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This topic contains 49 replies, has 10 voices, and was last updated by RichH RichH 6 years, 2 months ago.

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  • #14792
    RichH
    RichH
    Participant

    “Time will tell”. For me the most frustrating sentence to read,this time of the summer.:) But so true.

    #14793
    sundayamqb
    sundayamqb
    Participant

    Some great analysis, folks!

    We need to get http://fivethirtyeight.com/ to weigh in … LOL

    Go Lehigh TU Owl has provided some great percentages. Question for your stats guys out there: If we all made similar predictions, could we put them together and come up with a consolidated win-loss prediction?

    #14794

    TMH
    Participant

    Just a thought. Can some of the “newness” of this year’s Lehigh team be used to an advantage. There will be no or very little tape to watch on some of our key players and coordinators. There will be no tendencies to evaluate.
    It always concerned me when we played a team with a new HC or even Princeton when they had a week of film or scouting on us and we had nothing on them. Just a thought.

    #14795

    TheCobbler
    Participant

    I feel too many unknowns to predict anything more than 4-5 wins. Expectations of 7-8 wins are not realistic in my opinion.

    We have no idea how D will be. Yes a lot of LB and DL are back but they are back from one of the worst D’s in school history. Gave up 48+ points in 3 league games! Secondary will be basically all new. Can’t be worse than last year, right? (Famous last words).

    Another big ? for me is who is playing QB? Neither guy showed they could win more than 4-5 games based on last season’s performance. Yes, they should get better but how much better when they didn’t practice at all in spring (McHale) or limited reps in spring (Shaf).

    Also have to replace 1st team PL Punter and 3 year long snapper.

    Not to mention all the new coaches.

    LU is due for a bad year. It’s so hard to stay on top for an extended period of time. Every program has down years. Seems like this is setting up that way. Let’s not forget, we gave up 98 points to Bucknell and Lafayette who were 6 win teams. I mentioned before, LU probably closer to a 6 win team itself last year. 4-5 wins this year won’t be as big a drop off to me.

    #14796
    RichH
    RichH
    Participant

    Not sure TMH about newness helping much. Andy sticking to same O scheme. Tendencies a bit different, I guess, with Folmar. His history shows a pass first mentality much the same as Cheech.Who steps up at QB will mean more . Matt is a runner who throws,Nick is a passer who can run. Coordinating O,crucial. Other than OL and TE lots if new everywhere.
    D will be better. Good enough ? DL is the linch pin. Last yr L could not stop run or keep OL off our LBs. Solving that will stabilize D.2ndary all new but not inexperienced. If front 7 can handle run better .they s/b OK.Last yr our Ss had to react forward to help run. Fordham game Ss gave up huge plays by getting caught coming down on run fakes leaving open long pass.
    :) So our speculations are all possible. Is this the end of an up cycle? Possible,we’ve seen them before over the last decades.IMO last year was the rebuilding year for this group.BB coming in had little experience and was vastly different than prior QBs.
    QB and DL and new OC and DC. How these develop and hiw quickly should set our season. 4-7 to 9-2??

    #14799
    RichH
    RichH
    Participant

    FWIW preseason Massey predictions.

    JMU L 27-31
    UNH L 21-39
    Yale L 27-28
    MU W 31-26
    BU W 28=24
    Cor W 35-30
    FU L 31-35
    GU W 35-21
    HC W 31-28
    Gate W 34-27
    LC L 28-31

    #14808

    Miller
    Participant

    Cobb is a special teams idiot if he is worried about the punter or LS.(Laub was great last year) Why so negative sir? We have SO much more returning at every level than last year. Last year we had no QB either, but worked out just fine. We had less starters returning and went 8-3. If you do not know the teams past nor the players involved then…….SHUT UP and enjoy the ride.

    #14814

    TheCobbler
    Participant

    Miller, you sound really foolish.

    Matt Laub did not long snap in a single game last season. Kyle Lechner snapped in all 11 games. Get your facts straight if you are going to come at me. He’s also coming off shoulder surgery so who knows if he’s even able to LS. Maybe it’s you who doesn’t know the teams past and players involved?

    I’m not being negative, just giving my opinion backed up by my reasons. 4-5 wins is realistic for this team. 7-8 wins is not. What reasons other than, we’re always good, do you have to believe this is more than a 4-5 win team? What all league players does this team have coming back?

    Instead of coming at me and making false statements, why don’t you provide some insight.

    #14817
    Go Lehigh TU Owl
    Go Lehigh TU Owl
    Participant

    One of the reasons I believe this team can be better than 4-5 wins is the amount change that occurred throughout the league. Also, look at Lehigh’s OOC schedule. Cornell lost Matthews, JMU new coach, Monmouth new league etc…

    I wonder how much you know about LU’s opponents….

    #14829

    TheCobbler
    Participant

    So just want to make sure I’m understanding you correctly…all the changes for teams around the PL is a negative for those teams but all the changes for LU are a positive for us?

    JMU has a new coach but they will also play a game before playing LU. Up for debate if that’s an advantage or not. Results against Princeton the last 4 years would suggest advantage goes to the team that has played vs the team that hasn’t.

    Not sure how Monmouth going to a new league is a change that gives LU an advantage against them. Can you elaborate? Monmouth will be much better this season. QB, WR, RB and good DL returning. Also have best LB returning after year suspension. But then again I don’t know much about our opponents so take that for what it’s worth…

    Cornell losing QB is a definite + for LU. Cornell will still be better than Columbia was last year. Looking at stats, Columbia had the worst, dead last, rock bottom, Offense in all of FCS.

    IMO, the focus needs to be on LU. The consensus on here seems to be this team starts out 0-2. I would argue 0-3. Yale will be top 1/2 of IVY this year.

    Starting out 0-2 means this team can only lose 2 more games the rest of the season to win 7 games. That includes Fordham, Bucknell & Lafayette who all smoked LU last year. Yale & Monmouth also very tough games.

    Team was not good last year. When is the last time LU lost 3 league games? Even in last 4-7 season was 4-2 in Pat League! Somehow found a way to win 8 games.

    I look at a team like Fordham. I think they are going to be very good. Why…because they have QB, WR, TE, OL, DL, LB who have all proven they are good players and can win a lot of games. I don’t see anything like that from LU. Other than Campbell, Newton and Daryoush, I don’t see anyone on LU that has proven they are good players. Will other guys be good players, absolutely. Will enough guys step up to win 7 or 8 games? That’s A LOT of guys who need to step up and I don’t see it happening.

    At least last season Sherman had played a lot and made a bunch of big plays as a Soph and Jr. Same with Kurfis, Muhammad, Jarvis. No playmakers coming back this year that have made plays in previous years.

    I know I’m being viewed as negative, but I’m just trying to give what I feel is a realistic view of this team. The ones who predict 8 wins with no reasons why other than, we’re Lehigh we just reload, they will be the negative ones on here when the team only wins 5 games.

    #14830
    RichH
    RichH
    Participant

    Opinios,we all got’em. Cobbler yours just as valid as anyone else’s, Dont agree with it :).
    For the first time in a while,we come into a year with many more issues than answers.Clear we have a half a glass now. Half full or half empty seems to be creating different expectations.
    A bit restrictive in your picks of proven player. Coyle,Parris,Caslow,Laub,Owens all fit there. Probably a few more.
    JMU and UNH will be probable losses. JMU a game in hand big advantage. We have a shot ,if team set. I would be pleasantly surprised if we are tho.
    UNH,dont think they’ll be looking past us :)
    The rest of the sched are all games that can be won.
    All of this depends on how we progress in camp. Coordination,injuries ,reps. With so much change ,I dont know what to expect. Winning season and beat LC,pretty good. Hope we do better,think we can ,just dont know.

    #14832

    TheCobbler
    Participant

    Caslow, Laub, Campbell, Newton, Muhammad, Jarvis, and “probably a few more”…that’s a lot of playmakers for one of the worst D’s in school history.

    Parris has potential to have a big year but he doesn’t have the speed and playmaking ability Kurfis or Spadola had (or the QB throwing to him). He also drops passes at key times (see Lafayette game). Coyle has caught some TD and is a solid player. Knott is a guy to watch IMO. Has playmaking potential.

    OL should be a strength of the team. Losing Douglas will hurt but should have good depth.

    #14833
    RichH
    RichH
    Participant

    Playmakers,well add Ripanti and Leaks. Agree on OL. Douglas a tough liss but Rugg,if he can stay healthy , a plus. Parris has same speed needs to improve concentration. Knott ,frustrating a game breaker but cant stay on field. Expext Kelsey will impress. QB and DL my mantra for this year.

    #14834

    TMH
    Participant

    I remain cautiously optimistic. Two years ago, I attended the Brown/White game and concluded that QB may be a big problem. Colvin had a fine year and we go to the playoffs. Last year, QB was a big question mark but BB looked a whole lot like Lum from the left side and we would likely have won the Patriot League had he stayed healthy. We probably have more GT experience at QB this year. Kurfis was good as a junior but no one expected a Spadola type season. Parris had a really nice junior year and who knows what he will produce now that he will be the go to guy.
    The defense was really young last year and IMHO was poorly schemed. I suspect we may see a big improvement with JB at the helm this year and a year under their belt.
    This is why we play the games.

    #14836
    RichH
    RichH
    Participant

    Cautious optimism, great catch phrase for this team this year. Nice call TMH

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