I see a good bit of optimism about our upcoming schedule – which leads me to play devil’s advocate a bit. The only 2 things that seem to be clear so far in the PL, to me, are that Bucknell is alone in a top tier, and it looks like American is alone in a bottom tier. Everyone in the middle appears to be a big muddle. Navy is the biggest unknown to me – and I haven’t watched them play yet. Their record is very good, and their only PL loss is to Bucknell. On paper, they look like a clear #2. I’m gonna reserve judgment until I see more. BU looked, on paper, like top-tier PL team, but that bubble has burst. Army has proven to be pretty average so far. Will Navy show that they are for real, or fall back like those other two?
Regarding our next 3 games – I think the most likely outcome is 1-2, and 2-1 would be a very good outcome. Until shown otherwise, I think we need to expect to drop our game to Navy. Cross and ‘pards are right in the muddle with us, and we play them both on the road.
For what it’s worth, KenPom projects all 3 as losses when viewed independently.