The lines shown above are correct using the basic Sagarin model – which gives a fair amount of weight to wins and losses. However, that is not the version Sagarin himself would use to set lines or predict games, since he feels another of his models – the "predictor" model – is "the best single PREDICTOR of future games."
Using his predictor model, Sagarin has the following spreads:
BU over AU by 0.5 pts
LU over Navy by 13.5 pts
Army over HC by 7.5 pts
LC over CU by 13 pts
None of his models, however, factor in injuries – so HC is no doubt underrated, having played a number of games without Keister and Beans, who are both back in the starting lineup now. They are still missing RJ Evans however.
Pomeroy’s projections were even better than Sagarin’s the first week, and he has the following lines:
AU over BU by 1 pt
LU over Navy by 12 pts
Army over HC by 3 pts
LC over CU by 14 pts