December 2, 2013 at 10:23 pm #12499
Measuring Stick Game
In this the year of the love fest between the NEC and PL, it interesting to note the Red Flash has played five games that should be of great interest to Lehigh – four out of the PL and one from the A10. I give you their respective outcomes:
SFU loss to Fordham by 20
SFU beat Navy by 3 (their only win at home thus far this year)
SFU loss to Bucknell by 18
SFU lost to Colgate by 17
SFU lost to AU by 32
KenPom would agree (77% chance), calling it a Lehigh win by 7 (66-59).
LU (3-5) ranked 202nd
SUF (1-6) ranked 342…only 9 teams ranked lower in D-I basketball
While Mr. Pomeroy hit our output number on the head (76) in our win over Sacred Heart, I think he’s under estimating our ability to put up some points on Wednesday night by giving 66 in a 7 point win over the Red Flash. When SFU loses, they tend to lose big, as Colgate, American and Bucknell can attest. Colgate rung up 81, American 75 and Bucknell 72 in their lop-sided meetings. I would hope LU could do similar.
By all accounts, this should be a feel-good win for the Mountain Hawks. We should dominate the boards for a change against the “height challenged” (rank 349 out of 351) Red Flash with a roster of only three standing 6’6” or taller. SFU has been out-rebounded in each of their last five games – all loses – by an average of 9 boards a game. In their most recent outing, American embarrassed them on the boards 42 to 20. If TK and Co. can’t get it done on Wednesday night, I’m not sure they ever will.
SFU’s troubles don’t end with rebounding. They tend to have difficulty in scoring the ball, as well – even unguarded from a distance of 15’ (60.2 FT%). From the field they’re a sub .300 team shooting the long ball and only slightly north of .400 on the 2-point shot.
While there’s no telling who Coach Krimmel will run out there to start the game (10 players saw “double-digit” minutes in their last game) for the Red Flash, you can bet #2 Harmon and #15 Brown will be among the group. Each averages 10+ ppg with Brown being the key rebounding threat (8.3rpg). I’ll be anxious to read the Game Notes when published.December 3, 2013 at 12:44 am #12501
In my years following high school and college sports I’ve seem a lot of games like this get out of sorts. The worst thing a favored team can do is under estimate a home team. Particularly a very young favored team. A couple of cheap fouls to key people, regionally partisan officials, home team Harry gets hot from 3 late, and Old Man Mo puts vise grips on your….. There is no rational reason for this team to be over confident, but games like this still make me paranoid. A determined, aggressive, controlled, killer instinct type win would warm the cockles of my heart.
December 3, 2013 at 5:01 pm #12510
- This reply was modified 6 years, 11 months ago by jimk72.
I agree you can’t take anyone for granted especially at home, but St Francis is pretty soft. Even for a young, inconsistent Lehigh team, I would pencil in a 15 point win. The way to handle these games is to get your 20 point cushion in the first half and coast home.December 3, 2013 at 8:49 pm #12515
The #1 thing to watch in this game is intensity. I want to see if our forecourt especially plays with a sense of purpose again, both offensively and defensively.
Interesting fact. After 8 games, only 2 players have double digit assists. When we play really well, we average 16/18 assists/gameDecember 3, 2013 at 10:13 pm #12521
We’re 2-0 in games this year where our A/FGM is .600 or greater. Sharing the ball has always been a Reed dictate and a hallmark of our winning squads. Our PGs are off to a good start this year with A/TO numbers of 2.30 (MM) and 1.57 (CS), respectively. Anxious to watch Simelton(.714) and to a lesser extent Price (1.33) grow in this area.December 3, 2013 at 11:05 pm #12523
Lehigh Game Notes
Watch the game live and for free on NEC Front Row. Lafayette plays Wagner tonight (Tuesday, 12/3) should anyone be interested.December 3, 2013 at 11:11 pm #12524
Kempton has had a few big games, and Chuku had his big breakout against Sacred Heart. Obviously I’d like to see those guys build on those performances but it would also be nice to see a big game from Price since he has been quiet recently, or a breakout from Simelton. Shane has been showing steady improvement and I hope that continues.
The lack of updates on AD is strange to me. Sad to see him miss such a big chunk (and counting) of his senior year. The obvious plus side being that as of now this team is only losing one contributor next season.December 3, 2013 at 11:36 pm #12525
The guy I would like to see improve his assist #s is TK. The film is in now. It is evident that he has advanced post moves. Coach Reed knows it and has been getting the ball in low to him early and often. Sacred Heart collapsed a lot on him though, leaving men open on the perimeter. I can’t recall the ball ever coming out. (Disclaimer:There are times I can’t recall my last name :-))December 4, 2013 at 8:11 pm #12537
From the world of “anything is possible,” let’s not overlook what Fairleigh Dickenson University (FDU) – ranked 9th in the NEC (one up from SFU) and 349th overall 10 days ago – did to both Rutgers and Seton Hall in the past 7 days. They won ‘em both. Can’t help but think the message was delivered by both coaches going into tonight’s contest.
Here’s a quick look back at our OOC program this year. Two sets of numbers – the first is how the team was ranked at the end of last year followed by their present day group rankings. Stats are from Pomeroy. Again it shows our design of playing 2 top flight (Top 100) teams, a number of middle of the road and thereby competitive/but winnable games, and a couple of highly winnable games. Or, something along the lines of – but not quite – the 1/3, 1/3, and 1/3 mix of talent many have spoke of in other threads. The average Pomeroy ranking of our 13 OOC opponents going into play was 188. Not bad….in fact, probably highly satisfactory. Today, the 13 – many off to poor starts – average 194.
Top 100 Teams: 2 / 2
101-220 Teams: 9 / 5
221 – 351 Teams: 2 / 6
That said, I completely understand and agree with the need/desire to schedule A10/Colonial AA Conference teams the likes of LaSalle, St. Joe’s, Drexel, and Delaware for all the reasons given. But, until that happens at least be glad we picked up Brant (4-2, Pomeroy #129, and atop the NEC) and Quinnipiac (4-2, Pomeroy #147, and atop the MEAA). Both sit some 60-80 spots ahead of us in national polls and promise to be all this young team of ours can handle.December 4, 2013 at 10:02 pm #12538
SFU’s notes are up now:December 5, 2013 at 2:22 am #12544
Long bus ride, finals coming up, goofy weather, bad shooting night. Escape. The only statistic you want them to remember from this one is 57-50.December 5, 2013 at 3:25 am #12545
Well said jimk, only other thing I will emphasize is a road win is never a bad thing, especially for a young team. Survive and advance, on to the next one.December 5, 2013 at 6:41 am #12546
With TK’s double-double tonight, I think that makes three on the year, with JC and MM also having them.
Anyone know when last time there were three players in one year to get double-doubles?
Seems like this year’s team has four or five who could get them.December 5, 2013 at 1:54 pm #12547
Watched the game and some numbers/performances that stood out in my mind besides what has been said already:
PFs: CS and AP played 78 combined and took “0” fouls. Pick up early fouls (SW with 3 long before the half) and you’re an after-thought not to mention the fact that you put your coach and team in a tough spot when traveling with an 3 man bench (didn’t include our two walk-ons). Jesse fouled-out to conclude a forgettable 0-fer night shooting with one defensive rebound.
Defense: AP had 4 of the team’s 5 steals and 2 of the team’s 4 blocks. He doesn’t start but gets 36 minutes. Result: 12 points and 3 boards. Enough said. He’ll start the next game. Play “D” and you’ll get playing time. We have plenty would can score the ball in TK, MM and CS.
Points in the Paint: How do explain SFU’s 26 number? That’s 26 of their 50 points scored on put backs by a team with no one taller than 6’6”. SFU doubles us on Offensive rebounds. Sure TK had a total of 15 (O and D) for the game but how many came to him. The drive and energy, while a bit better, is still not where it needs to be.
MS was invisible except for one turnover in 6 minutes.
When do we see: AD, SC, CB, and DC? How ready will any of them be to help come January 2nd?
Gotta hand it to KenPomeroy. He hit the number on the head again. He said “7” and we won by seven.December 5, 2013 at 2:22 pm #12548
I agree that we just put this one behind us and move on. However, I can’t resist beating the dead horse. We got killed on the glass by one of the worst rebounding teams in D1. TK did his part, but somebody else has GOT to contribute. And looking over NCAA stats, I’m lead to believe that it’s GOT to be an issue with fundamentals – boxing out, etc. Our number of total rebounds isn’t good, but our opponents rebounding numbers are appalling. Bucky serves as a good reference here. Similar overall team rebounding numbers, but they prevent opponents from getting a ton. Less missed shots maybe? I dunno. They’re actually very high in the rankings of opponents rebounding totals – #19 in D1 as of this morning.
I missed about the first 4 minutes of the game, and by the time I got on JC was on the bench. I’m assuming he picked up a couple of VERY quick fouls? I know he got his 3rd almost immediately after returning to the floor. If he’s on the bench for foul trouble, somebody else has GOT to hit the glass. And they all need to get into rebounding position and box out. Could have use CB last night, I guess.
In the situation we were in, with JC foul trouble, a short bench, and getting murdered on the glass – would you not have expected to see more JG? I think I must be missing something that is a serious flaw in his game, because I would have had him on the floor a LOT last night. He still has trouble catching, but he appears to be capable on defense and on the glass, to my untrained eye.
@65 – totally with you on the KenPom thing. Amazing how accurate those projections have been this year.
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