Drive for Show, Putt for Dough, Win the 20th for The Show

[LUHoops00Participant]

So, creative subject/titles aside, the point of this thread is to hear your predictions. I stole the ole’ golf saying as an appetizer for the following, if we make the NCAA Tournament, we will have 20 more games to play pre-NCAA Tourney game, and we’d obviously need to have won the last game aka number 20 to get to the Show….

So, with that as an introduction, how do you see LU doing in the last 3 non-conference games and hopefully 17 PL games via regular and post-season play. I was looking at schedule from here on out, and it looks like if we made it to the 20th game(PL Championship game), by my best guess, we’d probably have been favorites in something like 17 or 18 of those games. I’m guessing we’ll be ‘dogs at Bucknell, we always suck at HC but not sure if we’ll be dogs there or not, and if we lose one non-conference game and one or two of our early PL games we’ll be ‘dogs again vs Bucknell. Maybe at American if they get hot, or another random road game, but guess the purpose of this is to say, we’ll be favored in the high high majority of the games we play. If we play like we’re supposed to play, we got a legit shot to be favored in 19 of the 20, outside at BU.

With that, answer me the below.

If we get to the 20th game, how do you see our record playing out? If things go as expected, we stay healthy, I would think at a minimum, 15-5 through next 20. If we are who I think we are, I’d want to see us rip off 17 or 18 of the 20.

What is our PL regular season record?
I’m torn between 11-3 and 12-2. I expect us to split with BU, and perhaps drop one or two more, I’ll go aggressive and go 12-2.

What is best case scenario for NCAA tourney seed from PL this year?

RealTimeRPI has PL at 22nd best conference. If we rip 17 or 18 of next 20 in route to NCAA tourney, I’d expect a 14/15 seed. If we rip off 17 or 18, I’d hope we are firmly entrenched into a 15, not 16. A 14 seed, would not be impossible, either. I got a 4 month old waking up so I am rushing to finish this up, but I believe Bucknell sniped a 14 last year, and I think they had 8ish losses for the season, and that is where we’d end up if we rip off 17 or 18….

LUHoop00

Happy Holidays again.

[RichHParticipant]

I was day dreaming about season just yesterday. I expect 12-4 OOC. None of the last 3 are doing well this year. Figure we’ll split with Bucknell. Should not lose any others but another cornell game and we will. go with 12-2. 24-6 going into PL tourney :shock:

[LU65Participant]

While capable of winning-out, I see us slipping-up once at home and twice on the road on our way to a PL Championship. Of course, most Bucknell fans might say the same if asked to project their year. It promises to be a two-horse race with Holy Cross and American throwing scares into each.

Now: 9-4 (8-4 in D-I)
Next Three: 3-0
PL @ Home: 6-1
PL on the Road: 5-2
PL Playoffs: 3-0
Final Record: 26-7 (25-7 in D-I)
NCAA Seed: 15

[StablerBumParticipant]

With that, answer me the below.

If we get to the 20th game, how do you see our record playing out?

What is our PL regular season record?

What is best case scenario for NCAA tourney seed from PL this year?

If LU makes it to the 20th game, I would like to see 16 or 17 wins. I think that is reasonable with the talent and so far displayed mental make up of this team. The last 3 OOC games are all against weak teams and I would be dissapointed not to win all 3. Which brings us to the next question…

PL Regular season? I am going to go with 11-3. Bucknell is good, HC is talented, AU is acheiving far above expectations. League play is always a challenge for a variety of reasons. I think 12-2 would be a HUGE acheivment and that 11-3 is setting expectations quite high. We played very poorly up at Cornell, and dropped some pretty awful league games last year. One or two performances like that can be expected.

As for the PL NCAA seed, if LU wins the leage and has 24 or 25 wins, I would hope for at least a 14. Same with Bucknell. If anyone else takes the league, I think the PL is looking at a 15/16 and even possible play in game. I also hope that whoever does not win the PL tournament of out LU and BU (or both) gets invited to one of the other postseason tournaments and makes some noise by knocking off a name school or 2.

[LUHoops00Participant]

Seems I’m not alone in high expectations, that is a good thing.

Can any resident RPI Doctor’s in the house give me a predicted RPI based on the below expectations. In other words, say we go 14-3 heading into PL Tourney, and then win PL tourney, what do you think our RPI would be heading into NCAA Tourney. It will surely drop due to some of the high 200’s/low 300’s PL members, and fact we’re playing everyone twice, but if we win 17-3 heading into tourney, do we drop to mid 100’s, like say 130-150?

FYI – Dreaming of a 14 vs 3 matchup, depending on who it is, we’d have a legit shot at upset city baby!

LUHoops00 – very happy to have two LU games in next 10ish days!

[StablerBumParticipant]

Over on the Bucknell board, Bison137 has often referenced a site called rpiforecast.com that uses Pomeroy’s probabilities on future results to determine "expected" RPI for the end of the year.

Rpiforecast.com currently has LU projected to finish the regular season at 23-6 or 22-7 (12-2 in the PL) with an RPI of 90. http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/Pat.html

BTW, rpiforecast.com also lists LU’s OOC strength of schedule at a paltry 330 (out of I believe 344). The overall schedule is projected to finish at 304.

[Bison137Participant]

"LUHoops00" wrote:
Can any resident RPI Doctor’s in the house give me a predicted RPI based on the below expectations. In other words, say we go 14-3 heading into PL Tourney, and then win PL tourney, what do you think our RPI would be heading into NCAA Tourney. It will surely drop due to some of the high 200’s/low 300’s PL members, and fact we’re playing everyone twice, but if we win 17-3 heading into tourney, do we drop to mid 100’s, like say 130-150?

StablerBum referenced RPIforecast.com, which is an interesting site. In addition to the predictions he mentions, that site also gives an expected RPI for every possible record for a team – although only prior to the PL tournament. For LU, it looks like this:

Record/Expected RPI/Probability
25-4 64.2 4.47%
24-5 72.9 18.00%
23-6 82.8 27.44%
22-7 93.3 25.34%
21-8 105.3 15.92%
20-9 118.5 6.11%
19-10 133.7 2.18%
18-11 151.4 0.44%
17-12 169.2 0.08%
16-13 205.0 0.01%

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Lehigh.html

Bucknell’s probabilities look like this:

Record/Expected RPI/Probability
24-5 43.6 0.29%
23-6 50.8 2.22%
22-7 61.7 8.74%
21-8 72.8 17.61%
20-9 85.4 23.13%
19-10 98.6 22.11%
18-11 112.7 14.79%
17-12 128.7 7.62%
16-13 146.3 2.62%
15-14 166.4 0.69%
14-15 183.9 0.10%
13-16 205.7 0.07%

Putting all of it together – which is a bit more complicated than just taking the weighted averages of the above – LU has an expected RPI at the moment of 88 and Bucknell has an expected RPI of 89. As mentioned, these RPI’s are before the PL tournament.

BTW, I may have said at one time that it was based on Pomeroy – but actually it is based on Sagarin’s predictor model (which is different from the standard Sagarin rankings but is the most predictive for spreads and probabilities of wins/losses).

[Bison137Participant]

"RichH" wrote: I was day dreaming about season just yesterday. I expect 12-4 OOC. None of the last 3 are doing well this year. Figure we’ll split with Bucknell. Should not lose any others but another cornell game and we will. go with 12-2. 24-6 going into PL tourney :shock:

Pomeroy has LU favored in every game except for the road Bucknell game. However that does not mean he predicts LU to lose only one game – since the overall number of expected wins is derived by adding all of the pct chances of winning each given game. For example if a team is expected to have a 60% chance of winning each of their 20 remaining games then Pomeroy would predict 12 wins (.60 x 20). In LU’s case he predicts a final regular season record of 22-7 vs D1 teams with a PL record of 11-3 (more like 11.3 – 2.7).

Note that for RPI purposes – and also for Pomeroy/Sagarin – the game with Acadia does not count.

[lehigh90Participant]

Some optimism out there.

I would say we win the next 3 OOC, that gets us to 12-4. In conference, we go 10-4, with one home loss, and 3 road losses at Bucknell, at American and at HC. So, that gets us to 22-8 going into conference tourney. Two wins for sure in the PL tournament, so that gets us to 24-8, going into Championship PL game vs. Bucknell. Whoever plays at home wins that.

I don’t think Lehigh gets a 14 seed no matter what. Bucknell can get that as they have proven to be an upset winner in NCAA play. Best case for Lehigh is a 15, and more likely a 16.

[lehigh90Participant]

On the NCAA seeding:

68 teams qualify this year, 4 play-in games, and those involve the 4 lowest seeded automatic qualifiers and the 4 lowest seeded at large.

As I see it, the 4 lowest seeded AQ teams will be:

Southwestern winner
Mid-Eastern winner
America East winner
Northeast winner

So, PL avoids the play-ins. 5th "worst" AQ team will be Southland winner, and I think the PL winner would be the 6th "worst" AQ team in the tournament. So, should be 15 seed.

[Bison137Participant]

"lehigh90" wrote: Some optimism out there.

I would say we win the next 3 OOC, that gets us to 12-4. In conference, we go 10-4, with one home loss, and 3 road losses at Bucknell, at American and at HC. So, that gets us to 22-8 going into conference tourney. Two wins for sure in the PL tournament, so that gets us to 24-8, going into Championship PL game vs. Bucknell. Whoever plays at home wins that.

I don’t think Lehigh gets a 14 seed no matter what. Bucknell can get that as they have proven to be an upset winner in NCAA play. Best case for Lehigh is a 15, and more likely a 16.

In this scenario, LU would definitely not get a 16. Might get one of the best 15’s or very possibly a 14.

[norcalfanParticipant]

"Bison137" wrote: [quote="lehigh90"]Some optimism out there.

I would say we win the next 3 OOC, that gets us to 12-4. In conference, we go 10-4, with one home loss, and 3 road losses at Bucknell, at American and at HC. So, that gets us to 22-8 going into conference tourney. Two wins for sure in the PL tournament, so that gets us to 24-8, going into Championship PL game vs. Bucknell. Whoever plays at home wins that.

I don’t think Lehigh gets a 14 seed no matter what. Bucknell can get that as they have proven to be an upset winner in NCAA play. Best case for Lehigh is a 15, and more likely a 16.[/quote

In this scenario, LU would definitely not get a 16. Might get one of the best 15’s or very possibly a 14.

[/quote]

Barring major injuries, I go with 12-2 in conference. LU and BU cannot overlook anyone.

[LUHoops00Participant]

Just re-read my and other posts in this chain, pretty scary stuff how spot on we were….very good sign that we got our finger on the pulse of this team. We all did very well, but 65, got to give my main man some credit, he eerily nailed this thing thus far. Check out 65 predictions below(I copied/pasted it for you all).

65 Said:
While capable of winning-out, I see us slipping-up once at home and twice on the road on our way to a PL Championship. Of course, most Bucknell fans might say the same if asked to project their year. It promises to be a two-horse race with Holy Cross and American throwing scares into each.

Now: 9-4 (8-4 in D-I)
Next Three: 3-0
PL @ Home: 6-1
PL on the Road: 5-2
PL Playoffs: 3-0
Final Record: 26-7 (25-7 in D-I)
NCAA Seed: 15

I hope he nails everything from here on out minus the seed, I think if we win out and get some upsets in other similarly ranked conferences that we can sneak out a 14 seed.

Good work 65.

[norcalfanParticipant]

Very good predictions 65. What are your thoughts as the team goes forward? I am a little worried that there is not enough consistent support to score at will. CJ is being doubled and tripled team.

[LU65Participant]

Thanks for the kind words, Guys. Let’s hope I’m right the rest of the way.

Perhaps Bison 137 or someone smarter than me could complete the rest of the chart below by adding RPI standings.

Team (D-I Record) / PL Tourney Seeding / Pomeroy / Sagarin / RPI

LU (22-7) / 2 / 81 / 92 /
BU (21-8) / 1 / 107 / 110 /
AU (19-10) / 3 / 168 / 179 /
HC (15-13) / 4 / 214 / 230 /
LC (12-17) / 5 / 231 / 243 /
Army (11-17) / 6 / 294 / 294 /
CU (8-21) / 7 / 319 / 320 /
Navy (2-25) / 323 / 318 /

[Author]

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