November 17, 2014 at 2:26 pm #16722
According to KenPom
Lehigh (0-1) ranked 213th
Canisius (1-0) ranked 189th
Lehigh wins 73-70 (61% chance)
How did KenPom do projecting winners in opening day games?
He hit the bull’s-eye predicting a 6 point Army win over Air Force but missed the mark badly (expect better as the season rolls along) in his Harvard over Holy Cross and Robert Morris over Lafayette projections. Upsets each, the Crusaders and Leopards are feeling it tonight (log onto the Cross’ Message Board you don’t believe me @http://s2.excoboard.com/Crossports/33741/2440795). For that matter, so is Army as the Black Nights picked up their second win of the season on Saturday. That one was over VMI . Congrats to both for carrying the PL banner in early competition.
Projected / Actual
Villanova by 14 over Lehigh / Villanova by 12
LaSalle by 9 over Colgate / LaSalle by 5
Army by 6 over Air Force / Army by 6
Harvard by 10 over Holy Cross / Holy Cross by 1
Michigan State by 13 over Navy / Michigan State by 5
Bucknell by 7 over Marist / Bucknell by 3
Temple by 6 over American U. / Temple by 3
Robert Morris by 6 over Lafayette / Lafayette by 27
Texas Tech by 11 over Loyola (MD) / Texas Tech by 3
Northeastern by 3 over Boston U. / Northeastern by 6
Up next, the Golden Griffins* of Canisius
• For those that need a reminder of just what a griffin is……….
The griffin, griffon, or gryphon (Greek: γρύφων, grýphōn, or γρύπων, grýpōn, early form γρύψ, grýps; Latin: gryphus) is a legendary creature with the body, tail, and back legs of a lion; the head and wings of an eagle; and an eagle’s talons as its front feet. Because the lion was traditionally considered the king of the beasts and the eagle the king of birds, the griffin was thought to be an especially powerful and majestic creature
Projected to finish in the middle of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) pack, Canisius knocked-off what many believe will be the top-dog in the American East Conference (AEC), Vermont, in opening day action up in Buffalo. Here’s a game recap which saw 6’7” sophomore forward, Phil Valenti, score 24 points on 9 for 15 (3 out of 4 from long range) shooting in his 24 minutes on the court:
While the team lost 62.5% of their rebounding from a year ago and graduated 77.6% of its scoring offense, they appear to be an able – perhaps equally talented opponent. Please, may we not overlook this team in the wake of our better than expected showing against 12th ranked Villanova.November 17, 2014 at 5:28 pm #16723
Tough to handicap this one. Obviously, Canisius lost Billy Baron, who was a great college player. Was an impact player in some games as a frosh at UVa, then followed his dad on to URI and Canisius. Billy put up some huge numbers, and obviously, had the greenlight from his old man to put it up.
What is striking to me about Canisius is their play in exhibition games. They lost to Damean College, who I have never even heard of, by 2 in OT, and squeaked by some team called Ryerson, who is a Canadian school. Wow. I’m shocked that they beat UVm in their opener, as UVm is a solid program.
Lehigh at home in this one, you have to take the Mountain Hawks by double digits. 75-62.November 17, 2014 at 7:17 pm #16724
65, I gotta tell ya your pregame analysis is something I look forward to and is probably something people would pay for. Your references to KenPom last year led me to investigate and then subscribe this year. I’m a closet Excel freak, but I’m still trying to digest a third, let alone all of his calculations. It is amazing how close he gets to the opening night scores with no actual season statistics yet. And as to the Canisius game, obviously we need to win this to keep KenPom on our side. But more seriously, I think we blow them out if we shoot as well as Friday and have the same energy. Quite likely we don’t shoot as well, but should still be ok if we clean up the TO’s and have the same aggresive nature overall, particularly from TK and AP. Two personnel questions from Friday; Was JG benched second half for that wild pass that went over the scorers table? And how come no CB?November 17, 2014 at 10:00 pm #16739November 18, 2014 at 6:26 pm #16753
Canisius has finally issued their Game Notes. See below:
One particular passage caught my eye. It follows………..
TURNING DEFENSE INTO OFFENSE
Canisius head coach Jim Baron often talks about turning defense into offense – and the Griffs
put that theory on display Saturday in the 64-60 win over Vermont.
The Griffs forced Vermont into 17 turnovers in the season-opener for both teams, the most
turnovers for the Catamounts in a game since 2010-11. Off those 17 turnovers, Canisius was able
to score 15 points.
Take heed, Lehigh, the Griffs will be out to turn us over and, after reviewing our Villanova game experiences, they’re probably thinking “why not.” On Friday, you may call in the game against Villanova, we gave the ball up 23 times (13 via the steal). Or, said another way, we offered up the ball via an opponent’s steal in 17.7% of our offensive possessions. Not good. In fact, it ranks 320th in D-1 play. Canisius, on the other hand has proved to be – albeit after just one game* – hard to “pick-pocket,’ losing the ball in just 3.1% of their possessions. Just another area of focus tonight for those in attendance or watching on line.
• While the data is limited (one game), it can be said that in last year’s play, Canisius bested Lehigh when it came to protecting the ball while on offense as well as stealing the ball away while on defense.November 18, 2014 at 6:32 pm #16754
Headed to the game alone, where is the best place in town to grab a beer and where is the best place for a nice but not over the top expensive room! I realize off topic just looking for some input from all you Lehigh lifers.November 18, 2014 at 6:50 pm #16757
Although the arena is pretty secluded, there is a Comfort Inn right off campus and the Tally Ho has really good bar food,almost next door. Both are very close to the Lehigh campus, although a few miles from Stabler Arena.
Is anyone else going to the game tonight? I will be and I’m always looking to put faces to names. Just pick a time and a place.November 18, 2014 at 6:53 pm #16758
Reiterate nova comments in that we will get a better look at BA today, just a hunch.November 18, 2014 at 7:25 pm #16762
TMH sound good thanks!November 18, 2014 at 7:50 pm #16764
I think we stand to learn a lot more about this year’s team tonight than we did on Friday. For a lot of reasons, Friday was unusual – the “mystique” of a big-time ranked team, the big new arena, nova’s trapping press, etc.
Things I’m looking to see: extended minutes for KR, interior D (which we almost didn’t have to play vs. nova), can AP repeat his performance, and what the rotation will look like. I’m guessing that, for the nova game, we were probably doing a lot of experimenting.
I saw the same thing in the earlier Canisius results – they’ve generated a lot of TOs too. Should be a good test – did we learn and adjust?
Also agree with jimk72 – love the pregame analysis! And it led me to a KenPom subscription this year too! I think he should be paying you a commission, 65!November 18, 2014 at 8:08 pm #16766
pafan11, TMH, and others………….I’ll be in my customary seat (Sect. 4, Row EE, Seat 1) and anxious to meet pre-game. May be down on the sidelines near doors leading out to front entrance during warm-up drills.November 19, 2014 at 2:16 am #16770
I missed the Nova game so this was my first chance to watch the team. Few observations:
– I think this team will be really good…next year. I said it in preseason and I’ll say it again, I think this year will be a rollercoaster. Too much youth for any sort of consistency.
– Watching the game I thought Tim didn’t play great, but he still ended up with 19 and 7. Could have been 25 with some more generous roles. Stud.
– I got overexcited after seeing AP’s Nova box score. I like his increased aggresiveness, but he still needs to be smarter on both ends and find more ways to influence the game. He had a few unlucky roles, but also some bad shots.
– Really liked JG’s energy. Don’t care if he starts or comes off the bench, but he needs equal minutes to JC.
– I thought MS did an admirable job filling in at the point when KR had foul trouble in the first half.
– Really liked BA’s aggressiveness attacking the rim. A HUGE element that last year’s team lacked (and really since CJ) is a perimeter guy that can get to the cup and finish or get fouled. Was excited to see that plus a couple really nice passes.
– Seems like CS isn’t sure of his role on this team.
Real sloppy game overall. Tough to win the battle of the boards and hold the opponent to 32% shooting and still lose. But the offense/execution was that bad. Some really poor turnovers and inability to finish inside. Hopefully the good side of this team comes out for the weekend and they get their first W of the season.November 19, 2014 at 2:39 am #16771
I’m afraid I’m with ya, Bum, on the rollercoaster. Shooting was shockingly bad tonight; night and day difference from nova game. AP just never found his shot, and nobody else picked that up. We definitely had some bad luck with rolls – but that doesn’t account for 33% from the floor and 20% from 3. Ouch. And 63% from the line, while better, still won’t cut it.
On the upside, it was nice to win the battle on the glass for a change, and I saw some promising lineup combinations. Totally agree on BA’s ability to attack. He also adds added rebounds from the wing that we just haven’t been getting – in a long time.
Turnovers were bad again, and they weren’t press/trap related. Just bad passes, motion that looked out of synch, plus travels and offensive fouls.
We can’t shoot that badly often… right?November 19, 2014 at 2:49 am #16772
Roller coaster for sure. Disappointing game. AP and KR were just bad. Would liks to say TOs ser forced by Canisius D,cept most weren’t. We did it to ourselves. Guess better now than durig PL as long as Doc settles them down. BA was fun to watch.November 19, 2014 at 3:43 am #16773
Start with the good.
1. BA- as predicted I thought we would see more of him/expanded role and boy did he not disapoint. You saw a lot to like tonihjt, a guy who can get to the rim, accepts and absorbs contact, and gets to the line. He lined up and knocked down a trifecta and had some great interior passes. A full 6’5 wing to help on glass and can help vs press with his guard skills, loved effort tonihjt.
2. SBum noted it, kempton had a ton roll in and out. Could have had a bigger night. Had a few to many turnovers though but one or two were tough calls.
3. JG – numbers don’t tell story, he was a mad man all over the place, loved energy.
4. Defense and rebounds – shocked we lost this game with both of these being positives but was that kind of nigjt.
Ap had off shooting night.
KR didn’t do a ton in more expanded minutes.
Shooting in general tonight was bad.
Turnovers again and again again – way to many empty trips due to throwing the ball away. Has got to clean up and quickly.
SBum – young team for sure, will be turbulence, got to hope settles down for league play and gets hot at right time. Talent is here, reed needs to bring then together and clicking.
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