January 21, 2011 at 11:12 pm #3151
LU (10-9….1-3) vs. LAFAYETTE (7-12…2-2)
Sagarin Rankings and Resulting Lines
Rankings (345 D-I schools)
Lehigh / lafayette
Sagarin: 205 / 278
RPI: 230 / 265
Pomeroy: 220 / 278
Resulting Line and Chance of Winning
Sagarin: LU – 1
Pomeroy: LU wins 76-75 (52% Chance)
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/laf … eNotes.pdf
4 Game PL Stats
Both LU and LC are, for the most part, "middle of the pack" performers when it comes to statistical averages. Yet, there are a few exceptions. See below.
Scoring Offense – LU leads 74.2 to 68.0
Scoring Defense – LC leads 70.5 to 75.0
3FG Made – LC leads 7.5 to 4.5 per game
3FG% – LC leads .353 to .281
3FG% Defense – LC Leads .345 to .359 (neither is particularly good)
Rebounding Margin – LU leads -1.5 to -4.5
Same PL Opponent
Through four games, the only comparable is Colgate. LC beat the Raiders by 11 at home, 75-64. LU dropped its game up in Hamilton by one, 80-79.
Lehigh is 1-3 in conference play with a win over Navy (71-63) and losses to American (82-75), Army (75-72) and Colgate (80-79) by a combined 11 points. Lehigh has had its trouble closing out games, ahead in each of the three contests they lost. In the cases of Army and Colgate, giving up double-digit leads in the second half of play. Even in their 7 point loss to AU, the Mountain Hawks were down by just 3 with 2:25 to play in that game. Overall, the team has battled through 20 ties and 30 lead changes in the their three losses. Scoring the ball as well as we do, I can’t help but think that we’ll be a force to contend with down the stretch once we learn how to get some all-important late-game stops on defense. Of course, that’s just one man’s opinion.
Eight days remain in the first half of PL play to right our 1 and 3 ship and prove that we belong in this race. There’s no better time than tomorrow and a win over archrival Lafayette. But, talk about a 1-2 punch, the Leopards feature 3 double digit scorers in Mintz, Mower, and Wilen and three starters who stand 6’7" and above. Toss in a bit of Lafayette starter experience (2 seniors, 2 juniors, and 1 sophomore), the fact that the Leopards features 4 of the league’s Top 10 3FG% shooters, LU’s troubles on "O" and "D" from behind the line, incentive following last year’s Championship Game loss to Lehigh, and a game that is to be played at Kirby and you have to wonder how Lehigh will survive? It won’t be easy, but if we: (a) define the three (getting to be old hat by now but Lafayette scores 34.2% of it points from three which is 38th highest in the nation), (b) withstand the opening salvo Lafayette is sure to fire, (c) dictate the tempo /capture a few extra possessions, and (d) find/feed the hot hand – if not CJ’s – we’ll have a chance.January 22, 2011 at 1:39 pm #3152January 22, 2011 at 3:30 pm #3153
Certainly challenges with the Defense, that’s easy to see, but I think you’re giving this offense way too much credit. Just because there’s points scored doesn’t mean it’s running at max capacity.
The team could learn a lesson from the Phil Jackson & Michael Jordan story; that’s what it will take for this team to win championships. If they do, they’ll be really tough.
“Good Teams become great ones when the members trust each other enough to surrender the ‘me’ for ‘we’”. Phil Jackson NBA CoachJanuary 22, 2011 at 9:03 pm #3155
"O" performed well again today with 79 points and hit 42% from the field (and from three) in a 17 point win over Lafayette. Loved seeing CJ regain his touch from three going 4 of 9 in what has become a typical 23 point performance. I also sensed a greater sharing of the ball today (a solid point raised by True Colors if this team excepts to be great) as all five starters hit for double-figures and even looked for second line players to contribute (ex: McCarthy netted 7 and was actually the go-to guy on a series of four possessions). Anxious to see the Assist totals. They should show improvement, as well. On the other side of the ball, the "D" was there right from the start, limiting LC to 22 points on 29% shooting in the first half while holding Mower to 3 points on 1 of 6 shooting for the game – thanks in part to CJ’s improving D. Lafayette was hounded on the perimeter, converting on just 6 of 24 attempts from long range, and never able to really climb back in the game.
Solid Leihgh win – most complete game of the year.
Up next: #1 Bucknell at Stabler on Wednesday.
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.