January 11, 2011 at 10:36 pm #3113
Navy (5-12….0-1) @ LU (9-7….0-1)
Sagarin Rankings and Resulting Lines
Rankings (345 D-I schools)
Lehigh / Navy
Sagarin: 156 / 301
RPI: 167 / 327
Pomeroy: 212 / 288
Resulting Line and Chance of Winning
Sagarin: LU – 13
Pomeroy: LU wins 82-70 (86 % Chance)
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/nav … otes18.pdfJanuary 12, 2011 at 1:11 am #3114January 12, 2011 at 6:20 pm #3116
Last Minute Thoughts
Rebounding – We have played 16 games to date and are 6 and 0 when winning the battle on the boards while going 3 and 7 in games in which we have been out-rebounded. That’s sad (-4.1 rpg margin) but not as bad as Navy’s rebound margin of -11.5. This is a game in which we should finally control the boards and make it 7 and 0 at the end of the night but more importantly evening our record at 1-1 after two in the PL.
Points in the Paint – BU’s height and muscle advantage led to a 34-18 "PIP" advantage for the Bison in their game against Navy on Saturday. While perhaps not as strong – but certainly as tall – as the BU squad, I’m looking for Knutson and Company to win the interior point production battle tonight and together with some aggressive D key a victory.
3 Point FGs – Navy has taken the most 3’s of anyone in the PL with 455 attempts. That’s 26.8 per game!
Yet, they make the second fewest in percentage terms (.288) of anyone, edging out only Colgate. That still equates to 7.7 Made 3’s/game or two more hits than Lehigh makes each game from long range. In their opener against Bucknell, the Midshipmen took 33 three’s and only 23 two’s. Lucky for the Bison they hit only 8 from long distance (.242) in a game Bucknell won by just seven and featured eight ties. We must shut down their perimeter scorers or run the risk of losing tonight’s game to a hot-handed Sugars, Brown or Avilia – anyone of which could go off and make a half dozen 3’s of their own. It’ll be fun to watch Mackey, Ojo and CJ extend their M2M D tonight beyond the arc.
4. PL All-Access. At $19.95 for the season, it’s a no-brainer. Switching between 4 live games tonight and all season long. Too bad the start times couldn’t be staggered a bit, e.g., two at 7:00 and two at 8:00 pm. Although, I see the BU/AU game is at 7:30 tonight. Muscala vs. Vlad. Must see!
5. Where are LU’s rooting interests tonight? Suppose you could argue each way. Would you rather see (A) a 2-0 AU team atop the league tied with either HC or Army – also at 2-0 or (B) both AU and BU tied at 1-1 trailing either HC or Army at 2-0?
6. CJ and his quest for 1,000 points. With 29 tonight, the super sophomore will hit the milestone in what will be his 50th career game. I can only assume a handful of players in D-I have done it quicker, but I don’t know. Bison 137, I’m counting on you to have the answer.January 13, 2011 at 3:40 pm #3119
Football or Basketball. Hard to determine at times in a game highlighted by 43 foul calls and 41 turnovers.
Jinx Broken. Navy had won the last four at Stabler and Brett Reed carried a 1 and 5 record against Navy into the game.
Rebounding. Once again, we win the rebounding battle, we win the game. This time by a healthy margin: 56 to 39. Said another way, we corralled 59% of the misses.
CJ: Limited somewhat by 4PFs, he still found a way to hit for 23, bring down 11 boards (none bigger than the one resulting in a 3 point play to tie the game at 61 late in the contest), and calmly drop 7 of 7 from the free throw line raising his average from 15′ to .841. CJ did miss both of his 3 pt. attempts (recent trouble noted above in post), but was solid in every other aspect of the game and continued to showed signs that he is ready to carry this team when others are having "off" nights, as was the case yesterday. Last night it was Ojo’s turn going 2 for 13.
Limiting Navy’s Threes. While they hit for 36.8% on 7 for 19 shooting, that wasn’t enough for Navy to overcome LU’s point dominance from inside the arc. LU hit 21 two’s to Navy’s twelve. Had Navy been able to launch their usual number of threes (27), there’s no telling how close the outcome would have been or if Lehigh could have held on for the win. You’re just glad Avilia, Navy’s 6’7" frosh, didn’t get more open looks. He went 3 for 6 from deep and could have stolen the show if given the chance.
Gabe’s First Double-Double (18 pts. / 14 rebounds). Tireless warrior and steady performer. That’s all you can say. Hard to believe that was his first D-D.
Self-confidence. Coach Reed brought it out in his post-game comments, but it bears repeating here. Although Greiner and Ojo were not finding the bottom of the net for the first 37 minutes of play (combined 2 for 18), they didn’t hesitate to pull the trigger when the game was on the line. Each sank open threes late – Ojo’s to break the tie and Greiner’s to put us up by six.
Missed Opportunities from the Line. Navy has no one to blame but themselves. We sent them to the line 28 times (we visited it 9 fewer times) and they hit for only 18.
5th Man Search May be Over. Holden Greiner give 30 minutes and didn’t disappoint while scoring just 5 points on 2 for 7 shooting, he did have 5 boards, 4 steals, and 3 blocks.
Avworo. Sorry Prentice, you’re not the fastest guard to the basket.
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.