the team practice. But judging by his resume and limited court time Conroy Baltimore can rebound. Why don’t you give me a few minutes and see if he can neutralize the boards? In the least it would challenge the other guys and show them that if they won’t rebound that Reed will find someone who will.
This loss just baffles me.
February 10, 2012 at 3:39 pm #4846
- This reply was modified 8 years, 8 months ago by StablerBum.
On the press. I would love to see it in theory (primarily to show some other looks than the standard man to man that Reed is in love with), but I don’t think Lehigh has the personnel to be that effective with it. Pressing teams need quick guards, which Lehigh doesn’t have. McKnight and CJ can push tempo some and have the necessary foot speed to apply backcourt pressure, but outside of those 2, nobody else has any quickness. Plus, in my opinion, you need a higher basketball IQ to effectively press (knowing when and where to trap, etc), and McKnight is lacking there. He gets lazy with his feet and reaches, causing too many ticky tack fouls. Outside of those two, the rest of the smaller players are slow footed, which is why this team can never defend very well on the perimeter. Quick perimeter players get into the lane at will against them. The team shows very little desire to play solid defense for 40 minutes. They can play it in short spurts, but they are not dedicated to the defensive end of the court.February 10, 2012 at 3:48 pm #4847
Wroblicky just not that good. At worst Gabe should have split with him statwise. Instead he got crushed. I see no positives from this game. Are they just worn out. To me they played much better at the start of the seasonFebruary 10, 2012 at 4:53 pm #4848
Agree Rich. They looked better earlier in the season. Haven’t made any progress. Greiner was the early season spark, and he has been quiet.
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