December 18, 2009 at 9:38 pm #1369December 18, 2009 at 10:28 pm #1370
By the numbers……..
Team / Ranking / SOS / Rating / Line
LU / 233 / 236 / 67.74 / LU +8
SJU / 162 / 20 / 73.11 / SJU -8
Real Time RPI
Team / RPI / Game Score Predictor
LU / 209 / 70
SJU / 114 / 73
Team / Ranking / SOS
LU / 236 / 240
SJU / 164 / 23
You can’t quibble too much about the teams’ SOS numbers, even though LU did play and lose to Dayton (RPI 20) and Richmond (RPI 35). SJU, on the other hand, has seen a diet of top-notch contenders headed by Perdue (RPI 6), Villanova (RPI 12), and Cornell (RPI 22). In our one comparable matchup, LU loss to Rider by 15 (86-71) while SJU loss by 8 (81-73).December 20, 2009 at 4:23 pm #1383
PIP……….Points in the Paint
A key to victory? Maybe.
Simply put, every opponent SJU has faced this year – all 9 of them – has out-scored the Hawks in the lane. In SJU’s six losses, the margin was by 15 (34 to 19 pts.); in their three wins the margin was by 7 (33 to 26 pts).
Can some combination of – what appears on paper to be – our deeper front court line of:
Greiner (7.0 ppg)
Knutson (6.6 ppg)
Carrington (6.5 ppg)
Mineri (6.0 ppg)
Hamilton (5.3 ppg)
Safstrom (0.8 ppg)
out-dual SJU’s talented duo of:
Bucknell transfer O’Brien (5.0ppg)
with Irwin (4.7 ppg), Rogers (0.5 ppg), Baptiste (1.8 ppg), and Adebayo (1.0 ppg) coming off the bench?
If seems doable to me. One small concern, however, is that neither Adams, Mineri, or Hamilton saw a minute of action in our win over Dartmouth. Let’s just hope it was a game-time coach’s decision to rest these players and not a case of injuries. If the latter, what was a case of superior depth is no longer so.December 20, 2009 at 11:13 pm #1386
David and Goliath (RPI numbers)
SJU is ranked #111 has played a SOS ranked 7th toughest in the nation
Lehigh ranked #203 has played a SOS ranked 210th in the nation. Only 137 weaker schedules.
All three of SJU wins were over teams ranked higher than 228……Drexel (#143), Holy Cross (227), and Boston College (105)
Only one LU win was over a team ranked higher than 321………..Quinnipiac ranked #200
Reasons for hope?
SJU beat Holy Cross by only two points earlier in the year.
LU hung tough – even if it was for only a half with Richmond, ranked #21, and put up 71 points against Dayton, ranked #31.
SJU’s first game following exam break.
LU’s nothing to lose attitude.
Here’s a peak at the Hawk Message Board
http://hawkhoopclub.proboards.com/index … hread=2697
Consensus: Hawks win handilyDecember 21, 2009 at 4:32 pm #1391
Well, LU65, it appears you may have been on to something with the PIP. You said that SJU had been outscored in the paint by every one of their opponents this year, but they gave us a solid beating inside, outscoring us 40-26 in the paint.
The most telling statistics for me were the combo stats for our preseason first team all league tandem of Carrington and Hall. They combined to shoot 5-18 totaling 11 points and 12 turnovers.
This team seems to show a lot of potential, especially with the depth we have been able to demonstrate. At some point however, our starters and marquee guys need to step up while the youth and bench continue to contribute. Hopefully once league play starts, we can get everyone playing to their potential and make a run for the title.December 21, 2009 at 4:59 pm #1392
What was a little troubling was how Lehigh came apart after getting that seven point lead midway through the second. St. Joe’s had a third gear that kicked in and got the win, while our Mountain Hawks just seemed to not have that third gear.
Ojo and Buchburger’s double-digits in scoring, though, were very encouraging. Definitely something to build on. If the team can figure out that it’s not just the Hall/Carrington show anymore, Lehigh remains a dangerous team going into PL play.December 22, 2009 at 1:12 am #1396
It was a game of runs – first 10, then 7, then 11 but the one we couldn’t recover from was SJU’s 15-0 spurt midway thru the second half. This, after we had built up a 7 point lead with 8:47 to go. In the next 4 1/2 minutes of playing time, the Hawks hit seven field goals (one from 3 and a slam dunk thrown in for extra measure) while we missed what had to be an equal number and a couple with open looks. During that stretch we looked listless and to make matters worse we reverted to man coverage after what had been an effective 3-4 minutes of zone play. Even the SJU announcers were surprised at the move. It cost us. But that alone didn’t lose the game. It was reckless ball handling (20 turnovers) and the ineffective shooting by two of our senior co-captains: Hall and Carrington. I’m sure no one feels worse than they do after such an outing but we can’t have our stud center/forward convert only 33% (4 of 12) of his shots from point blank range. And, to top it off he hit two of those 4 made FGs in the first 61 seconds of the game! As for Marquis, going 1 for 6 won’t cut it either. One rebound and 4 assists aren’t Marquis – the preseason player of the year – either. Misery loves company as our 2 guards had their problems, as well. CJ continued his funk connecting on only 2 of 11 attempts. Granted, he scored 10 but we need the majority of his points coming from the field and not the free throw line. Another disappointment on Sunday was Keefer off the bench. It’s hard to throw up an "air ball" from the lane but he did. He looked lost in his 10 minutes on the court going 1 for 4 with 0 boards and 1 turnover. If it weren’t for Buchberger, Knutson and Ojo, combining for 38 points, things could have been worse. As it was, we were in it and could have – should have won the game. Well, maybe. But, Saragin had it about right …. SJU-8. Anyway, the game is behind us and in the long run it means little. Let’s hope a lesson or two was learned. I’d look for the team to come out flying against Marist on Tuesday.
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