December 29, 2015 at 10:20 pm #24526
Night One/Game One Forecast
December 30, 2015
AWP @ LU……..AWP by 2
BU @ HC……..BU by 1
LC @ CU……..CU by 5
N @ BUCKY……..BUCKY by 3
AU @ LOY……..LOY by 7
Here’s a look at how KenPom’s groups (my language) the PL teams heading into play tomorrow night. I have included his present day ranking (out of 351) and, for a bit of history, noted each team’s PL Preseason Poll Ranking (1st thru 10th)
Top of the Heap
AWP (137) 4th
BU (169) 3rd
N (192) 10th
Middle of the Pack
BUCKY (211) 2nd
LU (242) 1st
HC (252) 8th
LOY (269) 7th
CU (283) 9th
LC (296) 6th
AU (312) 5th
Who’s hot and who’s not over the last 5 games?
BU 4-1….Loss to Canisius by 16 on Dec. 19th
AWP 4-1….Loss to Marist by 6 on Dec. 20th
N 3-2….One “L” was to 30th ranked Oregon
LU 2-3….Two “Ws” against weak Rochester and MSM
HC 2-3….The “Ls”were to Rhode Island, Albany and Kansas
CU 2-3…The “Ls” were to Gerogia Tech, Syracues, and TCU
AU 1-4….Youngstown State was the only “W”
LC 1-4….Sacred Heart was the only “W”
LOY 0-5….Kansas and Northwestern in that group of 5
BUCKY 0-5 …. Despite scoring an average of 77.6 ppg
A closer look at Game 1: AWP @ LU
While our OOC schedules differed greatly in terms of strength of schedule (SOS), here are the team stats coming into tomorrow night’s home opener:
Item LU / AWP
SOS 13th / 290th
2FG% .454 / 51.1
3FG% .342 / 38.4
FT% .728 / 67.7
Scoring Offense 66.8 / 85.7
Scoring Defense 75.5 / 76.3
Rebounding Margin -3.7 / +4.5
Kempton (16.8)/Price (13.8)
Plomb (21.3 )/Wilson (17.9)
Kempton (8.6)……Ferguson (8.3)
Who will be in attendance tomorrow night? Row and Section?December 30, 2015 at 5:57 pm #24554
Hard to make a call on this one. I’m surprised Pomeroy has it as only a 2 point game. Thought Army would be a bigger favorite. That gives me some hope, as that guy is usually right on the number.
Army raced out to a really strong start and now sit at 9-3, but they have beaten a load of garbage. There are only two meaningful barometer games to me, so far, in their schedule. I throw out losses to GW, Tennessee, which were no surprise. Third loss at home to a pretty soft Marist squad was surprising, that was my first head scratcher. But, the game that got my attention was Army’s win on Monday vs. a really strong Monmouth squad. Head scratcher number two.
So, really eager to see how this plays out, assuming Timmy suits up. A win shows maybe we are a PL factor.
For me, game comes down to one thing, how well do we defend the 3 point line on the perimeter. You know Army is going to bomb away (excuse the pun) from 3 with Wilson and Plomb taking about 20 3 pointers per game, and hitting about 40%. If we take away or limit that, I like our chances. If they get good open looks, we are done, and it might get ugly.December 30, 2015 at 6:06 pm #24555
Just noticed something else about Army. Kyle Wilson has had a hell of a nice career there over the last 4 years. He, pretty quietly, is on pace to score 2,000 points.December 30, 2015 at 11:19 pm #24560
Tk moving well in warmups.December 31, 2015 at 12:42 am #24561
1st H almost over for Men and Women…LU getting hammered by Army!December 31, 2015 at 3:09 am #24562
Yet another game where we sleepwalk thru the first 10 minutes,wake up to make a run til half. And then the standard grand final run for a score that would lead those not viewing the game to conclude that it was a contest.
Army is good. We could be if we played anywhere near a whole game. Our D was comical for most of the 1st half. Only upside was TK played well.December 31, 2015 at 3:16 am #24563
guys just seem to fall asleep at random times, sloppy turnovers, lost coverage, hard to watch sometimesDecember 31, 2015 at 3:20 am #24564
travismParticipantDecember 31, 2015 at 3:23 am #24566
Very good. Article. Timmy was upset after game. Late in game seen him screaming at chuku. Poor first half. I felt we should have got out of man and went zone. Kyle didn’t play well again. Nothing from Jenkins, glover, or dc. Army is really good. Very deep. We need to get better. Also seems reed can never make adjustments.December 31, 2015 at 3:51 am #24568
Tough loss. TK back in a big way. But, can’t let Army shoot it that well and win.December 31, 2015 at 3:58 am #24569
Doc not the best of game coaches. Perimeter D non existent for long stretches. Seems a lot of their 3s were on kickouts to shooters who we kept losing track of.JG only playexd 14 mins. Why?December 31, 2015 at 5:13 am #24571
AWP ran us out of the gym in the first 20 minutes. Plain and simple. As advertised, they played up-tempo and hit threes (7 of them….can hardly remember the 3 them missed). All in the first half. We looked surprised and shouldn’t have been. Disappointed in prep.
Another worry – if we don’t have enough – we had 8 points off the bench. Our top 5 won’t be able to do it alone. The season is too long and there’s always the threat of more injuries.
Except for one memorable rebound (he actually had two), JG was MIA. Minutes were rightfully withheld, if you ask me.
I’m thinking “O” won’t be our problem this year. Scoring 48 in the second half was impressive. Probably tops in opening night action around the PL. What must be address is the “D” and that sense of urgency everyone talks about. Reed & Company (and I include our team captains), it’s up to you. We’ll see if the message is received when an 0-1 BU comes to Stabler on Saturday.
KenPom vs. Actual
Bucky by 3….Bucky by 30
AWP by 2….AWP by 6
BU by 1……HC by 16
CU by 5…..CU by 7
LOY by 7….Loy by 8December 31, 2015 at 11:37 am #24573
First half they shot the lights out against a not so stellar defense. Second half they cooled a bit and TK and better shot selection brought us back. Clearly the effort was there, particularly in the second half. And Army’s not bad.
But one thing was clear, we lost this game on basic fundamentals. Ridiculously poor passing. KL threw three in a row away. KR just as guilty. AND WILL WE EVER ****ING LEARN HOW TO BOX OUT !!! They got virtually every loose ball rebound with better positioning. And the final piece; 10 for 20 from the charity line. I thought we busted our tails the second half to got back in it, but it’s hard to win when you waste possessions and don’t make foul shots. Basic, basic, basic.December 31, 2015 at 3:22 pm #24574
I was chatting with Rich last night, trying to pinpoint our troubles. I was only able to listen last night – bad internet connection – so plenty of conjecture here:
2 things on my mind. First, athleticism. I totally agree that we don’t box out – but it also feels like opponents are jumping over us and out-quicking us too. I think the crazy number of our shots that are blocked supports this as well. Does this explain D failures too?
Second, I wonder about our offensive scheme. O just seems to stall often. Other teams always get some easy layups off of their motion. We don’t. Need more creativity?
Sounds like Tim was great; sorry I missed that.December 31, 2015 at 3:44 pm #24575
Watched some again this AM. Stats are deceptively even overall,altho FTs are terrible. We play at the end of 1st and at end of game. Otherwise we dont.
Dont think it is athleticism. Army got in postion to rebound we dont. Nor do we box out. On D,too often we lose focus and postion ,particulatly on the perimeter.
Long stretches on O where we seem befuddled,bad passes,no movement.
Bench was not our issue. Starters did not start either half at game speed.
Upsides ? TK. Guess,some solace can be found in keeping score close and only playing about half the game.
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