Patriot League Tournament Scenarios

[lfnadminKeymaster]

The seeding for three of the games in the PL tournament are set: No. 1 American, No. 2 Holy Cross, No. 3 Navy. After that, the final five spots are completely up for grabs with Lehigh (5-8), Colgate (5-8), Army (5-8), Bucknell (4-9), and Lafayette (4-9). As many as 5 teams can tie for the No. 4 spot.

The tiebreaker is:
1. Common records between tied teams
2. Common records between teams not in the tie
3. RPI

Lehigh: RPI 240, Army 1-1, Bucknell 1-1, Colgate 1-1, Lafayette 1-1
Lafayette: RPI 306, Army 0-2, Bucknell 1-1, Colgate 1-1, Lehigh 1-1
Colgate: RPI 292, Army 2-0, Bucknell 1-1, Lehigh 1-1, Lafayette 1-1
Bucknell: RPI 296, Army 0-1*, Lehigh 1-1, Lafayette 1-1, Colgate 1-1
Army: RPI 308, Bucknell 1-0*, Lehigh 1-1, Lafayette 2-0, Colgate 0-2

* game remaining

In many tie-breaking scenarios – incredibly – Lehigh gets the edge due to their higher RPI than the rest of the contenders. (Thanks Rutgers.)

Lehigh gets the No. 4 seed if:
* Lehigh beats HC and Bucknell beats Army (6-8 conf. record if Colgate loses, best non-tiebreak win vs. HC)
* Lehigh beats HC, Army beats Bucknell, and Navy Beats Colgate (Lehigh has best non-tiebreak win vs. HC)

Matrix:
LU/Buck/Navy/Laf
LU/Buck/Navy/AU
LU/Buck/Colgate/Laf
LU/Buck/Colgate/AU
LU/Army/Navy/Laf
LU/Army/Navy/AU

Colgate gets the No. 4 seed if:
* Colgate beats Navy and HC beats Lehigh (6-8 conf. record if Army loses, and wins head-to-head tiebreaker with Army)
* Colgate beats Navy and Army beats Bucknell (2- or 3- way tie at 6-8, Colgate wins the head-to-head tiebreaker)
* Navy beats Colgate, Bucknell beats Army, HC beats Lehigh (4- or 5-way tie at 5-9, Colgate holds head-to-head tiebreaker)

Matrix:
HC/Gate/Army/Laf
HC/Gate/Army/AU
HC/Gate/Buck/Laf
HC/Gate/Buck/AU
LU/Gate/Army/Laf
LU/Gate/Army/AU
HC/Navy/Buck/Laf
HC/Navy/Buck/AU

Army gets the No. 4 seed if:
* Army beats Bucknell, HC beats Lehigh and Navy beats Colgate (6-8 conf. record)

Matrix:
HC/Navy/Army/Laf
HC/Navy/Army/AU

Other notes:

* If Lafayette beats American and Army beats Bucknell, they will win any tiebreakers (with best non-tied team victory). They can finish as high as No. 5 in that case and no lower than No. 7. If they lose, they are a lock for the No. 8 seed.

* Bucknell can finish as high as No. 5 if Colgate, Lehigh, and Army all lose (with best non-tied team victory, their win over Holy Cross). If they lose, they will be either the No. 7 or No. 8 seed.

* If Colgate and Army both finish tied, Colgate wins any tiebreaker since they were 2-0 against the Black Knights. However, if Army wins and Colgate loses, the Raiders actually lose many tiebreakers (notably to Bucknell and (potentially) Lafayette) – they could finish as low as No. 6 in that case.

For Lehigh, if they win at HC on Saturday, they have a very good shot at the No. 4 seed. If they lose, they are likely a No. 6 and could drop to No. 7 if Lafayette upsets American.

:o

[Bison137Participant]

"lfnadmin" wrote:

In many tie-breaking scenarios – incredibly – Lehigh gets the edge due to their higher RPI than the rest of the contenders. (Thanks Rutgers.)

Lots of interesting scenarios. I’m annoyed because Bucknell would have had a good chance for #4 had they beaten LC – a game they should have won easily.

Just out of curiousity, in which ones does the Lehigh RPI come into play? Looking quickly, I don’t see them.

I don’t think you need to thank Rutgers too much in the RPI department, because their ranking in terms of effect on their opponents’ strength of schedule is only #234. Schools such as Albany and Columbia actually rank higher – although the LU wins over those two weren’t quite as valuable because they were home wins. Even if LU had played a second game at NJIT, the worst team in the nation, instead of Rutgers, it would still be comfortably ahead of the other PL also-rans in RPI.

[lfnadminKeymaster]

Thanks for the heads-up bison137. I thought the win over Rutgers played more heavily into it that it actually did.

Originally I thought RPI would come into play, but after I studied it I discovered that it will all come down to head-to-head and conference tiebreakers (since I forgot if Lehigh beats HC, they’ll have the edge over Colgate on that tiebreaker). AFAIK it won’t come down to RPI for the No. 4 seed, though it might for No. 5 or below.

It is too bad that your Bison didn’t beat Laf since by virtue of your win over HC you’d have had an excellent shot at the No. 4 seed. But if you play like you did on Wednesday, I’d say you have an excellent shot at pulling off an upset or two.

[LU65Participant]

Thank God, the PL has spoken! Here’s how we can claim the 4th spot in the Playoffs:

"The Mountain Hawks can capture the No. 4 seed with a win as long either Colgate or Army loses. Lehigh cannot clinch the No. 4 spot with a loss. Lehigh can finish anywhere between the No. 4 and No. 7 seed."

As for Colgate, Lafayette, Bucknell and Army, see scenarios in release below.

http://patriotleague.cstv.com/sports/m- … 09aab.html

[lfnadminKeymaster]

Looks like I got it right, though the league did a much more eloquent job describing the scenarios than I did though :lol:

For Lehigh, if they win they stand an excellent chance of hosting a game. Of course, what are the odds they will actually win at HC?

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