Sagarin

This topic contains 2 replies, has 1 voice, and was last updated by  LU65 9 years, 10 months ago.

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  • #3110

    LU65
    Participant

    Sagarin nails the AU-LU game and is off by just one point in the Army-CU game.

    Game One Lines vs. Actuals

    HC by 1 over LC………..HC by 5
    BU by 12 1/2 over Navy………BU by 7
    Army by 8 over CU………..Army by 7
    AU by 7 over LU………..AU by 7

    Game 2 Lines

    LU -14 1/2 over Navy
    AU -2 over BU
    Army -9 1/2 over HC
    LC -12 1/2 over CU

    #3111
    Bison137
    Bison137
    Participant

    The lines shown above are correct using the basic Sagarin model – which gives a fair amount of weight to wins and losses. However, that is not the version Sagarin himself would use to set lines or predict games, since he feels another of his models – the "predictor" model – is "the best single PREDICTOR of future games."

    Using his predictor model, Sagarin has the following spreads:

    BU over AU by 0.5 pts
    LU over Navy by 13.5 pts
    Army over HC by 7.5 pts
    LC over CU by 13 pts

    None of his models, however, factor in injuries – so HC is no doubt underrated, having played a number of games without Keister and Beans, who are both back in the starting lineup now. They are still missing RJ Evans however.

    Pomeroy’s projections were even better than Sagarin’s the first week, and he has the following lines:

    AU over BU by 1 pt
    LU over Navy by 12 pts
    Army over HC by 3 pts
    LC over CU by 14 pts

    #3138

    LU65
    Participant

    For Wednesday, 1/19/11………..

    Sagarin:

    LU – 10 @ CU
    HC -1 @ N
    LC + 16 1/2 @ BU
    A + 8 1/2 @ AU

    Pomeroy’s Score and Chances of Winning:

    LU over CU 78-67 (85%)
    HC over N 68-67 (56%)
    BU over LC 77-61 (93%)
    AU over A 70-62 (19%)

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