I took a look at the overall picture on CSJ:
The final team (and probably more) should have a 7-4 record. Just counting the autobid conferences, and not the schools I consider “locks”, there are 23 (!) different teams that could reach 7-4. Many will get eliminated over the last three weeks, but it shows the logjam.
Any shot at the PL getting an at-large involves:
* Towson not getting to 7 wins
* OVC only having at most one at-large team (possible that no at-large team gets to 7 D-I wins!)
* Perhaps a Big Sky team eliminating themselves
Crazier things have happened. Not great odds, but there is a chance.