March 27, 2012 at 2:02 pm #5648
For what they are worth, I checked out about a dozen 2012 NBA Mock Drafts. Most have been updated since his NCAA performances. None project him to get picked in the first round of the 2012 Draft. Most that project the full 2 round draft, do not have him being picked in either round of the 2012 Draft. He is projected to be drafted in the first round of the 2013 NBA Draft, around pick 20. He is currently projected as between the 5th and 10th ranked NCAA Junior.
Obviously, you have to take this information with a grain of salt, but it appears extremely unlikely that he will be a first round pick this season. Therefore, I would expect him to not even test the waters this year. There is no way he is going to hire an agent. I am fairly certain he will be in the #3 brown/white Lehigh jersey next season.
March 27, 2012 at 2:20 pm #5650
- This topic was modified 8 years, 7 months ago by lehigh90.
Why do you think he wouldn’t test the waters? It costs nothing (as long as he doesn’t hire an agent) and he would get to go to certain pre-draft workouts etc and test himself against other players and get some experience with the process.March 27, 2012 at 3:38 pm #5652
I don’t think it makes a lot of sense to test the waters unless you are on the bubble, and he doesn’t look like a bubble case. He is not on anyone’s board really as an first round option. He is not on most of the second round boards. By going to workouts, he may improve his stock, but it would be doubtful he plays himself off of boards into the first round. Being a second round pick is worse than being a free agent, as there is no guaranteed contract, and at least as a free agent, you can pick your team. If he goes to workouts and does poorly, then his stock plummets, even for 2013. So, I think he is better not showing his cards at this point. I think the upside is limited, or maybe better said, there is a ceiling to the upside. Upside would be play yourself into very late in first round, but more likely into second round. Floor is basically unlimited, he could really drop in the scout’s eyes for next season. Minor issues are injury (small chance), and he has played a lot of basketball, last season, last summer and this season, and maybe could use a break.
I think in these draft situations, the teams love the unknown much more than the known. And, you have to be fearful on hurting your stock. It is why a lot of NFL guys don’t work out at the combine. They have a pro day and do a little bit, not to hurt their stock. Teams also are more likely to take a late first round flyer on a big man, rather than a guard. If he works out for teams this draft go round, and doesn’t really impress, then stays in school, when he comes back in ’13 a lot of teams think, OK here is CJ McCollum again, we saw him last year, and he wasn’t that impressive, and I think that hurts him a little.
My opinion, obviously, he could workout and be amazing, but he is always going to have the stigma that a small school (poor competition) brings. I think for a guy like him, he can come back to a solid team, make another good run at the NCAA, maybe play more point, shoot the ball better, enhance his skills, and improve his stock for the ’13 draft. He can also get a degree, which he could get later, but it would be nice to put it to bed. I have heard no indication that he/his family are in a financial bind, and in need of money. Maybe he thinks he can go to workouts and blow the competition away, but that is doubtful. One big concern I have as an NBA team, is there were collegiate games where he was stifled against Patriot League competition. I know Cohen is a great defender, but it is the PL. Guys in the NBA have crazy superhuman athleticism. If I see a guy with atheliticism far below the NBA level locking up a guy (on many occasions) that worries me a bit as an NBA team with a first round pick. As a scout, I have to think if a guy like that can really limit him, what is a professional guard (PG or SG) going to be able to do. If he goes out his senior season and nobody stops him, that removes that fear.March 27, 2012 at 6:58 pm #5653
ESPN Radio reports he has now declared for the draft – but without an agent. That doesn’t surprise me.
While it is true, his draft status could fall, that is not a big issue since he would then have a full year and another set of camps to raise it again. But if he does well in camps, he could raise his stock and gain an immediate dividend – one that may or may not be available next year.
If he stays and fails to improve next year by the expected amount, then his draft status would fall. Also there is the injury risk. If he tears up a knee, then his chance for NBA or Europe dollars could fly out the window.
March 27, 2012 at 7:02 pm #5654
- This reply was modified 8 years, 7 months ago by Bison137.
Confirmed by CBS Sports:
“This is a great opportunity for me to receive valuable information and feedback on my future,” McCollum said in a release. “Playing in the NBA has always been a dream of mine and I feel blessed to even be considered.””March 27, 2012 at 7:21 pm #5656
Smart for the kid, not good for people on here, minus Bison of course…opens up door to possibility of leaving, but hey, I think this is right decision for CJ to make, go check it out and get feedback. I still think it is low odds he leaves, but we’ll see, its an open door now and we could be left on the outside looking in!
Thanks to bison137 for the breaking news, now go run to your own board and go tell everyone about it while complaining about how you thought it would be impossible for LU attendance to go down next year but if CJ goes it will definitely drop! FYI – you will continue to get beaten on by me for your disappearing act post BU loss in PL finals as people were calling you out for bad sportsmanship! Everyone on BU board was so awesome except the one troll who posts on here, amazing.March 27, 2012 at 7:29 pm #5657
I’m glad CJ put his name in, and this is what I was expecting all along. To suggest that he is worried about not impressing at workouts and hurting his stock is to suggest that he isn’t a competitor and isn’t confident that he has the talent to play in the NBA. If he had dropped 30+ on Xavier, then I agree that it is quite likely his stock would never be higher (a la Steph Curry who took Davidson to the Elite 8 I believe), but that isn’t what happened.
This way he can put his name in the draft and get on the radar of any teams/scouts that aren’t aware of him already. He can go through the process of going to workouts. Not to mention that potentially invaluable feedback he should get from the Advisory committee and various teams. If what NBA teams are concerned with are his ability to do x and y, why wouldn’t he want to find that out to give him a chance to improve on those things next year if he comes back? I really don’t think he has anything to lose by putting his name in.
If I were in his shoes, I would go through the process, and unless I had an absolute garauntee to be a 1st round pick come back to LU. He can then continue to hone is game and (hopefully) enjoy the fruits of this year’s labor by becoming the BMOC and seeing larger crowds than Stabler has seen in years and helping his boys Gabe and Holden win a 3rd PL crown. If he IS a 1st round pick, then he gets 3 years of garaunteed money and gets to live a lifelong drfeam. Sounds like a win-win to me.
March 27, 2012 at 7:46 pm #5660
- This reply was modified 8 years, 7 months ago by StablerBum.
Awful news, and in my opinion, a big mistake. How many guys have we seen do this, get bogus information from a NBA team, then hire an agent who puffs them up even more, then draft day comes, and he goes second round or not at all. Then off to the D league to never be heard from again. Or, if you get lucky, you are off to Turkey to play for a team that may decide to just not pay you and you are screwed. Somebody is giving this kid poor advice, in my opinion. If he plays himself into Round 1, then good for him, but I don’t see that as a likely outcome.March 27, 2012 at 8:00 pm #5661
90 – I gotta disagree here. Maybe it was just me, but I assumed all along he was going to declare. It gives him the opportunity to experience the process. I highly, highly doubt he would get mistakenly swayed by a team to the extent he hires an agent. Everything I have seen, and everyone I have talked to, indicates he is a smart kid, as are his parents, and he would not be influenced into a decision. I was told after the Duke game by some sources that he is definitely staying. That could have changed in the past week or so, but they seemed quite confident and knew the situation closely.
For someone who has NBA aspirations, he has to, in my opinion, give himself the chance to play into the 1st round. He is a competitor and could have a once in a lifetime opportunity (injury, bad year, etc.). I haven’t checked out many other sites/mock drafts, but Chad Ford has him as one of his first 5 guys out of the first round right now. If he is that close to the first round, he has to go through this process I believe. So many things can happen, heck he could stay and not get drafted next year and end up in the D league anyway.March 27, 2012 at 8:08 pm #5662
I misunderstood the process. And, reading this article has me even more confused:
This seems to say that he has really no way to test the waters. Unless he goes back to Lehigh by April 10, he has foregone his NCAA eligibility. So, there will be no workouts to play himself into anything. All he is going to get is an opinion from the Advisory Board and nothing else.
I am understanding this?March 27, 2012 at 8:42 pm #5664
90 – I believe you are right. I just read an Andy Katz article the other day that essentially said the new rule makes no sense. However, I do see some value in the Advisory Board. That IS why it exists after all.
06 – I’m with you. I fully expected him to declare and think he would be crazy not to.
Lastly, if he ends up in the D-League or Europe it’s 90% because that is where he belonged all along. It’s great to be drafted in the first round and get 3 years to prove yourself while getting paid. However if he goes through all the workouts and nobody picks him this year or next. And he goes to training camp and doesn’t make a team and ends up in the D-League or Europe – it will be because he wasn’t good enough. Not because he did or didn’t declare for the draft at the right time.March 27, 2012 at 8:52 pm #5665
Reading through that entire article, he will only have the Advisory Board opinion and any opinion Reed receives from NBA GMs before April 10. The tone of article basically indicates the NCAA has usurped the NBA deadlines by imposing this April 10 deadline that essentially forces the players to make a decision without any combines or private team workouts – all with the goal of having more players decide to stay in college. Plus it says the Advisory Board tends to be conservative.
I think the confusing aspect is that a player, per the NBA (not NCAA) has until April 29th to declare. So technically, if I understand it correctly, CJ could declare as he has already, withdraw his name on April 10th to keep the NCAA eligibility, then declare again by April 29th. At that point, he would lose NCAA eligibility, but would have had 19 days to gain more information, albeit secretly and illegally by NCAA standards. That is assuming he could theoretically declare twice, which I cannot tell from the article would be a correct assumption or not. The article insinuates there is no real benefit to declaring before April 29th, as a player can hear from the board without declaring. And they would still have their eligibility up until the date they did declare. The only consequence is the player has to undeclare by April 10th.
Clearly, the NCAA and NBA need to agree to a mutual date. It appears the NCAA (the non-profit entity right??) has tried to pull a power move here in order to keep underclassmen in school. And don’t tell me the reason is to help these kids graduate.
March 27, 2012 at 9:27 pm #5667
- This reply was modified 8 years, 7 months ago by LU06.
Other side of this, from article, is that the Advisory Board will be very conservative in saying where he will go. For him, I believe that would be second round. Don’t think they could “advise” him that he is a first rounder. So, what is he really getting here? He’s not losing anything by putting name in, and really not getting much either.
06, on the deadlines, you have until 4/3 to opt in to Advisory opinion, you get that opinion by 4/6, then to keep NCAA eligibility you have to withdraw by 4/10. If you want to skip the Advisory stuff, then you opt in to draft by 4/29, but you lose eligibility. You can’t work out for teams until the Early Entrant list is put together which is 5/3 or 5/4. Then you can start working out, and go to Combine in June. You can pull out of Draft again by 6/18, but that is really only for guys who have a place to play (Euros), as the NCAA guys have lost their eligibility. At least that is how I read it. It is a ridiculous process, clearly.
But, CJ will really have very little info to go on, by 4/10. Reading all of this, I am now more of the opinion that his Lehigh career is over.March 27, 2012 at 9:48 pm #5669
First, good luck to C.J. When push comes to shove, I can’t begrudge C.J.’s at least looking into the possibility of making a better life for himself and his family if indeed the chance of millions of dollars is real.
Second, folks are talking about that advisory board input – and the input of the NBA GMs – as chopped liver. That’s a huge part of this process. If he stays home for his senior year, he doesn’t get that professional feedback, information on what they’re looking for, or what he might need to work on.
Third, as long as you’re not seeking to assuage your ego, isn’t this basically a risk-free thing to do? There is absolutely no downside to C.J. to doing this. He does it, he gets free feedback from professionals, gets to talk to NBA GM’s and other experts (not AGENTS, whose job it would be to tell him how great he is every single day). He doesn’t do this, he then sits and wonders what might happen next year, and what they’re thinking.
Suppose you’re a materials engineer. It’s your junior year. You have the opportunity to talk with industrial leaders in your field and the materials engineering advisory board will give you an evaluation of your research. If you do, you can discover if your research will be worth millions of dollars now, or if you should return to school to refine the work and make even more money later.
Or, you could stay home and wonder if your research is going in the right direction.
Put in that way, isn’t this a no-brainer?
I wouldn’t read too much into this.March 27, 2012 at 11:48 pm #5670
Agreed, zero downside, and perhaps he gets some insight into what to spend his summer improving on. Good move CJ, smart, sure he researched this well and I’m positive the good DR is assisting him throughout this process.
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