Idle Thought: A 7-4 Lehigh Team and Postseason

Forum Forum Lehigh Sports Lehigh Football Idle Thought: A 7-4 Lehigh Team and Postseason

This topic contains 14 replies, has 10 voices, and was last updated by ngineer ngineer 4 years, 11 months ago.

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  • #23395

    lfnadmin
    Keymaster

    Not sure if this will matter. But something to consider:

    Should Lehigh go 7-4 (obviously hardly a given), Lehigh’s losses would have been to:

    7-2 JMU (nationally-ranked, full strength, with Vad Lee)

    8-2 Fordham (nationally-ranked, co-PL champs potentially if Lehigh wins out)

    5-3 Yale

    5-3 Princeton

    Yale and Princeton play year other this weekend, so one team going into the final weekend will have 4 losses. But the final weekend, Yale plays Harvard (toughest team in the IL) and Princeton plays Dartmouth (2nd toughest).

    On a related note, 5-3 Penn plays Harvard this weekend (followed by Cornell).

    The Ivy League race could end up looking like this:

    Penn 7-3 (6-1)
    Harvard 8-2 (5-2)
    Dartmouth 8-2 (5-2)
    Yale/Princeton winner 7-3 (4-3)
    Princeton/Yale loser 6-4 (5-3)

    In this scenario, if you look at this objectively, Lehigh’s “worst loss” would come against a 6-4 team with a recent win against a Top 25 team (Harvard or Dartmouth), and their “best win” would come against the Ivy League champs (who also have a win over Villanova).

    I don’t know if this plays into anything or not with playoff selection, but it might. Almost all of the other 7-4 teams would either have a D-II win to explain away (Western Carolina), or a loss to a god-awful team (ex. Towson vs. Elon). If the record vs. the Ivy League gets its day in court, I think it could be argued that a win over Penn is “quality” and losses to Yale and Princeton are, at bare minimum, not “bad losses”.

    • This topic was modified 4 years, 11 months ago by  lfnadmin.
    #23397

    lfnadmin
    Keymaster

    More food for thought:

    Massey has:

    Harvard at 1
    Dartmouth at 6
    JMU at 7
    Fordham at 19
    Penn at 21
    Princeton at 30
    Yale at 31

    If Yale beats Princeton and Harvard, their rating should shoot up. If Princeton beats Dartmouth, they will be no worse than 30. If Penn goes 2-0, they will conservatively be a Top 15 team.

    If Lehigh goes 7-4 and doesn’t win the autobid, looking a Massey you can actually demonstrate that Lehigh has a “quality win” over a top team and no “bad losses”.

    #23401
    marco
    marco
    Participant

    Sorry, relative to anything but the auto-bid, we’re not a playoff team (yet). Wait a year. Also, I would bet the house on big numbers in 2017.

    #23402
    LUHawker
    LUHawker
    Participant

    I think the chances are low that Lehigh garners an at-large bid, if we end up being co-champs.

    However, I will say that if your scenario plays out and LU finishes 7-4, in addition to the discussion of losses to good teams, one should also be discussing the strength of the how the team finished the season: 5-1 to finish the year. That does look strong when the committee considers momentum.

    #23403
    van
    van
    Participant

    field is 24 this year and there will not be many teams with 7 Div 1 wins in the at large population, so at 7-4 Lehigh would be in the discussion, however, we have been diss’d in the recent past so I would not hold out much hope

    I understand only 10 AQ spots this year since MEAC champ is slated to play in bowl with SWAC champ

    of 14 at large, MVFC, big sky and CAA will likely get 3 each, Southland, SoCon, Big South and OVC should each get 1 leaving 1 to fill out the bracket, at 7-4 Lehigh would have an argument to be that team

    • This reply was modified 4 years, 11 months ago by van van.
    #23407

    TMH
    Participant

    What is somewhat mind boggling is how the tenor of the conversation changes after every game. It doesn’t seem that long ago when people wanted to fire everyone and bench the ones they couldn’t fire. There was a lot of talk about how terrible the recruiting has been and now we’re talking about how bright the future will be. This is far better.
    I just can’t help believe though that if we lose either of the next 2 games, we will be firing everyone all over again. Alas.

    #23414
    sundayamqb
    sundayamqb
    Participant

    TMH:

    A loss to Lafayette (unless there is some exceptional reason) where LU gets out-coached again might be ground for a change of sorts.

    Unimaginable now, but … gotta take it one play at a time … one game at a time

    But why go there?

    #23419

    hawktalker
    Participant

    I know every year is different and so is the field, but three years after a 10-1 Lehigh team didn’t get a bid, why do we think a 7-4 Lehigh team might?
    I hope you’re right, but I would be shocked to be playing on the 28th

    #23425
    ngineer
    ngineer
    Participant

    The year Lehigh was 10-1 and not selected had a smaller field. Now 24 teams make the playoffs, so in comparison with the rest of the FCS field, it could happen with 7-4 record and losses against some very good teams, early in the season. How you finish the season is a criteria for the PL committee to consider if there is a three-way tie.

    #23452

    LehighGuy
    Participant

    Win the PL title, let the chips fall where they may!

    #23479

    lfnadmin
    Keymaster

    [quote=23452]Win the PL title, let the chips fall where they may!

    [/quote]

    I 100% agree with this. I post this not to say “Lehigh will absulutely get an at-large at 7-4”, but more that a 7-4 record isn’t a zero% chance of getting in, either. There are ways that the chips can fall where Lehigh might slide in as the final team. They may, they may not.

    #23482
    van
    van
    Participant

    Hey, if they finish 7-4 they will have met (or exceeded) our pre-season expectations

    having said that, next year expectations will be greater

    #23500

    NJLehighFan
    Participant

    Preseason we were ranked 5th in the Patriot League. I think 7-4 overall and 5-1 in the PL would really be a great turnaround story after a pretty ugly 3-8 2014 campaign. And this team is improving so I expect we will do better next year. Playoff game would be gravy. But let’s win the next 2 first.

    #23502
    van
    van
    Participant

    really want to win the last game, hate the gate but the last game of the year is very special

    #23509
    ngineer
    ngineer
    Participant

    After last year, winning #151 is a MUST. Beating Colgate and losing to those douche bags down the road would be actually nauseating.

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