I watched the Lehigh-Duke game enough times now that I fully realize that games are not played on paper..but…if I had to analyze the next two games on paper, I like Lehigh’s chances.
Colgate…I’m not sure Colgate is playing their best lacrosse right now, losing to Navy last week and escaping a dogfight against Army (as did Lehigh)yesterday .Looking at their schedule, I’m finding it difficult to believe that their SOS is higher than Lehigh with their only significant win being against #15 Fairfield.
For the most part, they simply outscore their opponents avg 13.6 g/g and allowing 9.3. Peter Baum is a scoring machine with 55 pts in 10 games. The problem for them is I don’t believe they have faced a defense anywhere near Lehigh’s. If I remove one early abberation against Villanova early in the year, opponents have only averaged 4.3 g/g and that is against some formidable opponents. Allowing nearly 10 g/g may not be good enough for the Gate. BTW both of their losses have been at home.
Bucknell
This team is very similar to Colgate. Lost some close games to quality opponents but biggest win may have been Penn State last week. They are another scoring machine avg 12.64 g/g but also allowing 9.36. They too have a star in Billy Eisenreich although he is probably a better passer. Lehigh has done well this year shutting down prolific scorer. Like Colgate, I’m not sure that they have faced such a tough defense and allowing over 9 g/g may not be enough in this one. A trobuling stat for the Bison is only winning .446% of the faceoffs which may be crucial in a game of this magnitude. This game will be played at home.
