PL Tiebreaker Mess

Forum Forum Lehigh Sports Lehigh Men’s Basketball PL Tiebreaker Mess

This topic contains 24 replies, has 10 voices, and was last updated by RichH RichH 8 years, 9 months ago.

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  • #4945

    lfnadmin
    Keymaster

    If Lehigh beats Army and American beats Bucknell this week, there will be a 3-way tie for first between Lehigh, American, and Bucknell.

    All would have identical records against each other – and would all have lost to Holy Cross (oddly enough, all in Worcester).

    Should the league end in the 3-way tie, who takes the No. 1 seed and guaranteed postseason spot (NCAA or NIT)? Does it go down to RPI ranking?

    • This topic was modified 8 years, 9 months ago by  lfnadmin.
    #4948
    ngineer
    ngineer
    Participant

    Makes no difference on the NCAA spot. Whoever wins the tournament gets the guaranteed NCAA spot. Colgate could go if they run the table…similar to Lehigh going back in 1985 with a horrible record.

    If regular season ends with a three way tie, then the #1 seed in the PL Tourney is based upon RPI, which I think goes to Lehigh at the moment!

    #4951
    van
    van
    Participant

    “American beats Lafayette this week”

    I think you meant American beats Bucknell, a scenario that could well play out.

    #4954

    TMH
    Participant

    Not completely true ngineer I believe.
    The team who wins the regular season championship is guaranteed an NIT invitation if they do not win the tournament championship.

    #4957

    lfnadmin
    Keymaster

    While this isn’t the RPI that is going to be used, before this week Real Time RPI read:

    Bucknell 70
    Lehigh 122
    American 145

    I’m reading this to mean Bucknell might need to lose twice before Lehigh passes them in that tiebreaker, but I don’t know what Lehigh’s 2 wins/Bucknell’s 2 losses has done to that thus far.

    #4970
    Bison137
    Bison137
    Participant

    Yes, it would go to RPI if there is a 3-way tie with each team having three losses. In that case, Bucknell gets the #1 seed since there is no chance at all of LU catching them in RPI. LU would be the 2 seed.

    RealtimeRPI often has mistakes. At present, Bucknell’s actual RPI ranking is #80 and LU’s is #107.

    BTW, the PL also went to RPI in 2006-07 when Bucknell and Holy Cross tied for 1st with identical 13-1 records.

    #4972

    LU65
    Participant

    You gotta like our chances of finishing second in the standings knowing AU must face a disgruntled BU squad tomorrow night and then close out the season against a Lafayette team that may have a lot to play for on Saturday, i.e., the chance to host a 1st round playoff game a week from Wednesday. Meanwhile, if all goes according to Hoyle, we should have little trouble with the service academies – Navy tomorrow and Army on Saturday. Of course, as they say, “that’s why they play the game.” Now, as many have pointed-out, should AU put down BU, we could be looking at a 3-way tie atop the league come the close of business on Saturday. It then becomes a matter of RPI. And, as Bison 137 has already opined, “there is no chance at all of LU catching them (BU) in RPI.” If he’s reading this post, he may wish to offer up a guess as to what the final RPI Standings would look like under the following scenario: 2 LU wins, 2 AU wins, a BU loss to AU and a BU win over Navy. Just how far back in the RPI standings would LU be? And, how about our chances of making it into the NIT as an at-large entry under such a finish – win them all yet losing the tournament finale finishing 25-8? In 2007, as B137 pointed out, HC and BU finished tied at the top with HC winning it on RPI merit and going on to the NCAAs. That year, BU (22-9 and RPI 79) was not tabbed by the NIT as an at-large entry.

    #4973

    lehigh90
    Participant

    If Lehigh ties for first place in the standings and loses out on home court due to RPI, the blame has to be placed upon the AD and coaching staff who put together this soft schedule. Looking back, Lehigh played 4 legitimate out of conference opponents (Michigan St, Iowa St, St. John’s, Wagner), and lost 3 of them. If you look at the schedule (I know hindsight 20/20, but everyone knew it was soft before the season started), they played the 3 worst teams in the NE Conf (Bryant, St Francis PA, FDU), 2nd worst in the Metro (St. Peter’s), 2nd worst in the Mid-Eastern (MDES), a bottom half Ivy team and lost (Cornell), the 2nd worst team in the A-10 (Fordham), a middle of the road NE Conf (Quinnipiac), and a strong NE Conf (Wagner). Then, 3 softies in the tournament (W&M, Liberty, EKU). And, D3, Arcadia. So, 4 legit games out of conference. In conference (not that it matters for this discussion, and it is out of their control), they played 4 quality opponents (Bucknell, American, Holy Cross, Lafayette) and 3 more cupcakes (Colgate, Army, Navy), obviously twice each. The strength of schedule must be pretty dismal at this point. The overall schedule hurts them for NCAA (losing out on RPI to Bucknell), NIT (RPI and strength of schedule too weak), and the other potential year end tournies if they still exist (CBI, etc) (RPI and strength of schedule, again).

    #4974

    LU65
    Participant

    If only Sagarin and Pomeroy rankings were used. Ha, no such luck!

    Team / Sagarin / Pomeroy
    LU / 93 / 83
    BU / 110 / 103
    AU / 178 / 164

    #4975
    StablerBum
    StablerBum
    Participant

    I couldn’t agree more ’90. I would also add that the Wagner contract dates back a few years now, before they hired Hurley and he turned the program around. That is a traditionally poor program and it is 100% luck that they are now in the RPI top 100. When that contract was signed Wagner was likely a 200+ RPI school.

    According to RPI forecast (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Lehigh.html), Lehigh has the 325 most difficult OOC schedule in the country. Our actual Strength of Schedule will be helped by PL play (that says quite a bit right there…) and we will likely finish in the 305-310 range for overall S.O.S. Again, that number is out of 344.

    The problem isn’t at the top. I think that 3 garauntee games a year is fine. The problem is the middle. LU traditionally plays either BCS teams, or absolute bottom of the barrel NEC, MEAC, and MAAC teams. I think that the department needs to get creative, especially for next year. Why not schedule 1 more BCS garauntee game, and immediately turn around and split that money amongst 2 decent mid majors and try to get them to come to Stabler? Keeps the budget balanced, gives a chance to get quality home games (that might interest fans), and raises the S.O.S.

    Lastly, I think there is a chance that Lehigh may host a 3 game pre-season weekend like we played in at Liberty and like Bucknell hosted itself this year. Bucknell is in a 3 year agreement with CBE and hosted in its second year, and now Lehigh would be entering the second year of a presumed three year agreement and I am hoping may be in line to host this coming season. Just a thought.

    • This reply was modified 8 years, 9 months ago by StablerBum StablerBum.
    #4976
    Bison137
    Bison137
    Participant

    Answering LU65’s question above, if LU and AU go 2-0 this week and if BU goes 1-1, the final RPI’s, according to RPIforecast will look something like this:

    89 Bucknell
    107 Lehigh
    123 American

    This will change a bit depending on how the three teams’ ooc opponents do this week, but it won’t change enough for LU to catch BU (or for AU to catch LU).

    The rankings of the three teams in ooc strength of schedule:

    140 Bucknell
    324 American
    325 Lehigh

    Bucknell had a pretty tough ooc schedule with the exception of two games (St. Francis and Binghamton). Had those two games been against decent teams, the ranking might have been close to 100.

    As for LU65’s other question, I don’t think there is any chance of LU getting an NIT bid. They likely have a good chance to get a bid to the CIT or CBI – if they want to extend their season to play in one of those.

    • This reply was modified 8 years, 9 months ago by Bison137 Bison137.
    #4977
    van
    van
    Participant

    Just imagine the RPI if they had not blown the lead against St Johns!

    #4979
    Bison137
    Bison137
    Participant

    Beating St. Johns would have a marginal effect on the RPI. No more effect than a win over Colgate or Navy.

    • This reply was modified 8 years, 9 months ago by Bison137 Bison137.
    #4981

    TMH
    Participant

    I haven’t done the research but who gets the top seed if Lehigh goes 2-0, Americna beats Bucknell and loses it’s final game. Wouldn’t that turn the situation from a 3 team tie to a 2 team tie and introduce a new tie-breaker of common opponents outside the conference. I suppose I have too much time on my hands :-).

    #4983
    Bison137
    Bison137
    Participant

    If BU and LU tie, it is still the exact same tiebreaker since the two lost to the same teams. Thus BU would still prevail.

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