Lehigh Starting 5 '13-'14 season

[lehigh90Participant]

Rather than continue this on another thread, I think it deserves its own thread.  Plus, we have a long offseason to discuss it.

So, I am going to throw mine out there.  I will preface this by saying this is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen.

PG – Mackey McKnight (really the only given on this list, should be first team All-PL PG, and could be in mix for POY.  Would like to see consistent touch from perimeter.)

SG – Corey Schaefer (probably not his natural postion, but I think he starts season as the choice at 2, based on experience, handle, and touch from 3.  I think you see him handle the ball as the primary PG a bunch as well, with MM moving over the wing.  Great floor general, glue guy.  Needs to learn to finish at the rim, and develop a pull up short range game.)

SF – Anthony D’Orazio (I think he is one of the wing starters by default.  If he started last year on a deep and talented team, you need to pencil him in here.  Only caveat to him is a new coach could knock him down in the pecking order.  Starts season as strongest known defender.  Needs to develop consistency in his 3 point shooting.)

Now, this is where it gets really tough.  I think you have 3 players in the mix for the two big spots, Tim Kempton, Justin Goldsborough and Conroy Baltimore.

PF – Justin Goldsborough (I give him a slight knod over CB for the 4 spot, as he is more athletic, and makes a little more happen out there.  Needs to be a solid banger, rebounder and shot blocker.  Any offense is gravy, putbacks off offensive board, hustle plays at rim.  Needs to develop overall offensive game, mid-range jumper, and low post moves.  May be questionable if you can play him with TK a lot of minutes, can he guard smaller, quicker 4’s?  Will also get significant minutes at the 5.)

C – Tim Kempton (I think he shows up on campus with a solid mid-range, high post game, and will need to develop his strength to play at the low block.  But, his size and ability give him the first chance at center).

Then, I look at guys who will struggle to get early minutes, and I put the following in that category, TS and CR (walk-ons), DC (off injury), MS (likely 3rd choice PG, early on, maybe your change of pace guy).

Then, that leaves me with this rotation on the bench:

AP – wing shooter, hopefully capable perimeter defender. 

JC – unknown athletic big body, could see minutes at all 3 front court positions, big upside we hope

SW – I think he projects to your starting 3 man, but a question of when.  should be a do it all type down the road.

SC – 3 point specialist.  Could have a much bigger role as he may be the best pure scorer in the group.  Needs to develop on the defensive end and his game off the bounce.  

CB – can he provide a solid option at the 4 this season?  Can he manage foul trouble and be active on the glass.  He is going to need to go head to head with JG for minutes.

So, that is how I see it, under Brett Reed, to start the season.  There is always the chance that the coach, whoever it is, sees a real influx of young talent, and says we are going to really tear this down and rebuild.  Sort of like Army, later on this season, where they started 4-5 freshmen.  I could definitely see that possibility, where you have a MM starting, and throwing a group of talented but unproven guys around him.  Say a starting 5 of (MM, TK, SW, JC, AP).  But, unlikely.  I don’t think the cupboard is that bare and you still have serviceable talent returning.

 

[RichHParticipant]

Agree on Kempton, think Jesse will rotate with him. AP will get significant PT, if he is as good an onball defender as reputed. SW and DC both coming off serious injuries, we’ll see. I may be only one who likes CB. He is tough inside. A bit like Maneri, who didn’t learn how to avoid FT until late jr yr.
One benfit of losing CJ so early was team had most of the season to adjust. Wont be a shock next yr. GK had a pretty forgettable season. His experience will be missed. If Doc can blend experience with 5 new players we s/b very good.
While both PGs will be on the ct together a lot , think AD will start at 2 and SC at 3.

[StablerBumParticipant]

I’ll throw my hat in this ring.

PG – Mackey (as has been said, this one is locked in, although I bet Reed really hopes he stops needing to sit Mackey a couple times a season for showing up late to team functions)

SG – Corey Schaefer (I could see AP here as well, but I think Reed will go with Corey’s stability and scoring here. It helps that with Miles Simelton coming in, we have three point guards so it is easier to shift one of them to the 2)

SF – Anthony D’Orazio (returning starter and likely captain with MM, he will pretty much be asked to do what he did this year, with a little more scoring punch hopefully)

PF – Jesse Chuku (we haven’t seen him play, but the staff has been watching and working with him the past year and I think that gives him a step up on the freshman. And we have all seen the video that shows his athleticism)

C- Justin Goldsborough (by default this spot is JG’s but I think Kempton will get a lot of minutes as well)

From the bench guys I expect AP to get quite a few minutes. By all accounts he has a great bball IQ, is a good defender, and can hit shots. All things this team needs. Freshman aren’t typically great defenders and smart players but I think AP bucks the trend. SC needs to take a big step to be more than a 10-15 mpg guy off the bench. CB will get about the same 10-15 mpg. Simelton will need to really impress to see the court. But I could see him get some time at the 2 and being asked to score. SW is a wildcard but could bring a lot if he is healthy. DC is in a tough spot. Coming off injury and a new crop of guards in front of him. TK will get a long look as he will likely be the biggest guy on the team and more skilled than JG (I hope).

[TMHParticipant]

Lehigh90

Although I think you may be correct, I’m not sure it is the way I would go. # things I have learned though is:

1.)Coach likes going small or at least certainly is not afraid to

2.) I’m not sure Coach likes to throw freshmen into the fire unless they have exceptional talent

3.)Our front court will be very inexperienced.

4.)Minutes are given out based on defense.

With that being said, I think we will be at a major disadvantage defensively/rebounding with your lineup. MM is a generous 6-0, CS is a generous 6-1 and AD is a generous 6-2. They will be supported by a very inexperienced TK and a fairly inexperienced JG.  IMHO, that is a bit scary.

Offensively, I’m not sure what we have either other than MM. TK is still an unknown with IMO a huge upside. JG hasn’t shown me anything offensively yet other than a dunk. Statistically he and CB are clones. JG is getting more minutes based on a better handle on defense. Although CS and AD seem to be very capable on offense, I still still think the former is more comfortable in the PG role where he can distribute and score when open. AD spent much of this past season as the 4th or 5th scoring option. Only time will tell whether he can effectively step that up.

Hence the conundrum. If I were looking for more defense, I’m going bigger, moving AD to the #2 and perhaps SW to the #3. I really want CS to get his share of minutes though (20-25) although I prefer it to be spelling MM and AD with some more time going small. If I’m going for more offense, perhaps SC as the #3 and AD at the #2. He is 6-5 and may be better equipped to defend the #3.

Off the bench, I have no idea how ready DC will be nor what he brings to the table yet. AP, IMO, is a smaller clone of SC and I see him spending his freshman year growing both physically and mentally for the college game. I believe CR may have huge upside potential but I think he too will need a year to be coached up to the college game. I believe that multi-sport athletes have a larger growth curve in college than 1 sport athletes. Time will tell. MS will be in a short term logjam with MM and CS. He too will grow into the college game next year but should move up to #2 in his soph year and start his junior year if he puts in the time and energy.

In the front court we may see a merry-go-round between TK, JC, JG, CB and SW until Coach can figure out which guys will play defense and which combination works best. Much will depend on who focuses best to the task on hand and is willing to put in the work during the off-season. I think, in their own way, they are all talented but raw.IMHO, we will take a small step nack next season, but I think the future still looks very bright.

 

[StablerBumParticipant]

AP, IMO, is a smaller clone of SC and I see him spending his freshman year growing both physically and mentally for the college game.

I agree with most of your assessment TMH, but I don’t think AP will turn out to be a smaller SC clone. SC is getting better on defense, but has really struggled on that end of the floor and has very limited quickness. AP is said to be a terrefic defender, which requires both quickness and desire. I think AP will turn out to be significantly more well rounded and athletic than SC. He is very slight but has a great basketball frame, and I’m hopeful the LU strength staff can help him add some muscle and explosiveness a la CJ who came in with a similar body type.

[jrenningParticipant]

I will stay away from predicting lineups but I have seen TK live during AAU and if he does not play huge minutes or start than LU is in great shape. This kid is real good.

[TMHParticipant]

jrenning…..thanks for the input. We have been commenting about the lack of video on TK but based on everything I have read, I agree with your assessment. Can you tell us more about your son’s game since there is virtually no video on him either. There will be no CJ on the squad next year so I suspect that the #2 guard position will be up for grabs over the next few years.
StablerBum, my assessment on AP was based mostly on his offensive game. Although I have heard good things about his game defensively, currently he is very thin and that could make for a rough short term transition to the college game. Of course, this is all speculation. These positions will likely go to the players who want them the most and are willing to do the heavy lifting to get there.

[jrenningParticipant]

I hesitate to say  much about my own son as I am obviously bias. However, I will say that he is pretty explosive with a 35inch vertical and a legit 4.5 forty time measured at Nike Sparq football camp. Physically he has a college body weighing about 190 lbs.  I believe that he will have to continue to work on his ball handling and become a more disciplined defensive player at the college level. Cole is a natural scorer and has proven it against anyone he has played against including many division 1 players. Obviously his numbers would not have been as inflated if he played for  schools like AP or MS. There is no question the level of competition in our league is very average which in my opinion is a major reason some recruiters over looked Cole.   As a dad I am obviously biased but  I  can without hesitation  promise this, Cole is a gym rat and will work and compete as hard as he can to win.

I am very excited to watch the program over the next four years and only hope Cole does his part to help it be successful.

[lehigh90Participant]

I think Kempton is a virtual lock to start at the 5 next season.  Guys his size, with any ability at all, are not bench players in the PL.  He’s not waiting in the wings behind Ralph Sampson.  He is the only legit sized 5 on the roster.  He is not a 6’7″ or 6’8″ guy, trying to play center, who really may be a 4.  He is a legit 6’10” (maybe 6″10″+) with some developed game.  He is not a 7 footer that you are taking a flyer on, as a project.  With his size, there is no way he is not a starter.  Look at Gabe.  He is smaller, with probably a lesser high school resume than TK, and was a starter day 1.  I think you need some beef next to him to clear the glass, and I think that will be JG, but it could be JC, CB or SW.

I am penciling Kempton in next season for 12 and 8.  I think this guy is going to be the real deal.  1500 point scorer, 4 year starter.  Going out on a limb.  I like the pedigree.

 

 

 

[TMHParticipant]

Trivia question: Gabe Knutsen was a 2X 2nd team 4A All-State selection at Urbandale HS in Iowa.
Without looking it up, can anyone tell me what other college F was also a 2nd team selection with Gabe?

[StablerBumParticipant]

I’m going with Dougie McBuckets a.k.a. Doug McDermott

[TMHParticipant]

Ding, ding, ding…we have a winner!!! Very good StablerBum.

[LU65Participant]

Great recap, Lehigh90! I would go with your picks right down the line and underscore the need to give Corey Schaefer more minutes and start, without question, Tim Kempton at the “5.” Who gets time at the 3 and 4 is anyone’s guess. It’ll depend, I suppose, on the player’s progression on defense – a Reed staple – and the game by game need to either big or small.

At the “Point:” Tell me we’re not blessed to have Mackey, Corey, and a boatload of expected talent arriving this summer. I can think of 9 other PL teams who wish they had what we have. Here’s a quick at our two stars at the point.

Player / PPG / FG% / 3FG% / FT% / A-TO Ratio

MM / 11.9 / .429 / .303 / .788 / 1.65
CS / 4.6 / .455 / .396* / .759 / 2.75**

* Assuming BJ is not returning, CS’s 3FG% represent the highest on the team if you exclude – which I did – Devon Carter’s 1 for 1 from beyond the arc.

** While the official PL Stat page shows Lafayette’s Tony Johnson to have led the league in A/TO Ratio last year @2.1, I contend the honor goes to our guy, Corey, @2.75. The PL says, ” To be ranked, a player must appear in at least 75.0% of their team’s games.” Well, Corey played in all 31 games. So, I don’t get it!

Two scary thoughts, again assuming BJ is not returning:

1. We return just 45.3% of our scoring with MM represented 79% of that!

and

2. We return just 43.7% of our rebounding.

No doubt, a giant challenge awaits us. But, from scanning the league websites and message boards, we’re not alone.

[LUHoops00Participant]

You guys nailed this yesterday, few comments on different topics listed above.

1.) I think AP has a lot more to his game than SC’s spot up shooting, that was apparent to me from the other night. AP will attack off dribble when opportunity is there, SC hasn’t shown that yet in 2 years on campus. Love SC, but he is spot up 3 point specialist right now, he can and will need to develop, but AP has more dribble to his game.

2.) JC is definitely a Greiner type 4, but bigger and longer, but not as quick as Holden. With that, I think he is a 4 man, definitely not a 5, and until I see him again for first time in a year and a half next fall I think he’s to big for a PL 3. I think a lot of reason we’ve gone 3 guards is personel, we’ve been guard heavy and frontcourt week. I think SW is a key swing man here for this lineup, if healthy, he could be your athletic 3 man at a 6’6 that backs in on smaller 3’s and is too quick with the dribble for bigger 3’s. He is a matchup problem, I like his game. So what I think we have is a guarantee in TK at the 5, think he starts day 1 as otehrs agree with and mentioned, JG as we’ve seen can play the 4 or 5 in PL with his length, and JC I think is a 4, definitely not a 5 and maybe can slide down to a 3 but I don’t think so at this point. SW I think you can play at the 3 and maybe the 4 in PL cause he is an athlete. SO I think best thing is you got flexibility. Start TK at 5 and if he has to come out you can slide JG to the 5 and let JC or SW at the 4 with 3 guards. If you want to go big you can have SW at 3, with JC or JG at 4, and TK at 5, with two guards. Lots of options next year, which is so exciting.

3.) Agree early on AD and CS get PT, but will be interesting to see if SC keeps developing and how AP/MS do in battle for minutes versus AD, CS, and SC. None of these 3 have proven they’re all league guys, more role guys through atleast half of their careers and 3/4 in case of AD, so if one of the incoming guards breaks right they could unseat one of these guys. We know what we got in backcourt, and we should be fine there especially if one of the three incoming guards break right, but key to next year is getting atleast two of the 3 from the SW/JC/TK camp breaking right. If thath appens, we should be able to compete again for title.

 

[TMHParticipant]

Hoops,
There are so many unknowns to next year. I suspect that is why projecting can be so much fun. We don’t even know how the “knowns” will develop from having to be role players to go to guys.
1.)I hope you are right about AP. Statistically, he has only attempted 89 2 pt shots in 28 games. Throw out estimated fast break layups and I think you are down to 2-3 attempts/game against HS competition. By contrast, he has taken 181 3 pointers. Dribble penetration will not get easier among the trees next year.
http://www.maxpreps.com/athletes/_0rtT6VFH0SM_ADkWYWGXw/basketball-winter-12-13/stats-austin-price.htm
2.)JC is still very much of an enigma to me. All I know is that he has a great basketball physique and is a bit raw. Film indicated that he can shoot the 3. England suggested that he stays around the basket. Time will tell. SW, to me at least, may be a little smaller version of HG. I would describe the latter as a high energy guy, capable of going inside or shooting from the perimeter, very active on the floor, rebounding, diving for balls etc. The little I read about SW, I see the same type of player. I would like to see him start at the #3 which leads me to…
3.)I think that we have the potential of actually out-rebounding opponents this year if we go with the traditional bigger lineup. We certainly lost some scoring but I think we gained athleticism and physicality in the front court. The question then becomes who do we get our points from. MM will get his. I agree with Lehigh90 that TK could be a 12/8 guy. I the combination of #2 guards (any combination ) can get us about 25-28 ppg, we can be in pretty good shape.

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