December 18, 2013 at 5:28 pm #12707
We await release
KenPom Rankings and Forecast
Quinnipiac (6-3) MAAC
Lehigh (6-5) PL
LU wins 74-73 (51% chance)
The Bobcats’ three losses were to LaSalle (by 6), Boston U. (by 3), and Rider (by 12). They are coming off a strong pre-exam road win over the Catamounts of Vermont 80-67 – the same Vermont team that took Duke to the limit before falling by one. Q’s other win of note was recorded at home against Albany. Like us, they have piled up their W’s against the sub 200 competition.
Quinnipiac will most likely start a seasoned lineup of 1 graduate student, 2 seniors and 2 juniors. Besides experience, they excel in the one other area. That would be: rebounding. Their top three are: Azotam (6’7” and 11.0 rpg), followed closely by Hearst (6’4” and 9.6 rpg) and Drame (6’9” and 7.8 prg). Just what we didn’t need to hear! Together, the three for over half the team’s 47.1 rpg. To put that number into perspective, consider our best effort was 36 boards against Texas Southern. LU’s per game average of 31.7 is 15 fewer boards/game than Q. In fact, the Bobcats are the 8th best Offensive rebounding team in the nation pulling down 41.7% of the possible boards on the offensive end. Further proof – if needed – of their dominance on the glass is their “points in the paint” totals. Last time out it was 47, the game before that 32. They dominate their foes in “second chance points,” as well. Over the last three games, they raked-up 42 put-back pts. For comparison, we tallied 21 over our last three. Their work on the defensive boards is noteworthy, too, at 24.5%. That’s good for 11th best in the nation. Kempton, Chuku and Company will be tested like never before. Well, not since the Pitt game anyway. Makes you wonder what Pomeroy sees that I don’t. Maybe it’s our win over Rider and the advantage of playing at home before 500 friends and family. Whatever it is, let’s hope he’s right.
A year ago, LUHoops00 and I had the pleasure of attending the Q/LU game up in Hamden, Conn. CJ, Gabe, and Holden poured in 55 of our 77 points to offset our woes in rebounding the ball (32 to 40) in what turned out to be thrilling 11 point win for the Mountain Hawks. I would encourage everyone in the metro NY/metro Boston area to get to what I hope is a rematch of this contest next year in Hamden. The TD Bank Sports Center is reason enough to go.December 18, 2013 at 8:38 pm #12709
4 Factors preview:
This looks like a tough matchup on paper. They have the HUGE edge in rebounding as 65 highlighted, but also have significant edges in free throw rate and turnover percentage.December 19, 2013 at 5:07 pm #12729December 19, 2013 at 8:23 pm #12734
And now Quinnipiac’s note are up too:December 20, 2013 at 3:38 pm #12746
Someone once said, “There’s no substitute for experience.” With that in mind and the numbers below, what are your expectations going into tomorrow night’s game vs. the Bobcats? Do we see the return of AD and/or SC? Does either get the start? Do we go big? Realizing that only 17.6% of Q’s points come from beyond the arc (ranked 331st in the nation) and 56.2% come inside. Do we play and commit to a 2-3 zone? Based on their experience, do JG and CB get increased minutes?
Q’s probable starting 5:
Drame (6’9” Jr.)*
Azotom (6’7”, Sr.)*
Hearst (6’4” Jr.)*
S. Shannon (6’1” Sr.)
U. Shannon (5’11” Gr. Std.)
* Combined front court experience: 247 games
Combined front court experience of TK, SW, and JC: 33 gamesDecember 20, 2013 at 5:22 pm #12748
I’m not optimistic about seeing AD. Last real update I saw indicated that they still didn’t know exactly what was wrong. And I saw a practice photo yesterday, and AD was wearing a boot. Not encouraging.
Pretty sure that CB is back, and SC might be or will be soon.
I’m eager to see how QU does their thing. Their rebounding margin is amazing to me, when you see their size. I don’t know enough to weigh in on a specific D to play – but I think we should do whatever it takes to keep them off the offensive glass. They don’t appear to shoot really well, but get a LOT of ORs and 2nd chance points.December 21, 2013 at 12:58 pm #12752
Excited to watch this game, see how a young team handles a long layoff and the anticipation of going home to their families for the first time since august.
Watched Q vs BU game and Q just obliterated them on the glass, we have more size then BU but obviously we’ve not been able to be a force on the glass yet, but hopefully the improvements we’ve seen can continue for LU. Should be a good game, interested to see how our young bigs respond to the challenge, because you know all week the staff has just stuffed Q rebounding stats down their throats…December 21, 2013 at 7:43 pm #12753
If I’m QU, tonight’s game plan based on any kind of scouting report on our season to date is; pack it in, surround, contain, and frustrate TK. Don’t allow Lehigh more than one shot and force them to win from outside or on the break. I think we’ll see this throughout the year until we start rebounding as a team or consistently shoot the lights out. This pretty much parrots what everyone else here has been saying for weeks. QUINNIPIAC looks like a quality opponent so this should be a good barometer. Hopefully tonight we finally get it done. Due to students on break and last minute shopping, good seats are no doubt still available. See ya there…….?December 21, 2013 at 10:43 pm #12754
While waiting for tonight’s game to begin, here are a couple of shockers you may not have known about.
Marist 69 – Bucknell 51
Marist entered the contest with a 1-9 record and a KenPom ranking of 281. When the dust settled, the Red Fox ranking soared to 241 while the Bison tumbled from 90 to 117. To Marist’s credit, however, 6 of their 9 losses were to Top 100 teams.
Boston U. 83 – Maryland 77
http://www.sentinelandenterprise.com/breakingnews/ci_24773002/boston-university-basketball-team-shocks-marylandDecember 21, 2013 at 11:07 pm #12755
CoBL weighs in, last-minute. No real news here – their take sounds a lot like ours:December 21, 2013 at 11:15 pm #12756
Pretty cool to see that BU win over the Terps!!December 22, 2013 at 3:12 am #12757
Tonight’s headline: Tremendous defensive effort against The Gang Who Couldn’t Shoot Straight. Held Q to their season average in rebounds, but Lehigh made it a tough physical go to get there. We insisted on establishing inside game early then lit it up in the second half on good ball movement leading to open looks. Final score (69-58) remarkable considering first half score ended 22-15. MM in foul trouble early in first half (played just 6 min). MS filled in credibly for balance of the half. One concern was MS knee injury. Returned after halftime with brace and a limp. 11 point final margin was not indicative of how Lehigh took control in the second half, leading by 22 at one point.
Balanced scoring, impressive bench production, best energy of the games I’ve seen. All in all an impressive win against what seemed to be a tough opponent, coming into the night. Only caveat; Q shot 33% overall and went 0-16 from 3. I didn’t know that was possible. Great defense or that bad a shooting night? If anyone else attended I’d like to hear your opinion.
PS: BU over Terps a big surprise, but Bison blow out loss to Marist a real shocker to me.December 22, 2013 at 5:06 am #12758
Really ugly game early — poor shooting, turnovers galore.
Simelton did nice job in first half when MM had foul trouble.
Despite getting only four ORs, we were not too bad on defensive side … against tough rebounding team.
I missed early fourth Q — watching on computer — but it was clear we had more talent and depth. Almost a breakout game for CB. These guys are playing like a real team — very impressive! Lots of fun guys to watch.
Can’t wait to see league play start!December 22, 2013 at 3:02 pm #12759
Some random thoughts and observations…………….
Walk-on Cole Renninger, appearing in his 6th collegiate game, was tagged with his first PF. Seconds later, after a missed FT, he wasn’t to be denied. He netted his first career rebound. All this, as in other game appearances, took place in the last minute of play. Congrats Cole!
Attendance: a suspect 1,126. Hey, it’s better than the suspect 737 attending the LIU/Brooklyn game.
Find the open man and good things happen. Once again, another win (that’s 5 this year) after posting an A/FGMade number of greater than 67%. Last night 19 of 26 or 73%. AP posts 6 of the 19.
Q could never recover. The Bobcats went 0 for 11 in the first 6 minutes and 0 for 8 from deep in the first half. About the only thing they did right was rebound the ball with 43. And, that’s 3 below their per game average of 46.
While still tipping and not grabbing rebounds – at least it appears that way to me – you had to be pleased with the energy on display last night under the boards. TK got 7 as opposed to TK getting 7 – if you know what I mean. There was fight in the guy. Same goes for JC and CB.
JC’s and MM’s threes (5 for 5) remove all doubt of a Quinnipiac comeback.
We are 6 and 0 on home and neutral courts this year. Next two on the road @ Bryant and Colgate.
We’ve lost the rebounding battle in 10 of our 12 starts. We lost it again last night but escaped with the win due to some phenomenal (59.3%) 2nd half shooting on our part. Win the battle on the boards and there’s a good chance this team will win the game. At least that’s what appears to be happening this year as we’re 2-0 in games we win the majority of boards as we did against Rider and Sacred Heart.
Can’t remember when CB made an appearance before JG. Must be doing something right in practice. Took advantage of the time with 9 points and 4 boards in 12 minutes. He came into the game with a season total of just 14 points over 6 game appearances.December 22, 2013 at 9:42 pm #12760
Really big win heading into break, no doubt about it, I was scared of this one with young team coming off long layoff and flying home to their families the next day. Credit to staff and leadership, because we were ready to play. Agree with 65, we lost rebounding but the fight and determination is so much higher then it was out of gate this year. Our young guys are battling and their compete level is much higher then it was in November, really happy about that. Good balance again with ton of guys scoring 9+ points, and MS had nice stretch in half 1 filling in for foul plagued MM. TK had some nice post moves early, and JC got 3 ball working late. AP had a really nice game, with some triples, some drives, and I think 6 assists. CB had productive minutes, really pleasant surprise.
It is just amazing to me year one post the big 3 era and we’re rolling here in non-conference play late. I think we our going to contend for PL championship again, remarkable, love the young guys on this team and MM and CS have been consistent each night.
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