January 18, 2011 at 9:21 pm #3135
LU (10-8….1-2) vs. COLGATE (2-15…0-3)
Sagarin Rankings and Resulting Lines
Rankings (345 D-I schools)
Lehigh / Colgate
Sagarin: 187 / 334
RPI: 193 / 330
Pomeroy: 206 / 334
Resulting Line and Chance of Winning
Sagarin: LU – 10
Pomeroy: LU wins 78-67 (85 % Chance)
http://www.gocolgateraiders.com/documen … df?id=1670
Before realizing that Colgate had slipped in an OOC game against Dartmouth on Monday afternoon, I began this preview by saying: "The Raiders have won once this year and that was on the road (Farmville, VA) at Longwood. In a scheduling oddity, they’ll face Longwood again – this time in Hamilton – on February 20th." CORRECTION – The raiders have won twice this year! The second game was yesterday as they turned back Dartmouth 67-64 (see story below) on the strength of Pascale’s work in the paint and double-digit scoring from Gyawu and Venezia (apparently back and at full strength). Great, just what we needed – a healthy Venezia and some renewed confidence coming off a win for a team that has – in years past – had our number up at Cotterrell Gym.
http://www.dartmouthsports.com/ViewArti … M_ID=11600
Despite the Dartmouth effort, the height-challenged Raiders (yes, Pascal is 6’10" but the next tallest active contributor is Gyawu at 6’5") have found it difficult sledding in the early PL going dropping their first three games – 2 at home and 1 on the road – by 7, 11, and 9 points, respectively. Their best effort came against AU at home this past Saturday with Gyawn, Rolls and Venezia combining for 48 of Colgate’s 57 points. The Raiders actually had the game tied at 35 early in the second half before falling prey to AU’s size and strength in the persons of Vlad Moldoveanu and Stephin Lumpkins. The two combined for 40 points and 13 boards. A few days earlier, Lafayette’s big guy, 6’9" Jared Mintz, had his way, as well, dropping 21 pts. on 9 for 14 shooting in the Leopards’ win over the home-standing Raiders. With any luck, our "bigs" of Knutson, Greiner, Safstrom, Hamilton, Mineri, and Adams (if dressed and ready to go) should have little problem doing the same as we seemingly stack up well against CU’s "other" big men: 6’11" Brandenbert and 6’9" Bogdanovic – neither of whom see extended minutes.
Look for Reed to pound the ball into the lane tomorrow night to test Pascal with the hope of drawing a few early "personals" and limit his time on the court. Getting to the line has been our MO this year and why not, we’re hitting 83.6% of our free throws this year in PL play and rank second in the nation in terms of % of Team Pts. Earned at the Free Throw Line @ 28.2%. The top team in the nation scoring 28.5% of its points from the charity line is Ball State. Sound familiar? It should. It’s now the home of Billy Taylor who has his Cardinals off to a 11-4….3-0 start in the Mid-American Conference. Back to Colgate…….look for them to test out 3FG Defense – the league’s worse @ .367. Lucky for us the CU 3FG offense is ranked just 6th @ .286. Hobbs, Rolls and Venezio are the main threats. Yet only Rolls his for > .300. Sooner or later you’d expect one or both of these two teams to begin to click from long distance. As mentioned in earlier posts, I believe it has to happen for LU to compete for the PL title this year. Maybe we’ll see each team attempt to turn around their fortunes from beyond the arc tomorrow night. LU makes just 4.7 three’s per game which is one better than CU’s 3.7/game – rock bottom in the PL standings.January 18, 2011 at 10:24 pm #3136January 20, 2011 at 1:59 am #3140
Man if they blow this one….I don’t even know where to begin..January 20, 2011 at 2:08 am #3141
This team is just throwing wins away at this point. Very disappointing AGAIN!January 20, 2011 at 2:10 am #3142
Wow. Two straight double digit leads blown in the last 10 minutes to two of the worst teams in the league, if not country. Tough to swallow.January 20, 2011 at 5:00 am #3143
"StablerBum" wrote: Wow. Two straight double digit leads blown in the last 10 minutes to two of the worst teams in the league, if not country. Tough to swallow.
Army is nowhere close to being one of the worst teams in the country. Prior to tonight, Sagarin has them at 220th (out of 345) and only slightly behind LU. After tonight, the two teams will be very close. As for Colgate, can’t dispute them being one of the worst – although they are a lot tougher now that Venezia is back from his knee injury.January 20, 2011 at 4:27 pm #3145
B137 is right. Colgate is a different team – and one that will cause problems for others this year – with Mike Venezia on the floor. Twelve points in 28 minues last night is probably what others can expect going forward.
As for last night, there’s no excuse – except bad play – for what happened. Giving up and 8-0 run midway thru the second half after being up by 12 just can’t happen. Worse yet, it did and it came 4 days after a similar meltdown against Army. A once proud defense has fallen on hard times and/or deft ears. Coach Reed knows it and must find answers soon. With 10 games remaining on the PL schedule and facing teams what are a combined 12-4 over the next four, it’s crunch time. Slip up now and kiss off a chance for a home playoff game on March 2nd. Turn it around now – beginning at Kirby on Saturday – and know your offense will keep you most every game you play with the league championship still a possibility.
The good, the bad and the ugly.
PL Games Only
LU #1 Scoring Offense @ 74.2ppg
LU #8 Scoring Defense @ 75.0ppg
LU #7 3FG% Offense @ .281
LU #7 #FG% Defense @ .353
LU #8 3pt. FG Made @ 4.5 per gameJanuary 20, 2011 at 6:59 pm #3147
More reflections on last night’s game:
Roommates CJ and Gabe have to be kicking themselves after missing the front-end of one and ones last night. In CJ’s case, he did the same days earlier against Army. Of course, the kid went 10 for 12 from the line in those two contests and willingly takes the blame. That’s just the way CJ is. You see it and you hear it in his interviews. As for Gabe, a .794 shooter from 15′ entering last night’s game, going 2 for 6 from the charity stripe must have made it a long bus ride home from Hamilton.
It wasn’t just Gabe. Instead, 7 of the 8 Lehigh players that went to the line, left at least one point there as the team hit 12 of 22 (.545). The team had entered the game shooting .745.
Sterling Melville (6’4" f), surprise contributor, got the start for CU and responded with game high/season high 15 pts. and 5 rebounds in 25 min. He had been averaging 4 point and 11 minutes per game.
LU double-teamed the ball well at times and caused an occasional turnover but was far too slow in its retreat to man coverage resulting in too many open looks for Colgate shooters who were willing to oblige shooting 47.5% from the floor.
Steals and turnovers normally "equal-out" for CJ but last night they didn’t. They went against our guy 5:1 and net-net lead to Raider points.
Seldom see Reed explode but was apparent he didn’t like the official’s non-call on CJ’s shot in the closing seconds.
Exciting game to watch if you weren’t wearing the brown and white with 10 ties and 16 lead changes.
The emergence of Holden Greiner as our 5th starter with 11 points and 9 boards last night. PL game averages include: 26 minutes, 8.5 points, and 5 rebounds per game.
CJ cans a couple of long distance shots. He and the team (7 for 15 last night) had been in a severe drought.
19 assists on 30 made baskets. More like it!
Ojo from three! Hitting 3 of 4 raised his average to .402.
Point Guard Play. PS and MM combined for 10 assists and just 2 turnovers last night.
Season-high FG% last night @ .536. Like I say, scoring will not be a problem this year, it’s the D.
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.