January 25, 2011 at 9:59 pm #3165
LU (11 – 9….2 – 3) vs. BUCKNELL (14 – 7….5 – 0)
Sagarin Rankings and Resulting Lines
Rankings (345 D-I schools)
Lehigh / Bucknell
Sagarin Predictor: 182 / 98
RPI: 212 / 86
Pomeroy: 197 / 98
Resulting Line and Chance of Winning
Sagarin: BU – 3
Pomeroy: BU wins 74-69 (67% Chance)
Bucknell version……… http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/buc … high11.pdf
Lehigh version……..yet to be seen
The Varsity Blog (Morning Call)
http://blogs.mcall.com/varsity/2011/01/ … esday.html
Importance of Rebounding
I’m sure Bucknell won some games this year while being out-rebounded, but in the 7 games they lost, they were outrebounded! And, bby an average margin of -5.7 rpg. Those setbacks came to: Villanova, Marquette, St. Francis, Princeton, JMU, BC, and Wagner. Lehigh will need to do more than grab an additional six boards tomorrow night to win the game, but that’s still a stat worth noting.
Taking a look at the five PL games played to date, Lehigh leads Bucknell in offensive boards 11.4 to 7.6 per game while being their equal on the defensive end at about 26 per game. The Mountain Hawks are going to need to convert a fair number of those offensive misses into points if they expect to stay with the Bison who lead in practically every other category of note, e.g., Scoring Defense (12 point difference in BU’s favor), FG% (.471 to .431), FG% D (.367 to .411), as well as 3FG% and 3FG% D.
Get me to the Line
Both Lehigh and Bucknell shoot the ball well from the free throw line (.788 to .778 in PL play), but it’s where Lehigh makes its living. See below.
A. Point Distribution %
LU scores 27.3% of its points from the line (3rd highest in the nation) while BU scores on 19.3% of its points from the line (260th in the nation).
B. FT Attempt/FGA
Lehigh ranks 17th in the nation @ 47.7% whereas the Bison are 296th @ 31.7%.
Fouls to Give
Will we take that approach in trying to limit the touches that Muscala and Willman get while keeping somewhat clean the "fouls against" record of Knutson and Greiner? Not sure but it’s worth noting in light of the recent good play by McCarthy (6’10" freshman) and Safstrom (7’1" senior) and Coach Reed’s willingness to insert each into the game.
An Extra Possession or Two or Six
Will LU’s up-tempo offense (24trh fastest in the nation @ 72.2 possessions/game) have a positive impact on the outcome of the game going up against Bucknell’s rather pedestrian pace of 66 possessions/game?
CJ in Prime Time
No doubt this game qualifies as "prime time" and calls for a star-like performance from our best player. A win and we’re back in the race – albeit barely; a loss and the team sinks to 2-4 with HC and AU on the immediate horizon. Not a pleasant thought. While CJ’s game might not approach the levels of either Kent State (42 points and 7 boards) or Lafayette (23 points and 14 boards) – both prime time appearances, I do anticipate a solid effort for the co-captain and one that may well carry the team. If not, it won’t be for lack of effort. CJ is truly reason enough to be at the game with a PL Line of: #1 Scoring @ 21.7ppg (#10 in the nation), #1 Defensive Rebounds @ 5.5rpg, # 1 Steals @ 2.4pg, and #3 in FT% @ .846.
Passing of the Guards
Two of the best to play the position will go head-to-head at Stabler tomorrow night.
BU’s #13 Daryl Shazier (6’0", 178 lb senior)
5.5 apg and a TO Ratio of 4.0
LU’s #11 Mackey McKnight (6’0", 160 lb freshman)
3.8 apg and a TO Ratio of 2.2
Bucknell’s Last Visit to Stabler (2/24/10)
LU 81 / BU 59
Muscala, Johnson, Shazier, Cohen and Tyree were the Bison starters.
Muscala had 14 pts. and 9 rebounds while Carrington and Hall combined for just 11 pts. CJ and Knutson tallied 39.
Following the game, Coach Reed was quoted as saying, " “First and foremost I thought we dictated things tonight with our defensive pressure……….Bucknell is an excellent basketball team that was on a roll coming into tonight and so we knew that in order to be successful we had to get them out of their comfort zone and continually pressure the basketball.” This sounds like something he said following LU wins over Lafayette just three days ago. Let’s hope our D comes to play and Reed can say, "Same song-second verse" following tomorrow night’s game.
LU – BU
McKnight (6’0" Fr. G) – Shazier (6’0" Sr. G)
McCollum (6’3" So. G) – Cohen (6’5" Sr. G)
Ojo (6’5" Sr. G) – Johnson (6’1" S0. G)
Greiner (6’7" So. F) – Willman (6’7" So. F)
Knutson (6’9" So. F) – Muscala (6’11" So. F)
Isn’t it great to see 6 sophomores in the starting lineups? The next 2 1/2 years should be fun!January 26, 2011 at 1:47 am #3166
Good analysis. One correction – Bucknell’s Cohen is only a junior. I think Cohen may well be the key to the game, since he is the league’s best defender. If he stays out of foul trouble, BU’s chances of a win go up significantly.January 27, 2011 at 1:19 am #3173
I’ve never seen a coach get that far into the court then reed just there, wow! I don’t even know what to say. Season seems to be slipping away though, and so out of character for reed there, but maybe just maybe we look back at this in March as a turning point for the season…heck it can’t get any worse then this very second I’m typing, cause we’re getting throttled at home here.January 27, 2011 at 10:55 pm #3177
Coach Reed’s double technical, which by his own admission was intended to be a single (listen to Hoop Time’s audio interview below) , was clearly intentional – a measured response if ever there ever was one. Don’t be fooled, the "Good Doctor" – as many like to call him – knew exactly what we was doing. It was an uncharacteristic move done with characteristic grace and I loved it! While the officiating was bad on both sides of the ball resulting in 74 free throw attempts, it couldn’t compare to the way the Brown and White performed in the early going of each half of play. It was after all their biggest game of the year, wasn’t it? It was on home court, wasn’t it? It was coming off their best performance to date against archrival Lafayette, wasn’t it? It was a game against a team that traveled via a bus on game day, wasn’t it? It was a team we beat in each of their last three trips into Stabler, wasn’t it? Yet, the guys played at times as if they had never sat before their coach in a blackboard session or ever heard the word "teamwork." It was bad – real bad. The sorry stats tell it all…….9 points of offense in the first 10+ minutes of play……….2 points in the first 3:07 of the second half – a segment that featured 3 missed jumpers, 2 missed three-pointers, 2 personal fouls, and a missed layup. But, the X’s and O’s weren’t the worse part, it was instead: heart, passion, and leadership – all ID’ed by the coach and all missing and for extended periods of time. What else is a coach to do but stand up and take one for the team? Sadly, it didn’t work. It made for good theater, however.
So what now? Start CJ and 4 others off the bench against Holy Cross on Saturday? Noting would surprise me.
On the plus side, we did cut into the 25 point lead and lose by just 13 after battling to score 43 in the second half (BU had 44), we did win the rebounding battle 46 to 33, we did make 32 of 40 FTs (CJ was 14 for 14), we did get Jordan back into the rotation after injury, we did see continued improvement in McCarthy’s play, and we did commit just 8 turnovers.
Got a feeling what you see on Saturday will be nothing like what you saw last night. With 8 games remaining, there’s still time for this team to find itself.
Hoop Time’s Story:
http://news.hooptimeonline.com/post/295 … -at-lehigh
Hoop Time’s Audio Interview:
http://news.hooptimeonline.com/post/295 … eed-on-theJanuary 28, 2011 at 5:23 pm #3179
This may not be popular here, but I saw this as "one of those games" for Lehigh where Bucknell simply played lights-out. Sure, the officiating was pathetic, but Bucknell was unconscious at the free-throw line and were unconscious from outside, too. Lehigh did fall behind early as they opened sloppy at Bucknell jumped on them – yes, that was a focus problem early. But this is at its core an extremely young team, four of five underclassman starters, and when you face off against a disciplined, focused team like the Bison – this group fought in the second half and made them earn it.
The best you can say is that this game was a teaching moment as to what it’s going to take to repeat as champions. You have to play hard for 40 minutes. There’s signs that they did get the message.January 28, 2011 at 6:21 pm #3180
"lfnadmin" wrote: Bucknell was unconscious at the free-throw line and were unconscious from outside, too.
Bucknell did shoot extremely well from the FT line, although that is not a huge surprise considering BU is third in the nation in FT pct. However BU shot below average on both twos and threes. They did start out shooting pretty well but were only 5-14 from beyond the arc in the first half – below average – and Bryson Johnson, who is hitting almost 50% on threes for the year, was only 2-6. BU’s shooting may have looked unconcious, however, compared to the LU 0-13 from beyond the arc – which was a big factor in the game.January 28, 2011 at 7:09 pm #3181
B137 is right on with his comments. I was expecting (imagine he was, too) that the FTs would equal-out as both teams are "money" from the line (BU is ranked 3rd in the nation; LU comes in at #19). In a way, they did……….while BU out-shot us 88.2% to 80%, we edged-out the Bison 32-30 in terms of points from The Line in a game that saw nearly 42 of all points scored come from 15′ away.
As mentioned before in my earlier posting under different headings, one of my biggest fears then and now is our team’s abilty – or lack thereof – to knock them down shots from beyond the arc. It came home to roost again in the sorry 0-13 performance against BU. Hit 3 or 4 of those shots and play respectable "D" in the early minutes of each half and you have a different game – one that could have gone either way.
A closer look at LU 3’s, shows that we are ranked 250th in the nation hitting on just 32.2% of our attempts. In PL play, the numbers are worse (see below) and could spell big trouble for us unless the trend is reversed.
Overall: 27 for 98 .276
In our 2 wins: 13 of 41 .317 (still not good)
In our 4 loses: 14 pf 57 .246 (a fan in the stand might have matched it)
I say, turn the page and get ready for Holy Cross.
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