January 14, 2011 at 7:30 pm #3121
LU (10-7….1-1) vs. ARMY (8-8…1-1)
Sagarin Rankings and Resulting Lines
Rankings (345 D-I schools)
Lehigh / Army
Sagarin: 155 / 236
RPI: 167 / 270
Pomeroy: 211 / 259
Resulting Line and Chance of Winning
Sagarin: LU – 13
Pomeroy: LU wins 80-71 (80 % Chance)
https://admin.xosn.com/fls/11100//10_11 … M_ID=11100
HC-ARMY Highlight Video and Army Coach Spiker’s post game comments:
http://www.goarmysports.com/mediaPortal … M_ID=11100
Live and Die by the Three
The Black Knights entered league play ranked nationally (Top 15) in three-point field goal percentage. Two games into PL play, they have converted on just 12 of 47 attempts (.255). Julian Simmons has 8 of those 12. The rest of team is 4 for 28 or .143. It’s bound to change; the shooters are just too good. In fact, five Army players are ranked within the PL’s Top 15 in 3pt. FG% (all games). They are: Simmons (.438), Hence (.431), Pancoe (.367), Herbeck (.360), and Ellis (.344). Simmons is by far the most prolific of the bunch, tossing up an average of 7 three point attempts a game. Michael Ojo (.400) is the only Lehigh man to make the Top 15, coming in at No. 7 and slotted below Simmons but above the other four Army players. How well we defend the perimeter will once again determine the winner of tomorrow night’s game.
Army Player to Watch
#20 Julian Simmons
5’11" / 187 lb / Junior Guard
Hometown: Katy, Texas
All Games Played Stats
Scoring: 17.2 (3rd in PL)
FT%: .810 (10th in PL)
3FG%: .438 (3rd in PL)
3Pt. FG Made: 3.1 (1st in PL)
Why shoot the 2 when a 3 will do? Fifty-six percent of his attempts come from long range where he has a better FG% (.438 compared to .369). At 17.2ppg, he’s Army’s leading scorer and has reached double figures in 16 of the 17 games played this year.
Last year Simmons was held in check by Lehigh in each of their three games, averaging just 9 ppg on .333 shooting.January 14, 2011 at 8:41 pm #3122
Without looking back, my guess is that Dave Buckberger defended Simmons last year. While much of my attention this year has been on replacing Marquis and Zahir, Dave’s defensive and 3-point shooting contributions are proving equally as difficult to replace.
Neither Ojo nor Keefer have distinguished themselves on defense in the past, and this is not a job that you want to give to CJ (expense of energy) or Mackey (freshman inexperience). Small is a possiblity, but that likely moves Mackey to the bench.
It will be interesting to see how the good Doctor plays this one.January 14, 2011 at 11:33 pm #3123
I’m thinking it’ll be:
Ojo (seen improvement in D in each of his 4 years) on Simmons
CJ on Hence
MM on McDonald (Mackey will be tested with this Sr. Guard out of Houston….wonder if Mackey knows of him)
GK on Springer
HG on Ellis
The last two "big men" pairings feature four sophomores with slight (2"-3") height and weight advantages going to us.
We should be able to score in the paint but still worry about the Black Knight 3’s.January 15, 2011 at 12:58 am #3124
Must win game at home versus inferior team. Have to control home court in PL, especially with American and Bucknell looking like early season creme de la creme of the league….LU can contend, we can win this again, but we have some growth to do, but when you have best player in league in a one n done competition in pl tourney, we can get it done…need gabe and band of character front court mates to get it going…January 15, 2011 at 2:30 pm #3125
More on Army’s 3’s……………
The Black Knights broke the school record with 14 triples at Yale. Army shot 56.0 percent from long range versus the Bulldogs (14-25).
Army was 12 for 20 from long range (.600) against Brown. It tied the Black Knights’ highest percentage ever in a game with at least 20 attempts.
Army’s 13 three-pointers in the win over Dartmouth broke the Black Knights’ Christl Arena record. The old mark of 12 occured six times, including twice this season. Holy Cross holds the overall arena record with 15 on Jan. 11, 2006.
Army leads the Patriot League with 9.6 three-point field goals per game. The Black Knights were ranked third in the nation in the last NCAA statistical report (through Jan. 9). Last season, the Black Knights made 5.5 triples per game. Army already has nine games with at least 10 three-pointers. The Black Knights did not make 10 threes in a game during the 2009-10 campaign.
In addition to making more threes than anyone in the Patriot League, Army is second in the conference and 16th nationally in three-point field goal percentage, knocking down 39.3 percent of its long-range attempts.
In its last 34 wins, Army is shooting 222 for 571 (.389) from long range. Army is 16-5 since the start of 2008-09 when shooting at least 40 percent from the three-point area. In their last 41 losses, the Black Knights are just 238 for 738 (.322) from long distance.
Army took an Academy-record 35 three-pointers at LIU. The previous mark was 34 vs. Holy Cross on Jan. 20, 1996.
If they’re falling, Army will cause problems for us and, or that matter, everyone else in the PL. Holy Cross escaped uninjured three nights ago with a win as the Black Knights hit on just 7 of 28. May we be as fortunate tonight.January 16, 2011 at 1:45 am #3126
What has reed seen over last two weeks that he didn’t learn over last 4 years about prentice small? Unreal horrible pass in mini-transition trying to find gabe down low who had a half-step on defender…threw it into first row….under 4 timeout, this has been tough to watch, so many unforced turnovers by LU….not sharp at all tonight..January 16, 2011 at 1:50 am #3127
We blow this, its going to haunt us down the line….January 16, 2011 at 2:03 am #3128
Tough to explain this one, up 14 at home….to worst team in league…man army owns us….and this team has not yet built any sustainable momentum at all this year…..we’ve got to get better….quickly…this was a disgrace…no way defending PL champ with best player league has ever seen should lose at home to this team…January 16, 2011 at 3:47 am #3129
Aside from our obvious problems with rebounding and defending in the forecourt, I don’t think you can overestimate the value of having a good and experienced point guard like we had in Marquis Hall last year and Bucknell has with Shazier this year. Prentice is a role player, he’s no Hall. Mackey is good but lacks experience. I think the team will improve greatly as the year goes on.
We don’t seem to know how to close out games in which we have commanding leads. That’s probably related to point guard play as well as end game strategies.
But, you can’t say that the team doesn’t play hard or that they are not entertaining to watch. CJ, in particular, makes a few amazing plays every game and today Safstrom even got to dunk!January 16, 2011 at 4:48 pm #3130
On the plus side………………
1. Simmons, Army’s top scorer, netted a quiet 10 on 2 for 8 shooting with – surprise, surprise – CJ on him for most of the night and nearly all the first half. I was expecting the taller Ojo to draw the assignment after reading Coach Reed’s comments to Michael LoRe of The Times Express following LU win over Navy on Wed. night, "Not only is he (Ojo) our best perimeter defender, but he brings a lot of the intangibles of hustle, intensity and energy that energizes some of our other players."
2. Continued strength from the foul line as LU dropped 21 of 25 (.840).
3. Greiner’s time and performance as the 5th starter. He got 27 minutes with a line score of: 7 pts., 3 boards, 3 blocks, and 2 steals. He continues to show a good touch from outside, dropping a three from the top of the key – reminiscent I suppose to his guard duties in high school.
4. Safstrom’s 2 for 3 shooting and 2 boards in limited playing time inserted to oppose Army’s Jordan Springer.
5. CJ’s record setting performance becoming the highest scoring active sophomore in the nation with 1018 points. Tonight it was 24 points and game-high 9 rebounds coupled with slashing moves, put-backs off the rim, no-look passes, pressure D, and resulting steals. While we drop to 1-2 in the PL Standings, you get the feeling that with CJ on our side a win is possible every time we take the court. It’s almost a question of when do you ask him to take over the game. Last night, the call may have come a minute late.
3 Point Shooting. Army’s 10 for 25 (.400) marked the 5th time the Black Knights have made double-digits three pointers this season. It’s not like we weren’t guarding them, we were. They just continued to click – no matter who was taking the shot. Everyone dressed in black who attempted a thee made at least one. On the flip side, LU attempted 13 and made 1. The drought continues for CJ in this area and must be reversed if we are to contend for a top spot in the league standings. Right now it doubtful we’ll be able to outscore AU, BU and others possessing interior size, strength and scoring powers on the interior. Some 3’s -more than the present 4+/game must be made for LU to move up the standings. As for CJ, since sinking 6 of 11 against Marist weeks ago, he has made just 1 of 16 from long range.
Inability to sustain pressure D. We go on 13-2 runs and get 4 consecutive stops and then take the foot off the pedal. College b’ball is a game of runs but LU takes it to the extreme. A more consistent D is needed if we are to advance.
Ojo – what will he give you? Last night it was 0-5 in 29 minutes. He did yank down 5 boards and played intense ball which you like to see. But, you just don’t know. His subs last night (D’Orazio and Keefer) were 3 for 5 in a combined 15 minutes. Since knocking down 8 fo 15 against NJIT in ad 33 point performance, Michael has come forward with 4, 7 and 5 point outings in PL play.January 16, 2011 at 6:24 pm #3131
Coming into this season, I thought what this team would most miss about the four guys from last year’s team who graduated was their leadership. Now I think it’s turning out to be their defense.
Zahir Carrington and Dave Buchberger would have made a big difference in the losses to American and Army.
Remember the game at Lafayette last year (the Leopards scorched us from 3). Next Saturday could be worse unless the defense tightens up. The implications for the rest of this season are frighteningJanuary 16, 2011 at 9:31 pm #3132
To add to what Hawker is saying, it’s the D and in partricular the 3POINT D!
3PT FG% D
All Games (18) – LU ranks 6th @ .363
PL Games (3) – LU ranks 8th and last @ .367
Further to Hawkers’ comment about Lafayette…………
This year the Leopards have taken 404 shots from long range (22.4/game) and make 142 (7.8/game). Army’s 20 attempts from deep was just a warm-up for us. We will be severly tested on Saturday over at the Kirby Sports Center.
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