Sagarin

This topic contains 3 replies, has 1 voice, and was last updated by  LU65 9 years, 12 months ago.

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  • #1217

    LU65
    Participant

    While there’s general agreement that RPI rankings do not mean much this early in the season, how about the Sagarin numbers we see posted online and in the USA Today? Too early to view? Wait until January? Or, comparatively speaking, they’re a good judge of the teams’ relative strengths no matter the date? In short, when does Sagarin become relevant? His "Elo Chess" and "Predictor" numbers are "Greek to Me" and probably to others, as well. Your thoughts.

    Sagarin (as of 11/19/09) … 347 D-I schools

    School / Ranking / Record / SOS

    HC / 167 / 0-2 / 143
    AU / 186 / 0-3 / 261
    BU / 217 / 2-2 / 183
    LU / 243 / 1-2 / 157
    N / 245 / 1-1 / 240
    CU / 292 / 0-2 / 56
    LC / 295 / 1-1 / 243
    A / 307 / 1-1 / 254

    #1218
    Bison137
    Bison137
    Participant

    Sagarin is completely meaningless at this point. He starts the year with a three-year weighted average – with absolutely no subjectivity of how a given team will be this year. As teams play games, a bit of weight is given to each game – with a little less weight given to the historic average. After the better part of a month, full weight is given to this year’s games – when the teams are all "well connected" in Sagarin’s terminology. The fact that most of the weight is currently given to the three-year average is why American is still ranked relatively high, despite their bad start and the fact that they graduated their entire team.

    As for his ELO chess method, that is somewhat similar to the RPI – where only winning and losing matters. A win by one or a win by 50 are equal. The "predictor" model looks solely at margins of victory/defeat. The published number is the average of the two.

    #1219

    LU65
    Participant

    Thanks, Bison137.

    Glad to see read of your team’s early successes and the effort put forth by HC in their one-point loss to St. Joe’s. Expecting AU (vs. Fla. Atlantic), CU (vs. St. Francis – NY), and HC (vs. Loyola – IL) to break into the Win column their next time out.

    How do you view the PL this year? A three team race? Any dark horses?

    #1220

    LU65
    Participant

    Make that HC’s "2" point loss to St. Joe’s.

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