April 22, 2013 at 3:04 pm #10186
It looks like Lehigh will need to win the Patriot League Tournament to get in but then again stranger things have happened.April 22, 2013 at 4:06 pm #10187
Yes, it’s likely they’ll have to win it. The lax tournament committee has always leaned heavily on RPI – and the LU RPI rank is #17. Likely slightly worse if they lose in PL tournament. Probably would need to be #13 or better to have a shot.
To have an at-large shot, LU would need a few of these things to happen:
1. Johns Hopkins loses to Loyola (or Army)
2. Princeton loses to Cornell in final regular season game – and does not win the Ivy tournament.
3. Cornell wins Ivy tournament.
4. Albany wins America East tournament.
5. PSU wins CAA tournament.
6. Ohio State loses to Fairfield and/or in first round of ECAC tournament.
7. Syracuse loses to Notre Dame and then loses in first round of Big East tournament. (And Notre Dame wins Big East tournament.)April 22, 2013 at 5:58 pm #10188
Do you think the situation is almost exactly the same for Bucknell or do they have an advantage? I notice that they trail Lehigh in one poll and are ahead in the other, both by slight margins.April 22, 2013 at 8:34 pm #10190
Bucknell definitely has an advantage at the moment. It ranks #8 in RPI, compared to LU’s #18. BU also has a much better SOS and a better record. Additionally, BU has three wins against top 15 programs compared to LU’s two (Bucknell and PSU). Remember that the committee typically has place a lot of weight on RPI and SOS.
If Bucknell were to beat Army in the semis and then lose to LU, it looks like there is a good probability that they would get an at-large IF there aren’t upsets in the strong conferences, where a weak team grabs the AQ. With a win over Army and a loss to LU, Bucknell’s final RPI would be 8 or 9. For LU to get in if it loses in the finals, a lot of things would have to happen to allow them to pass at least four teams out of Ohio State, Penn, Johns Hopkins, Yale, and Princeton. I think whichever Ivy gets to their tournament final (presumably to play Cornell) will get a bid – which likely means LU would have to pass the other four.April 23, 2013 at 1:52 pm #10195
Thanks TMH, real life took over for the last 5-6 days.
Agree, we must win . At large would be very tough.Too many dominoes have to fall for us to get in. PL s/b a dogfight.April 23, 2013 at 7:23 pm #10199
Have to agree with 137, the loss to UMass really hurt our tournament chances without the AQ. However, I like our chances to win the PL tourney in front of home fans.
Football team found out the same thing with the Colgate loss this year.April 23, 2013 at 7:44 pm #10200
In the RPI scheme of things, the loss to Air Force was even worse. UMass, despite not having a great record, ranks #19 in RPI at the moment, so it wouldn’t be considered a “bad” loss by the tournament committee.April 23, 2013 at 11:20 pm #10201
Yep, but it would have been a good win!
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