November 23, 2013 at 10:43 pm #12342
LU’s Game Notes
Game Time: Monday @ 6:30 pm (ET)
With Houston, Texas Tech, Stanford and Pittsburgh moving onto the Finals of the Legends Classic slated to begin at the Barclays Center on Monday, the other four teams invited to participate in the Classic head to Brooklings, South Dakota to begin play in a two day consolation tournament of their own with opening round games also slated to start on Monday. Each will be anxious to right their respective ship after failing to impress in opening rounds of play (see margins of defeat below). No surprise here considering the present day KenPom rankings shown after each team’s name.
Texas Southern (212): -9 to Texas Tech (127) and -26 to Stanford (38)
Howard (344)L: -32 to Pitt (9) and -13 to Houston (165)
South Dakota State (216): -14 to Texas Tech (127) and will play Stanford (38) on Dec. 1st
Lehigh (186): -14 to Houston (165) and -19 to Pitt (9)
KenPom gives us a 55% chance of winning our first game on Monday against the Tigers of Texas Southern by the score of 75-74. The team from downtown Houston is perhaps the strongest entry from the worst (33rd ranked) conference in D-1 play this year, the SWAC. A look at their expected lineup reveals a team that has both size (6’10” center and two 6’7” forwards) and experience (2 grad students, 2 seniors and 1 junior). Much like Lehigh, they have struggled to rebound the ball (317th ranked), block shots (268th ranked) and create turnovers (340th ranked). The team does, however, score the basketball (81.1 ppg) and shoot the “3” ball well (41.9% and 33rd ranked). A win would send us into a game on Tuesday against the winner of the Howard/South Dakota State game – also being played tomorrow night on the home court of the Jackrabbits. A loss to Texas Southern would mean a follow-up game against the loser of the Howard/SDS game. That contest would also take place on Tuesday.
If given a choice in this game of what appears to be near equals, I would sooner take a strong rebounding effort from our “bigs” over a win. Simply, it’s time they show up!November 23, 2013 at 10:52 pm #12343
Sorry, KenPom: We lose, %80. Until we demonstrate the ability to get ANY rebounds, we lose.November 25, 2013 at 7:03 pm #12385
Really hoping that some of the rebounding issues have been addressed since Pitt. TX Southern is the 276th best rebounding team in the country by total rebounding %. Lehigh is 328. What I’m looking for tonight is a win on the boards. TX Southern’s two best players are forwards who average over 20 each. Aaric Murray was once a big time recruit who is now on his 3rd school (after LaSalle and West Virginia), and is going to be a very tough match-up.
Unfortunately, I don’t see Lehigh coming out on top in this one. I don’t think Kempton and Chuku will be able to keep Murray and Rodriguez off the boards and out of the paint. Not to mention that Murray and Rodriguez can also step out and shoot it (combined 19-50 from 3). I think that is going to be real trouble for Kempton to be able to guard guys on the perimeter. Hope I’m wrong!
Interested to see how the front court minutes break down.
Other things to watch:
Will AP get his first rebound since the Fordham game (when he had 1)?
Mackey has missed his last 9 threes since starting the season 7-10 against Minn and Rider. Can he find his outside stroke?November 25, 2013 at 7:38 pm #12387
I think you are right about TK struggling to guard on the perimeter. A big concern for me is TK getting cheap fouls on the perimeter which put him on the bench. If you eliminate the Rider game and look at overall 3 point percentage by all the guards it is not very good. I stated early that never again will LU get as much time to shoot and be that wide open. I have no worries about MM and I hope he shoots a minimum amount of 3s all year. When he drives and creates LU should continue to reap benefits.November 25, 2013 at 7:48 pm #12388
Who starts tonight? Do we run out the same 5 who began each game to date or do set examples and reward production in what has been an area of extreme weakness, i.e., rebounding? If so, we give TK and AP a seat along the sideline – even if only until the first media timeout – and go big with CB, JG, and JC in the forecourt with MM and CS up top. Check out the numbers below and see if you don’t agree. After all, what do we have to lose? It’s only the preseason!
Player / RPG / One every ___Minutes
Forwards and Center
JC / 6.6 / 4.4
CB / 4.3 / 2.8
TK / 2.8 / 8.7
JG / 2.2 / 4.6
SW / 1.8 / 8.7
MM / 4.2 / 8.4
CS / 2.4 / 13.1
SC / 2.0 / 5.5
MS / 0.6 / 15.0
AP / 0.6 / 42.7
SB, I agree with your analysis of the forecourt problems and obstacles we face tonight. For us to have a legit chance of winning, I’m thinking the “3’s” will have to fall. We certanily have a talented guard corp and given space they can light it up.November 25, 2013 at 10:35 pm #12393
Quote: Really hoping that some of the rebounding issues have been addressed since Pitt. TX Southern is the 276th best rebounding team in the country by total rebounding %. Lehigh is 328. What I’m looking for tonight is a win on the boards. TX Southern’s two best players are forwards who average over 20 each. Aaric Murray was once a big time recruit who is now on his 3rd school (after LaSalle and West Virginia), and is going to be a very tough match-up.
Murray is definitely talented but also a big-time head case who has usually made all his teammates worse. After having been run off of two teams, it will be interesting to see if the third time is the charm. It’s been a long time since he was being talked about as a potential NBA first round draft pick.November 25, 2013 at 11:08 pm #12396
Murray is definitely talented but also a big-time head case who has usually made all his teammates worse. After having been run off of two teams, it will be interesting to see if the third time is the charm. It’s been a long time since he was being talked about as a potential NBA first round draft pick.
Murray’s stock is certainly way down, and I wouldn’t want him anywhere near any team I support. However, a skilled and athletic 6’10 player that can shoot the three is not a good match-up for Kempton. And if Chuku guards him, that puts Kempton on Rodriguez, which I don’t see ending up much better.
As for Murray personally, it seems like his top priority is being allowed to do whatever he wants. Considering he is shooting over 17 times a game, I bet he considers his third stop “the charm” regardless of team performance. Since he has this season left, they won’t really get a chance to run him off the team.November 26, 2013 at 2:13 am #12402
Hung on and won! Only followed along on ESPN play by play summary as there was no tv here in Allentown. Stats seem to indicate a complete team effort on the boards and the always steady C.S. was his always steady self, but in deluxe scoring mode. Would love to hear opinions from anyone who actually saw the game.November 26, 2013 at 2:22 am #12404
espn radio was fine . Had to go out so missed most of 2nd. Team play in 1st. Hope someone had some eyes on game.November 26, 2013 at 2:37 am #12405
Wow…Aaric Murray sure gets around. He was a Top 50 kid coming out of HS and went to LaSalle for a year, sat out the following season, played a season at West Virginia and is now at Texas Southern.
Tim Kempton with 20 and 8
Based on stats alone, rebounding improved but still allowed 19 offensive boards. That could be a killer.
Chuku 1-6 from beyond the arc.November 26, 2013 at 5:31 am #12414
Just finished my 2nd watch of this. Turns out, I have to watch twice – first time I just watch as a fan, not fair for analysis.
Lots of interesting stuff here, IMO. First off, at this point, it looks like our season will go as far as TK takes us. I am stunned at his impact as a frosh. I think he faced pretty decent talent here, too. Until somebody steps forward as THE shooter, we ride the TK train on offense.
Next, the lineup is starting to shape up. Here’s the top 6 in minutes:
15 Schaefer, Corey * 37
11 McKnight, Mackey* 33
32 Kempton, Tim * 28
23 Whitfield, Shane 22
44 Baltimore, Conroy 21
05 Price, Austin * 17
Note the absence of JC. Right there is my biggest concern. I think he has some gifts, but we’re not using them right. He’s a 3, in my mind, no question. CANNOT start him as a 4. I hope he develops a post game over the next few years, but it’s not there now. 3’s swoop in for rebounds, 4’s post up and get position.
We committed a lot of fouls. But I’m not as bummed about that as I might be in different circumstances. We made life pretty rough for their bigs – blocks, changed shots, frustrated them. Granted, Ariac had 28 – but he worked for them. I bet he’s sore and tired tomorrow. On 2nd watch, they really had to work for paint points, which is a BIG positive in my book.
I’m softening on CS. He can shoot 3s. That, we can use. I don’t like him driving to the basket – I feel like he gets caught in the air or stuck on the baseline more often than not. But if he can be the kick-out 3 guy – hell yeah!! M.S. makes me unbelievably nervous. I feel like he’s out of control most of the time. He’ll be fine (or better), eventually, but not this year
SD State will be tough. But if we pull it out, it’s a pretty nice win, I think.
P.S. I really, really wanna see AD come back.November 26, 2013 at 5:51 am #12419
Watch Schaefer in warmups. Seems like he shoots lights out on 3s. Glad to see him get more p/tNovember 26, 2013 at 6:13 am #12420
My chart, right now:
1: MM, CS, MS
2: CS, AP, SC (if healthy)
3: JC, SW
4: CB, JG (could switch this order)
5: TK, JG
AD is the wildcard. As much as I like playing a true 3, I’d consider playing AD in that spot depending on match-ups and how the game is going.November 26, 2013 at 12:22 pm #12421
Good recap Todd, I watched it as well, bought the SD monthly package latest night so I could replay last night and watch champ game tonight, dollar cost averaging!
Well, it took 6 games but we have an anchor on offense and he is a true freshman center! TK again last night showed a ton of versatility on offense, he hit some hook, Atleast one perimeter jumper, had a couple nice seals where he pinned defender on his back facing perimeter and had teammate lob over the top, had offensive rebound out backs….this is really tremendously exciting what we are seeing from this young guy, the future is huge with his guy in the middle. He has a shot at 15 points per ge as a freshman center, which is incredible. Looks like our next 2K club member. CS shoulders rest of scoring load, was effective with his jumper last night, really looks in control and his minutes backed that up. MM was pretty quiet by his standards as was AP and JC. JC was chucking up 3 balls sort of like minny, finished 1 of 6 from deep….he is frustrating at times because he seems to have more then just pick and pop 3 point guy but he is mostly a shooter which is tough to watch with that body and length, wish he would drive more and bang more. AP has been very quiet of late, want to see him push through this.
Good sign was bench last night, JG was flying around and it’s games like these that get you excited but we haven’t seen him be consistent yet which is frustrating because his game is built on energy and not like we call plays for him. He was a maniac last night flying around grabbing rebounds and finished with an impressive 6/6. He needs to bring that every night. Him combined with SW and CB got ya 14 boards, CB kept a few possessions alive with his hustle and fight, SW had his moments.MS still trying to find his game but has one sick highlight drive and floating runner.
The gym was empty, and there were no commentators calling the game, which was funny. The video functionality was good and easy with fast forward buttons. Glad we playing the home team, as another good young test and it will be packed for tonight.November 26, 2013 at 12:42 pm #12422
Kempton over 14 ppg through toughest part of schedule, legit shot at 17/18 per game on year once weaker part of schedule and PL play gets here. Looking at next member of 2k club – man we lucky to get chance to watch this guy grow for four years.
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