November 7, 2012 at 6:18 pm #7767
OK, after talking about this since the Xavier loss, it is time to figure out where we are and make some predictions. I am starting with the OOC schedule, as we will have time for PL predictions later on, and will have a good sample size at that point.
First, wanted to note that in the latest AP Poll, Lehigh received 2 votes. So, of the 52 ranked and bubbling under teams, we would be at #50. Not bad. Of note, Baylor checks in at 19 and VCU checks in at 27.
We can all agree, that we are looking at essentially 4 OOC games of relevance.
@ Baylor, @ Robert Morris, @ North Texas and @ VCU.
If we get by RMU, then we are looking at a 5th in Pittsburgh, and potentially 2 more, if we win that. But, that is getting ahead of ourselves.
Game 1 @ Baylor – Putting this in the loss column. Hostile arena, top 20 team, good guards, much more size, I see us struggling mightily on the glass. Loss.
Game 2 @ Robert Morris – They have a talented club, with a lot returning, I think top 5 scorers, again on the road in Pittsburgh. Loss.
Game 3 @ North Texas – Mean Green have a good program, and I recall them drawing decent crowds in Denton. They return most of their scoring from last season. Long trip for Lehigh to DFW area. Tight game, I think we lose a close one. Loss.
Game 4 @ VCU – Again, hostile crowd, strong program, a lot returning. I see a 4th loss to Rams in Richmond. Loss.
I see no way we win Baylor or VCU, but would not be shocked to see us win North Texas and/or RMU. 2-2 would be fantastic, 1-3 would be respectable. 0-4, not the end of the world, as they are all road games against good competition.
I am giving us 2 wins in the subregional, plus a Fordham win, after RMU loss.
Wins against Sacred Heart, Quinnipiac, FDU, Fordham (second game), St. Francis, Bryant, and Muhlenberg.
That would get us to PL schedule at 10-4. I see us doing no worse than that. 11-3, I am happy, 12-2 or better, I am thrilled.November 7, 2012 at 6:34 pm #7768
Split with FU. 10-4.
Keep looking at Pitt and Baylor. Our skinny kids are well coached and verytalented but still skinny.November 7, 2012 at 8:37 pm #7770
Rich, does that mean you are predicting an RMU win? Just trying to see where you and ’90 differ.
I think 10-4 is about right, but I think the boys take at least 1 if not 2 from the Baylor, RMU, NT, VCU group. Maybe a slip up against Fordham or Quinnipiac a la Cornell last year.
I’d love to see a win at Baylor to keep up the offseason momentum and media attention. That would definitely provide another surge of ticket sales which is one of the many factors that will determine if the program maintains the momentum after the CJ, Gabe, Holden era.November 7, 2012 at 11:04 pm #7773
Although my head says Baylor, there is a certain intangible about having a team virtually intact from one season to another in early games. Baylor is absolutely loaded at the guard position but Lehigh is very good defensively there. Baylor will have real talent in the frontcourt but they may not have the chemistry quite yet. Baylor will definitely be stronger as the season goes on, but my heart is going with Lehigh. That’s because no money is actually on the line.
I’ve seen Robert Morris play and they could be trouble but they are a team that is better than their parts. Lehigh may have the best 2-3 players on the court but unless they play well as a team, it could be trouble. I’m still going with Lehigh.
Pitt, IMHO, lacks a quality point guard. When pressured Woodall can make mistakes. They are also a team that lets you hang around. The trouble is that they are big and physical. The Consol is not really their home court but close enough. Although this game is winnable, I’m going with Pitt.
VCU gives us matchup nightmares. I’m not sure yet if we are athletic enough to keep up with them. This would be a remarkable upset but I don’t see it happening.
North Texas St. will be interesting. A battle Royale between CJ and Mitchell. Whoever wins that battle wins the game. If this game was in Stabler, I would go Lehigh. It will be really, really close but I’m thinking NTS and hoping I’m wrong.
Without knowing who else we may play in the NIT, the rest of the schedule should be Ws but we will probably lose one anyway. So I too am going 10-4 but see 11-3 as a real possibility.November 7, 2012 at 11:51 pm #7776
If Gabe , BJ out extended time 9 may be best.November 8, 2012 at 1:51 am #7780
You can cross off MSG on the list of options if GK can’t go in preseason NIT Pitt pod….totally depressed right now…someone talk me off the ledge….
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