Tournament Forecasts

Forum Forum Lehigh Sports Lehigh Men’s Basketball Tournament Forecasts

This topic contains 11 replies, has 6 voices, and was last updated by  LU65 7 years, 8 months ago.

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  • #5070

    LU65
    Participant

    Albeit one man’s opiniuon, that of Jon Altena, the Bleacher Report has LU winning it all.

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1063312-patriot-league-tournament-breakdown-will-bucknell-overcome-recent-struggles

    Your thoughts?

    #5071
    RichH
    RichH
    Participant

    Just finished article. With 2 home games ( and hopefully better turnout) we should make finals. Bison will also. Well thought out piece. AU scary with Brewer and Hinkle but not so much away from home. We may be young but these kids have more than enough experience to take it all now . True , if CJ returns, we s/b the odds on favorite next year. I wony discount us this year

    #5072
    Bison137
    Bison137
    Participant

    1. Why would CJ not return? He’s certainly not going to the NBA. I highly doubt he’d leave LU to go to Europe or to transfer.

    2. Bucknell returns nine of their top ten players next year. If they win it this year, they will be the preseason favorite next year.

    #5073
    RichH
    RichH
    Participant

    I hope you are correct but ever since I saw interview on CBS ,I wonder. CJ noted his love of Lehigh but also that he wanted to take “care of his family”, which means what?

    #5076

    LU65
    Participant

    The team that worries me the most at this particular point in time is Holy Cross. I wonder if 137 feels the same way as they will undoubtedly send Navy packing on Wednesday – the same night that a Johnson-less Lafayette squad bids farewell up in Worcester – forcing a showdown with HC out in Lewisburg on Saturday. What catches my attention about Holy Cross is their turnaround on defense. Since we upended them by 24 at Stable on February 4th, the Crusaders have held opponents (the other 6 members of the PL) to an average of 54.7 ppg. In the 8 prior league games, foes had averaged 69.0 ppg. They also lead the league when it comes to defending the “3,” posting a .292 average for the entire 14 – game season. If – I know it’s a big if – they can limit Muscala’s touches and points, while somehow matching them on the board, I like Holy Cross’s chances and their move into the finals.

    LUHoopsOO, have you seen Holy Cross play recently. I know you’re practically a neighbor.

    #5077
    Bison137
    Bison137
    Participant

    I’m definitely concerned about Holy Cross – mostly because Burrell is playing a lot better at PG lately. However I do expect Bucknell to handle them in Sojka. A few comments about HC’s better second-half defense:

    1. Part of it (although not close to all of it) is due to a much slower pace of play during the second half of the league season. In the first seven league games, each team had 66 possessions per game in the average HC game. In the second half, each team had 61.7 ppg. That accounts for over 4 points of their defensive improvement.

    2. HC caught a break in the second half schedule. When they played American, AU had just played an emotional Thursday night game vs Lehigh on CBSSN, then had to bus/fly/bus to Worcester on Friday. Then played Saturday afternoon. AU was outscored 28-20 in the first half before outscoring HC in the second half.

    And when HC played Bucknell, it was exactly the same scenario. BU played an emotional game vs LU on Thursday night, took a 6-hour bus ride to Worcester Friday, and played on Saturday afternoon. BU was outscored 28-10 in the first half, then outscored HC 42-26 in the second half. Lost by two and had a long shot at the buzzer that could have won the game.

    Looking at all the PL teams that have had to play Thursday night, take a long bus/plane ride Friday, and play Saturday afternoon, it appears that there is a significant effect on that team’s Saturday play – especially offensively. BTW, Holy Cross was the victim of the same scheduling in the first half of the season, when they had to play Thursday night and then take the long bus ride to Bucknell. They lost by a score of 75-41.

    – – – – –

    What concerns me more about Bucknell than having to play HC is the fact that several Bison are experiencing shooting slumps (Cohen and Ayers in particular), and that Bryson Johnson has been erratic. If two of those three don’t shoot well, then the BU offense is not very good and Muscala will be double-teamed any time it even looks like he might get the ball.

    • This reply was modified 7 years, 8 months ago by Bison137 Bison137.
    #5080

    LUHoops00
    Participant

    Have not seen HC in last two weeks, but I think BU takes them out at home in semis, I really do. In fact, I would not surprised if Lafayette buries HC in first round game…I just picture HC laying an egg in big spot under CMB….This is going to be a great tourney…

    #5083

    LU65
    Participant

    How Pomeroy sees it on Wednesday
    Army @ AU………..AU wins 72-59 (87% chance)
    Navy @ BU………..BU wins 68-49 (97% chance)
    LC @ HC…………. HC wins 72-67 (68% chance)
    CU @ LU……………..LU wins 85-60 (97% chance)

    Home teams are the class of the league and should – without question – advance. Upsets? Extremely doubtful. But, pressed to pick one, I’d go with Army in a shocker. Don’t get me wrong, I think their chances are slim – very slim – but give the cadets credit for being able to score the basketball. Hustle won’t be their problem, either. Army owns the 5th rank scoring offense in the league and when the 3’s start to fall, anything can happen. Just ask Navy about the day Army dropped 13 of 23 on them in a win or talk to Colgate about the cannon barrage of 16 out of 29 three’s that spelled their defeat. Defense, however, remains their problem. There, the Black Knights are 7th in FG% Defense @.475 and worse yet – 8th in Rebounding Defense @ 35.3/game. Yeah, they’ll have to hope that (1) AU has a cold shooting night and (2) that the ball bounces right (to them) off the rim and not into the waiting arms of 6’11” Worblicky or 6’11″Riley Grafft . Look for Army to push their already high pace of play (34th fastest in the nation) in route to some easy fast break points. Extra possession could mean extra points – something they’ll need if they hope to stay even with the more talented AU bunch. To quote Army Coach, Zach Spiker during his Lehigh post game interview, “I’m proud of our guys….that effort on Wednesday might do something pretty special.”

    #5085

    lehigh90
    Participant

    I think Lehigh and Bucknell advance pretty easily to the Finals. HC pulling an upset and American pulling another upset is certainly possible, but I think there will be the big revenge game between LU and BU in Sojka next week.

    I think I would feel a little more comfortable with a possible Lehigh win, if Lehigh went 0-2 against Bucknell in the regular season. But, winning there recently, there will be no sneaking up on them now. Bucknell will be on all cylinders in that game. Lehigh is going to have to play their very best to win that game. Obviously, you give Bucknell an advantage for being at home.

    Will Final be a definite sellout? Can you get tickets through Lehigh or does it all run through Bucknell? I don’t want to drive out there without a ticket, and be turned away. Will Bucknell be selling them on their website like the regular season games? Any info appreciated.

    #5086
    Bison137
    Bison137
    Participant

    If the final is at Bucknell, it will unquestionably be a sellout – even with a few hundred SRO seats being sold. However, PL rules require that the visiting team for all tournament games be offered up to 1/3 of the seats. For the semis last year, LU did not sell many seats so I doubt it will be a problem at all buying seats from the LU allocation.

    It’s unlikely there will be any tickets available through Bucknell directly however – except for any returns they get from LU.

    • This reply was modified 7 years, 8 months ago by Bison137 Bison137.
    #5099

    norcalfan
    Participant

    LUHoops00,
    You called it. Maybe HC looked pass them because Tony was out. One can never underestimate O’Hanlon. Darn! BU got lucky.

    #5101

    LU65
    Participant

    Nice going with that LC pick, LUHoops00

    A couple of things caught my eye the morning after. One, the wonder of the “3” and the way BU got it done in Round 1.

    The 3-point shot

    The good
    Despite the horrific numbers below (first posted by DoubleSader on HC Board), Lafayette proved it was quality not quantity as they attempted just 41 shots from the field and made 13 of 19 from long range to win up in Worcester 84-76. This was the Leopards’ second win at the Hart Center this year and third straight up in MA. Up next: Bucknell…….Lewisburg, PA @ 4:30pm, Saturday.
    -Points in the paint: -20 Lafayette
    -Rebounding margin: -4 Lafayette.
    -Steals: -10 Lafayette
    -Turnovers: -5 Lafayette
    -Pts off Turnovers: -8 Lafayette
    -Second Chance points: -7 Lafayette
    -Bench Points: -7 Lafayette
    -Shot attempts: -7 Lafayette

    The bad
    An the other end of the 3-point story would be Army. The cadets never had a chance missing 22 of 26. When Simmons and Herberk go 1 for 12 from deep you know it’s going to be a long night and it was. Too bad, this on a night when AU’s Hinkle and Wroblicky combined for just 13 points on 4 for 13 shooting. AU @ LU Saturday @ 2pm.

    BU does it another way in their romp over Navy…………….(from buckenllbison.com)

    On a night when star center Mike Muscala played a supporting role with two points on three shot attempts in just 20 minutes of action, the Bison received production from all corners of the roster. Thirteen of the team’s 14 players entered the scoring column, and the bench produced 45 of the team’s 87 points. A 28-10 run over the last eight minutes of the half gave Bucknell a 41-21 lead at intermission, the margin ballooned to as many as 31 in the second half, and no Bison player was needed for more than 24 minutes.

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