Lehigh PL Tournament 2015

[lfnadminKeymaster]

1st round vs. American. Some things to think about:

* Lehigh is 6-3 at Stabler vs. the PL, with the first two losses happening in early January, and the 3rd vs. Lafayette. Stabler could actually, strange as it may seem, be a real plus for the Mountain Hawks.

* That means upsets might really help Lehigh’s chances to make the semis and final. Especially a Colgate early elimination to a team like Navy or Army.

* So much of this boils down to matchups. Some have hoped that HC could upset Bucknell but I’m not so sure I like that too much. I feel HC matches up very well with Lehigh. Similarly, I wouldn’t like a return trip to Hamilton too much (for different matchup reasons).

Bottom line is, though, this is going to be one great PL tournament with a lot of scoreboard-watching. This will be fun!

[Engineer86Participant]

I would not mind having to play Bucknell. We just have to stay consistent in playing them. Colgate would have to beat us fora third time which is very tough. They would also have to shoot well for a third time.

I agree that HCand Lafayette are two match ups I do not like, but I have not seen American.

[toddcuddParticipant]

Agreed that the tourney should be lots of fun, with tons of potential for surprises. As long as my nerves can take it!
I’m actually looking forward to watching Tuesday’s games, with no skin in the game! Like a short breather before the madness.

[RichHParticipant]

W used to think I was crazy during football season. Now she cant wait for it. I am anticipating playoffs and simultaneously dreading them.

[pafan11Participant]

Don’t like first or possible second round matchup.
American is defending champs with a senior laden team that has the potential to shoot the lights out. First Tournament that LU has expectations with this group, how will they respond?

Colgate at home. Agree tough to beat a team 3 times in a season but tough trip with classes ending, spring break looming and lots of pressure.

If this team makes the final they win no matter if its HC, Bucknell, or Laf. Just not sure they can make it to final.

[LU65Participant]

And, here we go!

Final Rankings as we enter PL Tournament Play

School / RPI / KenPom

Bucknell / 132 / 191
LC / 146 / 214
LU / 152 / 192
AU / 160 / 216
BU / 188 / 230
CU / 178 / 159
HC / 208 / 246
Army / 233 / 216
Loyola / 254 / 306
Navy / 265 / 268

How KenPom see it for Tuesday

Army
@
Navy
Navy wins 70-66 (65% chance)

Loyola
@
Holy Cross
Holy Cross wins 65-58 (77% chance)

Who’s Hot and Who’s Not (February Records)

6-2 Bucknell …with L’s to: Lafayette and Lehigh
6-2 Boston U. …with L’s to: Colgate and Bucknell
5-3 Colgate …with L’s to: Holy Cross, Navy and Loyola
5-3 Lehigh…with L’s to: Holy Cross, Lafayette and Colgate
4-4 Lafayette…with L’s to: BU, Loyola, American and Colgate
4-4 Navy…with L’s to: BU, Bucknell, Lehigh and American
4-4 Holy Cross…with L’s to: Bucknell, Lafayette, Navy and BU
3-5 American…with L’s to: Colgate, Lehigh, BU, Army and Bucknell
2-6 Loyola…with L’s to: American, Lehigh, BU, Bucknell, Holy Cross and Navy
1-7 Army…with L’s to: Lehigh, Navy, Holy Cross, Bucknell, CU, BU and LC

Should we get by American in the quarter-finals on Thursday night, our next opponent in the semis to be held on Sunday would either be:

Colgate (with a win over either Army or Navy on Thursday) @ Colgate
or
Army (should they beat Navy on Tuesday and Colgate on Thursday) @ Lehigh
or
Navy (should they beat Army on Tuesday and Colgate on Thursday) @ Lehigh

How about a Lehigh Valley final between Lehigh and Lafayette on Sunday, March 11th ? And, at Stabelr Arena, no less! Dream on, you say. Well, our friends over in Easton are probably thinking they could hold up their end of the bargain with back-to-back wins over teams they have already beaten once this year. And, that includes Bucknell. It’s now up to us.

[lfnadminKeymaster]

You know what’s a potentially scary matchup? Navy, if everyone is healthy.

[toddcuddParticipant]

Honestly, with the way the PL has gone this year, I don’t think anybody can feel “safe” in any game. But if I had to pick, I think I’d choose Navy from among the possibilities. While we also beat Army twice, I just can’t feel comfortable with that one. It still hard for me to fathom that they finished last in the PL. They were supposed to contend!

[LU65Participant]

Tonight’s Picks – just a hunch

Holy Cross over Loyola by 7

Winners of 4 of their last 6 going up against a team that has lost 4 of their last 6, makes this a relatively easy pick. The Crusaders have come up winners in their last two outings at the Hart Center – one just happened to come over Loyola -team they’ll meet tonight. I’m “all-in” on the Crusaders. Their star 6’7” senior forward, #13, Malcolm Miller should, as he has in the past, prove to be too much for Loyola to handle. In his previous two starts against the Greyhounds, MM has gone a combined 10 for 17, scored 40 and snagged 12 boards. I also can’t pass up the stat that the Crusders are 18-4 all-time in PL tournament games played at the Hart Center.

SERIES QUICK FACTS

Overall: Holy Cross leads, 5-3
Patriot League Tournament: First Meeting
In Worcester: Holy Cross leads, 4-0
At the Hart Center: Holy Cross leads, 4-0
Milan Brown vs. Loyola: 8-3
G.G. Smith vs. Holy Cross: 1-3
Current Win Streak: Holy Cross, one game

Army gets Revenge Tonight in a Close One

Despite losing first by 9 and then later in the year by 8 to Navy, I’m thinking the Black Knights turn the tables on the Midshipmen tonight in Annapolis. I’ll banking on the old adage that says “it’s hard to beat someone three times in one season” and, after all, isn’t this Navy’s time to drop a game. You see, since February 4th, the Middies have gone: L-W-L-W-L-W- L –W. Is it not, therefore, time for a “L?” Army won’t go down with a fight tonight and may just come out on top.

Game Notes from Army
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/army/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2014-15/release/release_20150302aaa.pdf

Like I say………..just hunches and a bit of a wish or two thrown in. What is everyone thinking?

[toddcuddParticipant]

I’m with ya on Holy Cross. God knows how hard it is to win there. But I wouldn’t wanna put any money on Army-Navy. Unless one of ’em was getting a bunch of points! If my feet were held to the fire, I guess I’d have to pick Navy – just going with the home court.

[lfnadminKeymaster]

Chalk tonight, but especially chalk in the Hart Center. Lehigh women’s team next up in the Hart Center, incidentally, in a really tough matchup for them tomorrow.

[toddcuddParticipant]

Well, one decision got easy. Was probably gonna watch Army-Navy primarily anyway – but the coverage on PLN has Holy Cross’ Frank Carvel-soundalike on the call on the other game. I can’t listen to him…

[toddcuddParticipant]

And chalk it is, in round 1! Now we take care of our business – and Go Navy!!

[TMHParticipant]

Looks like toddcudd is the winner. Both home teams, Navy and Holy Cross held serve. Now we hope that we do the same on Thursday and one of those teams can pull an upset.

[LU65Participant]

Well, Todd called it: Navy over Army. He wasn’t the only one to go with the favorite. KenPom had it Navy by 4 and it was Navy by 4. But, as expected, the Cadets didn’t go down without a fight. They lead at the half and had it tied with a minute to go. Good effort, as one might expect, from the guys in uniform.

Here’s how KenPom sees it going down tomorrow night:
Colgate by 8 over Navy
Lafayette by 5 over Boston U.
Bucknell by 6 over Holy Cross
And
Lehigh by 4 over American

Upsets are certainly not out of the question. After all, not one of the favorites owns a swept over their opponent in regular season play this year. Read how each upset happened:

Navy over Colgate
http://www.navysports.com/sports/m-baskbl/recaps/021415aaa.html

Boston U. over Lafayette
http://www.goterriers.com/sports/m-baskbl/recaps/020915aaa.html

Holy Cross over Bucknell
http://www.goholycross.com/sports/m-baskbl/2014-15/releases/20150110kjz64nHoly Cross over

American U. over Lehigh
http://www.lehighsports.com/news/2015/1/14/MBB_0114151212.aspx?path=mbball

I’m not saying it will happen again but wouldn’t it be nice if it did? That is, of course, in all cases but one.

I’m headed out to Stabler – snow permitting – on Thursday. Hope to you there. TMH, I’ll be about 7 rows behind the LU bench.

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