November 2, 2015 at 5:12 am #23173
* If Colgate wins out (beat Lafayette, Lehigh, Bucknell), they are PL champions. In this case Fordham would most certainly be in at 9-2 (wins over G’Town and Bucknell). 8-3 and they would be in deep trouble.
* If Lehigh wins out (beats HC, Colgate, Lafayette) they would be no worse than co-champions.
Then it gets interesting.
* If Lehigh and Fordham finish 5-1 in PL play, they are co-champions and Fordham gets the autobid based on head-to-head win.
* If Lehigh and Colgate finish 5-1 in PL play, they are co-champions and Lehigh gets the autobid based on head-to-head win.
* If Lehigh, Fordham and Colgate finish 5-1 in PL play, the tiebreakers go down as follows:
– Record of all the teams in the tie (push; all would be 2-1)
– Record of all the teams against other PL members (push; all would be 3-0)
– Record against common OOC opponents (again, a push. LU and Fordham both beat Penn, CU and LU both lost vs. Princeton and Yale)
– “If a tie still exists, a committee consisting of the athletics directors of each of the institutions not involved in the tie will make a final decision. The committee should consider various factors including, but not limited to, the following examples. Note: the examples are listed in no particular order:
a). strength of schedule
b). overall record
c). computer rankings
d). performance during second half of season”
So it would head to this final tiebreaker. Fordham, with their win over Army, would almost certainly win this tiebreaker.
People seem to think that 7-4 won’t be enough for a Lehigh (or Holy Cross) at-large. I think it depends on the number of playoff-eligible teams around. I don’t think a 6-5 Indiana State gets in over a 7-4 Lehigh, for example, if it comes to that.
November 2, 2015 at 12:16 pm #23175
- This topic was modified 4 years, 12 months ago by lfnadmin.
LFN, How is an 8-3 Fordham team “in deep trouble” re at large bid but Lehigh in at 7-4?November 2, 2015 at 1:36 pm #23176
WOW, thanks LFN. Just hope we can at least get a PL title, then let the chips fall where they may!November 2, 2015 at 1:37 pm #23177
[quote=23175]LFN, How is an 8-3 Fordham team “in deep trouble” re at large bid but Lehigh in at 7-4?
The theory is that Fordham would have ended the year losing 2 of 3 games to unranked teams, while a 7-4 Lehigh would have been undefeated in November on a 4 game winning streak.
I’d put 8-3 Fordham and a 7-4 Lehigh (or Holy Cross) in the same category for an at-large, about. Not a great chance and dependent on what else happens.
My big question is how many 6-5 teams will merit consideration? I can think of some that would and a whole lot of others that wouldn’t.November 2, 2015 at 1:44 pm #23178
More I think about it, Fordham at 8-3 would have a huge ace in the hole with a win over Army. No matter how much people try to downplay it elsewhere, I believe in the smoke-filled room it will have a big effect. I don’t see how you take a 6-5 team without an FBS win over an 8-3 team with an FBS win.
9-2 with an FBS win I think they will be selected.
November 3, 2015 at 1:47 am #23201
- This reply was modified 4 years, 12 months ago by lfnadmin.
Indiana State is from a “power conference” so I don’t assume anything!November 3, 2015 at 3:13 pm #23212
Imo, Fordham at 8-3 would be a very easy pick over Lehigh or HC at 7-4. Don’t know what Indiana State will do the rest of the season, but they are clearly better than any PL team.November 3, 2015 at 7:45 pm #23216
I took a look at the overall picture on CSJ:
The final team (and probably more) should have a 7-4 record. Just counting the autobid conferences, and not the schools I consider “locks”, there are 23 (!) different teams that could reach 7-4. Many will get eliminated over the last three weeks, but it shows the logjam.
Any shot at the PL getting an at-large involves:
* Towson not getting to 7 wins
* OVC only having at most one at-large team (possible that no at-large team gets to 7 D-I wins!)
* Perhaps a Big Sky team eliminating themselves
Crazier things have happened. Not great odds, but there is a chance.
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