Lehigh is #7 in both polls

[TMHParticipant]

In addition Poillon leads the nation in fewest goals allowed/game and is 2nd in save %. We now own the longest winning streak in the nation and have passed North Carolina, Syracuse and Maryland. That’s impressive!!
Remember, the game against Navy on Friday night at 7:00 is being televised on CBS College Sports. Navy just beat #12/13 Colgate.

[ngineerParticipant]

Wow. Great news. Annapolis a tough place to play. A win there will really make everyone sit up, if they haven’t already.

[RichHParticipant]

Navy not too good this year but it will still be a very tough game down there. Expect a very low scoring D battle. Gate and Bucknell both also ranked in top 20

[Bison137Participant]

The round robin between BU, CU, and LU the final three weeks of the regular season will be interesting. In the latest poll, LU as you say is #7, with BU at #16 and CU at #17. In the laxpower computer model, BU is #9, CU #11, and LU #15. Only 1 goal separates the three teams in that model.

[RichHParticipant]

Dagnabit. Just finished reading the laxpower to put up. Should be very interesting series.Doubt anyone will sweep. Thinking ahead isit possible fo PL to get 2 into playoffs?

[Bison137Participant]

It’s possible to get two in, but not a sure thing by any means. Bucknell would definitely have to run the table until the PL finals to have a shot. LU and CU might be able to take one more regular season loss if they also advance to the PL final. However both have iffy SOS’s, which will hurt.

The other issue is the numbers game. Looking at current results, 13 of the 16 bids may be spoken for: 4 ACC, JHU, Notre Dame, 6 AQ’s, and either Cornell or Princeton (whichever doesn’t win the Ivy). Also Villanova at the moment is ahead of all PL schools, and Denver probably is as well. And Syracuse – who is on the wrong side of the bubble at the moment – will have a lot of opportunities to play their way in. Assuming there are no upsets in conference tournaments, that might leave Villanova, Syracuse, Denver, possibly Fairfield, 2nd place PL team, and perhaps some others fighting for three spots. If certain upsets occur in the tournaments, then the PL chances would diminish. Also if Villanova and Syracuse finish strong, that would also make it very difficult.

What the PL teams would like to see:

– UMass wins the CAA tournament – knocking out Towson, Hofstra, PSU, Drexel, etc.
– Loyola wins the ECAC – knocking out Fairfield (hopefully), Ohio State, Denver, etc.
– Villanova gets upset by one or two Big East teams and then loses to ND.
– Denver loses to Loyola and Duke, and also gets upset by another league team. Also loses in in the ECAC tournament (which happens to be played in Denver). A total collapse by Loyola would also accomplish the same end, but is less likely.
– Syracuse loses maybe three more games from among Princeton, Cornell, Duke, Notre Dame, and Georgetown.

[RichHParticipant]

Amighty long list of conditions. So itis a remote possibility.

[vanParticipant]

May be a long list, but Laxpower projects LU-Gate-Bison in the top 14. That could change after LU-Gate-Bison round robin. American East and MAAC have none in top 16, so they bump two playoff spots. Not sure I agree Nova and Denver ahead of PL schools. Nova with 2 early wins over us and Bison, but 2-3 in last 5 games, with both wins by one goal. Denver best win of PSU with OT loses to Cornell and ND (only beat one team [bob morris] with a winning record). Seems to me that chance of 2 PL teams in playoffs is pretty decent, with one getting a seed (think LU). Should know better in 2 weeks.

[Bison137Participant]

1. Right now I think Denver and Nova are likely ahead of any PL school – especially Nova. In lax, the NCAA has leaned heavily on the RPI over the years. Also laxpower’s tournament selection index (TSI) has been reasonably accurate. Here is how the five schools stand in those metrics:

RPI, TSI:

Denver 18, 11
Nova 10, 8
BU 20, 15
CU 14, 24
LU 13, 17

As far as SOS goes, Villanova is #3, Denver #25, BU #26, LU #44, and CU #49.

2. Yes, Nova is 2-3 in its last five games, but two of the losses are to highly-ranked teams (Maryland and Princeton) and they also have a win over Syracuse. Their SOS and RPI are so far ahead of the PL schools, I think they definitely would beat them out for an at-large at the moment. Denver is more problematic but if they do well in the remaining games, they will certainly have an edge with the committee due to last year’s Final Four berth plus Tierney as coach. In any case, there is a lot of lax left to be played.

3. For LU or CU to get a seed, they will almost certainly have to run the table. (Bucknell has virtually no chance.) Even one loss and likely no seed. Bucknell last year may have had a better resume than LU will have this year – and they still did not get a seed.

Just looking at things right now, the 8 seeds would likely be JHU, UMass, VA, Loyola, Cornell or Princeton, Notre Dame, Duke, and Maryland. Would need at least one of those teams to fade down the stretch – and would also need UNC and Nova to not do well.

• This reply was modified 12 years ago by  Bison137.

[vanParticipant]

Well, call me Mr. optimist, but check back in 2 weeks.

[RichHParticipant]

Gee, the excitement mounts, even for a casual fan like me.

[RichHParticipant]

Just saw Navy now at #19 in Inside Lacrossepoll. 4 PL teams top 20. Going to be a very interesting couple of weeks in the PL

[TMHParticipant]

I need to get myself into the mindset of the much smaller world of college lacrosse. Lehigh will play a 14 game regular season this year. Of those 14 games, 8 (Villanova, Penn, North Carolina,Yale,Penn St., Navy, Colgate and Bucknell-Army was just outside)will likely be against teams ranked in the Top 20 when they played them. Still, they may be penalized for a relatively weak SOS in part I suppose because their opponents rankings would naturally go down when Lehigh beat them.
It’s all moot though until the regular season is over.

[RichHParticipant]

I, also have had some trouble understanding Power ratings.!37 did explain how they work. He notesd that Gate and BU had played tougher schedules so higher RPI. Comparatively our SOS is weaker than many . Guess this is a product of rather smaller field of teams than in football or basketball.

[Bison137Participant]

Other than SOS, the other thing working against LU to some extent is that the laxpower model – like Sagarin, Pomeroy, etc – incorporates score differential. A 10-goal home loss to Villanova and a 1-goal home win over Army haven’t helped. Normally a 1-goal win over UNC would be a big deal in the rankings, but UNC has struggled this year and is only ranked #14 themselves, so LU did not get a huge boost from that win. In fact, due to the margin of victories, the wins over Penn, PSU, and Yale actually were actually more helpful – since those teams at the moment are only 1-3 goals worse than UNC and LU beat all of them by a good margin.

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