December 20, 2011 at 4:05 pm #4280
Resulting Chance of Winning: MS 79-64 89% chance
Resulting Winning Margin: MS by 15
http://www.lehighsports.com/assets/1/wo … /47127.PDF
MS lost their first two games of the year to NC and Duke and has won each time out since with convincing wins over: Texas Southern, Arkansas Little Rock, Eastern Michigan, Missouri-Kansas City, and Nebraska – Omaha – each bearing a Ken Pomeroy ranking north of 200 and 3 above 300. Talk about a "cupcake schedule!" Not a lot different, in my eyes, than Lehigh taking on Arcadia.
Some numbers to chew on:
14,797 = the number of fans who will fill the arena on Thursday night
650 = miles that separate the two schools
214 = average weight of the Michigan State starters, headed by 6’10", 240lb center, Adreine Payne
178 = miles to Traverse City, MI (home of Holden Greiner)
92 = miles to St. Clair Shores, MI (home of Kevin McCarthy)
23.6 = Michigan State’s margin of victory during their 10 game winning streak (since dropping their first two games to Duke and North Carolina
10.1 = Rebounding Margin in favor of Michigan State thru 12 games played
10 = game winning streak on the line for Michigan State
2 = as in ESPN2 @ 9pm, EST
.662 = Michigan State’s Team FT%
.474 = 3Pt. Shooting Percentage of Travis Trice, Michigan State’s top gunnerDecember 20, 2011 at 6:51 pm #4285
Make that ESPNU and ESPN3 and not ESPN2.December 20, 2011 at 11:20 pm #4286
65 – thanks for starting the thread, I have been waiting for this game thread and fired up that we can start chatting about this game. Yes, msu has beaten up on some softies, can perhaps we catch them overlooking us post exams? Our guys have had exams but on national tv against ranked team, one would believe there is no way our guys aren’t fired up to get at the spartans on Thursday.
Couple key questions, and I will start with that world university camp this summer with a then pair of teammates and not opponents.
1. Who matches up with green who does just about everything for msu? Leads iin ppg, rbg, and I believe apg.
2. Does cj shake off the "big game" struggles and come out wanting to take the game over and show he is going to get his all night?
3. 3 pt shots must fall to have a shot Thursday? Need to shoot 45 or better from deep imo.
Fired up so fired up.
Go LU.December 21, 2011 at 7:37 am #4287
Fired up is right. Go get em LU! I look for the tough kids to hit the floor in this game. Adams should be back, Maneri should get some good minutes, he likes to bang, and of course Hamilton should be on point. Go seniors. Tough break for McCarthy being at home. I hope Greiner has a good showing in front of his family and friends. Leaving work early, hope there are no emergencies at work Thursday. Let’s go LU!!!December 21, 2011 at 2:37 pm #4289
I think Lehigh keeps this game close. I think they lose by less than 10 points, and at the half, I think it is close to tied. MSU will wear them down in the second half. Definitely a barometer game. Bucknell had theirs last night at Syracuse and lost by 19, but was down big at the half. Game never in doubt. But, Syracuse is better, and a tougher place to play. I think Lehigh gives them a bit of a scare. CJ goes for at least 25.December 21, 2011 at 6:59 pm #4291
Clearly, The Spartans have the most talent and for Mountain Hawks to keep it close or have any hope of pulling an upset, we’ll have to:
(1) hit a high percentage of our shots (expect more than the usual number of 3pt attempts as two made 3’s equals 3 of their made 2’s) since there appears little hope of grabbing many missed shots or matching 2’s with 2’s (see rebounding and point stats below)
(2) get to the line where we hold a distinct advantage. Fully expect to see all members of the starting five – especially CJ and Mackey – when not taking a 3 to drive the ball to the basket looking to get hacked
Ken Pomeroy Comparative Rankings (345 D-I teams)
Tempo (average number of possessions/game)
MS 68.3 (124th ranked)
LU 70.8 (30th ranked)
D-I Average 67.3
Offensive Rebounding (% of boards you nab off your offensive glass)
MS 38.3% (30th ranked)
LU 30.9% (223rd ranked)
Defensive Rebounding (% of boards you yield while on defensive)
MS 25.6% (15th ranked)
LU 31.1% (114th ranked)
Shooting Accuracy (%)
2’s (MS 53.2% and 39th ranked………..LU 50.7% or 82nd ranked)
3’s (MS 34.2% and 166th ranked……..LU 32.7% and 207th ranked)
FT’s (MS 66.2% and 231st ranked…….LU 78.2% and 4th ranked)
Point Distribution (% of points attributable to………….)
2’s (MS 58.0% and 49th ranked……..LU 49.2% and 240th ranked)
3’s (MS 22.4% and 281st ranked……..LU 25.6% and 207th ranked)
FTs (MS 19.5% and 213th ranked……..LU25.2% and 23rd ranked)December 21, 2011 at 7:28 pm #4292
I think this is a winnable game for LU. The team should be fresh and healthy coming off exams. They haven’t played for over a week so should have had ample time prepare for MSU mentally and physically. They shouldn’t be intimidated ed to play a BCS level team – they know they blew the St. John’s game and have already played on the road in front of 12k+ at ISU.
What they need to do to win – REBOUND, defend, take care of the ball, and knock down some shots – are the same as any other game, they just need to do all four and do them at a high level for 40 minutes (not 32 like St. Johns or 20 like ISU).
Their confidence should be high with the current record and coming off the good road win at Wagner. And CJ is due for a big scoring game. This game is a HUGE opportunity without much to lose. Go get ’em!December 21, 2011 at 7:35 pm #4293
Also, my post fired me up so much that I will say that I think LU will win this game. The time has come for this team – no more moral victories and close calls. Let’s pull the upset and get some attention.
BTW, LU has 8 points in the most recent midmajortop25.com poll, which makes them the 36th ranked mid-major in the country and 33 "points" outside of the top 25. A win over MSU would undoubtedly leapfrog them a few spots!!December 21, 2011 at 10:57 pm #4294
MS Down Low (excerpts from their Game Notes)
….In The Paint
Michigan State has out-scored its opponents in the paint by an average of 37.0-22.5, out-scoring 10 of its 12 opponents. The Spartans even out-scored No. 1 North Carolina in the paint, 34-32, despite the Tar Heels having what some consider to be the premier frontline in the country.
….On the Boards
After leading the nation in rebounding margin in both 2009 (+9.3) and 2010 (+8.6), Michigan State ranked 48th in the nation last season at +4.0. The Spartans have shown a better effort in 2011-12, out-rebounding 11 of 12 opponents by a +10.2 margin, including four by 15 or more, leading the Big Ten and ranking seventh in the nation (through Dec. 18). One of the reasons that MSU is able to rank among the nation’s leaders in rebounding margin is that its guards have been strong on the glass. The Spartans’ starting backcourt of Keith Appling (3.2 rpg), Brandon Wood (2.9 rpg) and Branden Dawson (4.4 rpg) averages 10.5 boards per contest.
Michigan State is outscoring opponents 168-101 in second chance points for the season. That’s an average of +5.6 per game (14.0-8.4). The Spartans are averaging 13.3 offensive rebounds per game, ranking second in the Big Ten. MSU has 159 offensive rebounds on the year compared to 254 defensive rebounds for its opponents, good for an offensive rebound percentage of .385, ranking second in the conference.
Going into this game, I’m betting Gabe, Holden, Jordan, John, and Justin are thinking back to the night of March 18, 2010 when they each faced a strikingly similar challenge in the paint from the Kansas Jayhawks out in Oklahoma City. On that night Marcus Morris, Cole Aldrich and Company were too much for the Lehigh underclassmen to handle down low. While Kansas outrebounded us 41-33 and outscored us in the paint 52-18, we didn’t back away from the challenge and won’t, I’m sure, tomorrow night either. In fact, freshman Knutson gave us 29 minutes, scored 8, and pulled down 6 boards. It was a great learning experience for him and the others and a taste of what they can expect tomorrow night. Oh yeah, CJ – after a slow start – scored 26, had 7 boards, 3 assists and 3 steals. I have no fear, we’ll be ready to compete.
Can’t wait for lucky Game #13 (for each) to tip.
Any one lucky enough to be going to the game? Viewing Parties planned?December 21, 2011 at 11:00 pm #4295
3 ball is going to be critical, need to go something like 8 for 18 or 10 for 23. Also, on rebounding front, if they could just keep rebounding margin to sat -5 and not -double digits that would mean we are not giving up a ton of second shots. CJ is really overdue for kent state type performance, and not st johns type effort.
Matchups will be interesting, especially on green. Reed has proven to be not inclined to double team stars, per sju godsgift and white vs iowa state, so will be interesting to see what him and his staff have thought up for defending green tomorrow.
I got yuengling locked and loaded in the fridge ready for 9pm manana, just can not get there quick enough.December 22, 2011 at 1:06 am #4296
For those that are perhaps seeking more data on CJ vs. big/bcs conference schools, I’ve provided stats below versus the 5 big conference schools he’s balled against in his 2+ years. Clearly, we need more if we want to walk away with a W at Breslin tomorrow night. The list below, is in chronological order, starting with freshman year.
Kansas – 1st round NCAA Tourney, 7-21 from the field, 2-8 from 3, 26 points. If memory serves, most of those points came in garbage time, last 8 minutes of game after KU blew it open.
Penn State – Season opener last year, the "battle’ vs. T Battle, all big 10 guard from PSU, 3-11 from field, 0-2 from 3, 7 points. Quiet quiet game for CJ.
USC – December trip out west for Ojo homecoming, 2-8 from field, 0-2 from 3, 7 points.
SJU – Opener this year, on ESPN2, 6-17 from field, 3-7 from 3, 19 points. Huge 1st half, I was at game sitting behind bench, as was ’65 in attendance, but huge 1st half and uber-quiet 2nd half where he went to long of stretches without taking shot and trying to take game over.
Iowa State – Game 2 this year, Knutson homecoming, 6-14 from field, 0-5 from 3, 16 points.
Tally the totals, and you’re talking 24-71 from the field, .338 fg%, 5-24 from 3 for .208 3pt fg%…..
CJ has it all, I want to see a big time performance versus a big time team that is keying on him and focusing on him. I also want to see the ‘old Dr. actually run sets and plays for him early, get him involved for crying outloud, and if CJ is being to unselfish for stretches it is the ‘ole Dr. job/responsibility to reengage him by running him off screens and setting plays up for him to get him going.
We clearly need more then this short/small 5 game sample size, but for LU to win CJ is going to have to go for atleast 22 and have offense run through him as he draws D attention.
LUHoops00December 22, 2011 at 1:15 am #4297
FYI – LU at Breslin right this second practicing, great pic below for those on twitter.
Also – anyone going to this game, I’m so pissed I’m not going…if LU wasn’t in new england twice in next 16 odd days, I’d find a way to have gone.December 22, 2011 at 3:46 pm #4299
Not to throw cold water on a very postive game for the program, but…. the most likely, best outcome tonight is that we don’t get blown out. We need to look like we belong. It’s great exposure for Lehigh and the league, and incredibly helpful in the mid-major recruiting arena. Bucknell had a similar opportunity and represented themselves very well in the second half against the #1 team in the country. They looked like they belonged there.
I think we can do better than Bucknell. The first key is Knutson. This is one of the most physical teams in the country. We need Gabe to have the game of his life underneath and not get in early foul trouble, so we don’t get killed with easy buckets on defense. Secondly, MSU probable figures the only way Lehigh can be a threat is if C.J. goes off for big numbers. They will have their best two defenders on & off him, and try to hound him all night. I don’t think C.J.’s final totals are that important, if he can keep them occupied and Greiner & Hamilton have a great shooting night. And that we don’t have early jitters. It think this is all very do-able.
To outright win the game however, in addition to the above, we need MSU to look past us, finally have a down game (they are due), get frustrated, get some early fouls on key people, plus have an off shooting night. Not probable, but certainly not impossible. My dear departed dad was a Bucknell alum. You have no idea how thrilling that Kansas NCAA upset was to me. I’d love to have that feeling again tonight about 11:30.December 23, 2011 at 12:43 am #4300
80 minutes to go!
Double-teaming CJ is all but assured. With it, shooting opportunities (and they need be 3’s in my opinion) are likely to develop – with good player movement – for Holden, Jordan, Mackey and Stefan (when in the game). Granted, we’ll have to convert those opportunities at an extraordinary rate to stay close to The Spartans. But, it’s possible. Each player has shown flashes of brilliance in the past, with Holden, who is actually tied with CJ for the team-lead in 3pt. attempts, being the most recent example going 5 for 6 from deep against SFU. A couple of our "bigs" like HG and JH nailing a few 3’s could force defenders out and open up what will probably be precious fee rebounding opportunities for us, as well. Hey, why not dream?
Grab that Yuengling and enjoy the game.
Talk tomorrow.December 23, 2011 at 2:59 am #4302
Half time with the lead, perfect scenario. 14 fouls against, some were stupid fouls by us like maneri 20 feet from hoop, others were tough calls, but we’re getting killed on the glass, wish mccarthy was around man he would help tonight down low.
Is HG knee okay for 2nd half? He was money in the bank in first 20.
Maybe late bucket and one, and two fts on izzo T gets CJ going. To be up, with CJ getting limited minutes due to two quickies, is a very good things.
Fired up for 2nd half…..nervous, and fired up.
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