Semifinal Game – American University

[LU65Participant]

Game Notes are up!

LU version:
http://www.lehighsports.com/assets/spor … 030710.pdf

AU version:
http://www.aueagles.com/sports/m-baskbl … s/20100301

The Lines and Chance of Winning

Sagarin

LU ranked #207
AU ranked # 295
LU – 11

Pomeroy

Gives LU a 87% chance of winning
Predicted Score: 75-63

Offensive Effeciency
LU 104.5 (128th ranked)
AU 92.9 (290th ranked)

Defensive Efficiency
LU 106.4 (263rd ranked)
AU 105.4 (241st ranked)

Tempo
LU 70.2 (52nd ranked)
AU 63.8 (305th ranked)

Notes:

ADJUSTED OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY (347 D-I Teams) – another Pomeroy report…. Raw offensive efficiency is points scored per 100 offensive possessions. The adjusted version adjusts for the quality of opposing defenses, the site of each game, and when each game was played (recent games get more weight). Defensive efficiency is points allowed per 100 defensive possessions, adjusted for the same things.

ADJUSTED TEMPO – another Pomeroy report…………. We can estimate possessions very well from box score stats by using this formula: FGA-OR+TO+0.475xFTA. For each team, possessions are counted for the team and their opponents, and then averaged. A team’s average tempo is total possessions divided by minutes. This value is then adjusted for schedule, considering the preferred pace of each opponent and when each game was played.

Can LU beat another team 3X in one year? We did it last week against Army and may have a chance to do it again on Friday should both Holy Cross and the Mountain Hawks advance tomorrow. Can’t say I know of another such example.

Go Lehigh!

[hawktalkerParticipant]

Zahir Carrington has to have a big game. He was the lead scorer in Lehigh’s two earlier wins over American this year.
Lehigh has let Moldoveanu get his 24 points in both of those games but has contained Lumpkins, who’s American’s hottest player right now. Had 29 and 15 in the quarterfinal OT win over Navy

[MtnhwkfanParticipant]

Hawktalker is correct. The key to beating American is stopping their 4 and 5 men. Here are the scoring statistics for leading scorers of both teams in their first two meetings.

1/9 2/6 Ave
CJ 10 19 18.8
Zahir 18 20 10.6
Hall 17 18 11.6
Knutsen 10 10 9.9

Vlad 24 24 18.9
Lumpkins 14 4 12.9
Hendra 13 DNP 9.9

Vlad will be pulling Zahir out to the perimeter, while Lumpkins is posting up Knutsen down low. I think Knutsen will have more than his hands full. Lumpkins was not a factor in the second Lehigh game due to foul trouble.

For Lehigh’s offense however, our top four were remarkably consistent in the first two games. While we could have a tough time stopping American’s big two, they are going to have a bigger problem stopping our big three.

GO LEHIGH – Beat American!

[MtnhwkfanParticipant]

For those who may not have seen it, here is a link to the American University Basketball blog. Excellent write-up with interesting comment regarding American University buying out the student section, while Lehigh did not leaving the students needing to pay for their tickets. Joe Sterritt, what’s up with that??

http://www.auhoops.com/2010/03/9-games-to-national-championship-and.html#more

[LU65Participant]

As a firm believer in the old adage, "If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it" or simply, it is a mistake to try to improve something that works…….I’m looking for Dr. Reed and Company implement and execute a game plan similar to the one that worked so well in their two wins over AU earlier in the year.
If AU throws up a curve (doubtful based on what has worked for them all year), I’m confident we can and will make the proper adjustments. The results of our earlier games:

Victories
LU 2
AU 0
Rebounds
LU 75
AU 66
Points in the Paint
LU 74
AU 58
Fast Break Points
LU 18
AU 5
Points off Turnovers
LU 27
AU 13
Turnovers
LU 17
AU 25
Free Throw Attempts
LU 61
AU 23

The keys to winning this game, in my humble opinion, will be:

On "D"……

a. limit the touches – and thereby points – that both Vlad Moldoveanu and Steven Lumpkins get. Surely, easier said than done. One way, of course, would be to send them to the bench with foul trouble. I do see our guards, therefore, going to the hoop early and often in hopes of drawing contact and getting to the line where they were a combined 34 for 44 in free throw attempts in games 1 and 2.

b. apply selective 3 pt. defensive pressure on #23 junior guard, Nick Hendra – the only AU player of note, other than Vlad, that is capable of hurting you from long range. Yet, Nick has struggled of late going just 6 of 24 from deep in his last four outings – somewhat matching the team’s ineffectiveness (14 of 61) over that same stretch of games.

On "O" ……

a. dictate the tempo of the game and not be lulled to sleep by what may be the plodding offensive sets of AU – taking a page out of the Army playbook from last week.

b. Carrington and Knutson must each stay out of foul trouble. Losing one or both could spell defeat were Vlad and Lumpkins to stay clean. Adams (perhaps still under the weather from that hit to the head), Mineri, Greiner, and Hamilton are no match against Vlad and Lumpkins.

c. have either CJ, Hall, Buchberger or Ojo step-up with a big effort from outside – if and when needed. It takes only four "3’s" to match six of Lumpkins "2’s."

Who’s headed to Stabler tonight?

[norcalfanParticipant]

Well let’s just see who shows up in the game.
The way I see it, Lehigh wins either way. They get to play in Madison Square Gardens if they lose. If they win the PL Tournament, they may or may not have a play in game (at least that’s what the BU site says) and they play in Ohio. This is a tough league and it can be anybody’s game. HC played a tough game today. It does not matter what your record is, it depends on your game. If LU prevails, LC has fans. What is up with the administration? Good luck to all the teams.

[LU65Participant]

LU fans are taking it one game at a time, I assure you. Right now all that matters is AU. Glad to see LC put down HC this afternoon. Were LU and LC to clash for the title at Stabler on Friday it would be some show. Sure ESPN is hoping for it, as well.

As for the NIT, should LU not make it to the NCAAs, there no assure of a Madison Square Garden appearance. Like the NCAAs play begins at Regional sites.

With regard to the NCAA Play-In Game, there is hope LU (RPI 159) – should they go all the way this week -may avoid a trip to Dayton on the 16th. Here’s why………….

I would think Jackson State (RPI 192) out of the SW Athletic Conference is a sure bet to be one of the teams involved in the Dayton prelim if they go on to win their conference tournament slated to begin on Wednesday. If not them than one of the other teams in the SW – all of whom carry a RPI of 195 or lower.

The Big South just wrapped up their tournament and the winner was Winthrop (RPI 158). Possible Play-In candidate?

The Southland Conference gets underway on Tuesday and their top seed is S.F. Austin (RPI 162). The remainder of the field (teams LU will be pulling for) is 200 or worse.

The MEAC tourney begins on Monday where their top seed is Morgan State (RPI 105). All the others are 223 and worse – teams LU would like to see advance.

As for the NE Conference, top-seeded Quinnipiac (RPI 137) just knocked-off Rober Morris this afternoon in one semi. The other semi pits Mt. St. Mary’s (RPI 172) vs. LIU (RPI 243). You might say LU is rooting for the winner of that game to take the title away from Quinnipiac. Were it to come down to Q or LU, you could argue that since LU beat Q, Q should go.

So, it’s still a crap-shoot as to who will be invited to Dayton. All LU need do is win and win again and let the chips fall where they may. If fair to say that should LC (RPI 213) or AU (RPI 295) win the PL title they would be tabbed to go to Dayton.

[norcalfanParticipant]

Lu65,

Thanks for the clarification. I guess some of the fans are a little confused:) I agree one game at a time. LU seniors would really like to go out on top.

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