American U. – Game 5

[pafan11Participant]

I think without question youth plays a part but I also think that a constant shuffling of lineups has an impact on consistency. Maybe its me but substitution pattern seems very arbitrary and inconsistent as well as unnecessary at times. Very difficult to develop chemistry and consistency if you have new lineups every stoppage of play..

[RichHParticipant]

OK,makes sense,if pattern is arbitrary.

[StablerBumParticipant]

I agree with Rich that the large rotation is more the result of inconsistency rather than the cause. MS and BA have played some great games off the bench this season, as has JG before he was starting.

If you look closer at the minutes, there are 5 clear leaders in MPG averaging between 23 and 31 minutes. After that 5, the next guy drops down to 18.7 (and that is JC – who could be under 15mpg by the end of season if the current trend continues). BA and MS are barely over the 15 minute threshold (under 16 for both) – so I don’t think those numbers are as dramatic as they appear.

It’s easier to have a small rotation if you are playing well and you can ride the lineups that are succeeding, but if Reed never knows what he is going to get game to game, I agree with his philosophy of throwing different guys out there until he gets the effort and production he is looking for.

[vanParticipant]

suspect coach would like to shorten rotation, but what do you do when JG has a poor night and gets 3 fouls early or CS takes only one shot all night or BA can’t defend his guy? searching

[pafan11Participant]

CS might take more than one shot if he ever stayed on the court for longer than 6 minute stretches. Kempton played one of his more consistent games last night and IMHO its because he played longer stretches. Number of minutes as Stabler points out may not be the issue but when subs come in and the frequency of lineup changes may be the real issue. If you can’t defend you should not be on the floor for 25 minutes and absolutely not on the floor tied needing one stop to force OT.

[lehigh90Participant]

I surely don’t see a mass exodus of transfers on the roster. Has Lehigh ever had a mass exodus of transfers? One here or there. If there were 2 guys who would be likely candidates, they would be JC and MS, for 2 different reasons. JC seems to have worn out his welcome with the coach, and his role continues to get smaller. If he hadn’t lost a year of eligibility it would be more likely, as he would only have 1 year left to play, and would have to sit another year, as I don’t think he would have credits to graduate. MS, because he is a good player, who is going to sit behind a younger and better player in KR. I think MS could go somewhere and probably start. I thought DC was a likely transfer candidate a couple of years back, but after the knee injury and his increased role in his Jr. season, he’s not going anywhere.
Graduate 3 in CB, SC and CS, so they won’t be back. Class behind them is JC, DC and JG, who obviously isn’t going anywhere. Of the sophs, I guess AP and TK could transfer if they wanted to try and step up the D1 ladder, but that would seem very unlikely. MS mentioned above. The walk-ons aren’t going anywhere unless they want to pull a Tyrone Staggers and transfer to a D3 to simply play. KM just got here, unlikely he’s leaving after already transferring (JRG same boat). In the frosh class, BA is getting a lot of minutes (unlikely to transfer, although they lost a frosh last year who did play and transfer, already forgot his name, went down south). KR not going anywhere playing 30 min a game, unless home sick. I could see possibly TJ transferring since he is sitting. But, overall, I don’t see a lot of transferring.
Minutes are sporadic as coach is looking for any hint of consistency. It is hard to set a rotation with such a Jekyl and Hyde team, although this far in his rotation should be set.

[pafan11Participant]

Lehigh 90,

I think you make a great argument, but I could see four or five transfers especially if some assistant coaches move on. MS,JC,BA, and TK are all prime candidates in my opinion. JC would be tough as you stated with only one year left and having to sit a year it depends on his goals after college. As a European he may have aspirations of playing overseas. He would need a strong year to up his opportunities don’t see that happening at LU. MS and BA both could play more significant roles on other teams. Don’t think BA and AP fit together as complimentary players and AP not going anywhere. TK prime candidate to move to a power 6 conference with his offensive skill set, and connections. As for walk-ons I could see CR leaving for an opportunity to be a significant player in the PSAC or to pursue football. I do not see any other walk-ons leaving for reasons you stated above. Hope I am wrong and all these guys stay put and figure out how to play together. Also, these young men are receiving one of the best educations in the country which is really the most important thing.
Forgot about TJ, certainly a prime candidate as he will behind KR his entire career.

• This reply was modified 9 years, 3 months ago by  pafan11.

[toddcuddParticipant]

The lineups and rotations, in this game in particular, were a bit surprising to me. Saw quite a few combinations that I don’t think we’d seen previously. However – I am fully supportive of experimenting, even this late in the season. It’s clear that we really haven’t yet figured out what works (see PL record). I don’t think we can expect to see consistent rotations until we see some form of consistency from players. I will add that our % Bench Minutes is pretty middle-of-the-road; nothing unusual.
I decided to pull down season-to-date numbers this morning, and do some monkeying with them. Below, I took the set of rotation players, and added some homemade calculations – points per 40 mins, FGAs per 40 mins, and points per FGA – and found some interesting things. The list is sorted by pts/40 mins. I included KM in the list, which is was borderline for me. Based on recent reports of ongoing injury struggles, I’m inclined to see him as someone who would be a rotation player, if healthy. Could go either way, though.

I’m gonna risk making myself very unpopular here now. What stands out most to me is the lack of production from CS. It’s clear that he can shoot – but he doesn’t. His pts/FGA is among the best on the team. His pts/40 is not good at all, however. When you look at FGA/40, you can see why. He’s the lowest in the list. What really gets me about this is that he’s been playing the 2! If he was a point guard, you might live with that. MS has a similar number – but he’s largely played the 1, backing up KR. I think we need somebody else in the lineup who is looking to score, and is able to score.
I don’t have all the answers, but I’d like to see a change to the starting lineup. Leadership and stability are important; but we need points.

Minutes
## Player Tot pts/40 FGA FGA/40 FG% pts/FGA
32 Kempton, Tim 452 19.91 185 16.37 0.459 1.22
5 Price, Austin 430 16.47 153 14.23 0.418 1.16
42 Alston, Brandon 255 15.06 68 10.67 0.426 1.41
55 McCaskill, Khalid 29 12.41 10 13.79 0.4 0.90
40 Goldsborough, Justin 378 12.28 86 9.10 0.512 1.35
1 Ross, Kahron 499 11.46 115 9.22 0.435 1.24
31 Chuku, Jesse 299 9.50 73 9.77 0.37 0.97
15 Schaefer, Corey 384 9.27 66 6.88 0.455 1.35
21 Cvrkalj, Stefan 164 9.27 51 12.44 0.275 0.75
4 Carter, Devon 58 8.97 14 9.66 0.286 0.93
10 Simelton, Miles 251 8.29 56 8.92 0.321 0.93

Sorry – can’t get that to format decently.

• This reply was modified 9 years, 3 months ago by  toddcudd. Reason: tried to fix layout, no dice
• This reply was modified 9 years, 3 months ago by  toddcudd. Reason: added as image too

[lfnadminKeymaster]

Right now this is a team with some missing parts:

* a consistent scorer that can get double-digits every night
* turnovers continue to be a problem
* consistent presence under the boards

There are nights when we get double-digit scores, and nights when turnovers are kept low, and days when JG and/or TK go nuts on the boards. But they rarely happen all at the same time.

When AP or CS explode and get 15-20 point games, we can beat anyone (see: CS vs. DePaul). When TK and JG combine for 24 boards, like they did vs. Arizona State, we can beat anyone. When AP and KR go an entire game combining for only 6 TOs, we can beat anyone. But we can’t count on this team doing any one of these things every night. And that’s what’s frustrating.

As everyone knows I am a big AP fan, but he desperately needs to make his 10 point games into 15-20 point games on a consistent basis. JG has moments of brilliance but he needs to be an 8 rpg guy. And turnovers.

[StablerBumParticipant]

I agree with everything LFN said. AP needs more consistency and to be stronger with the ball. JG seems to go on 4 to 5 game tears, and then fall back. If he brings it every night he has all-league potential.

On PAfan’s post…

I think you make a great argument, but I could see four or five transfers especially if some assistant coaches move on. MS,JC,BA, and TK are all prime candidates in my opinion.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple transfers, but one I wanted to address specifically is BA. If I were one of his advisors, I would tell him that he is in a great situation. He’s getting solid minutes as a freshman, and is being allowed to play his game. He has a unique skillset (ability to create his own shot and get to the line) on this team. With CS and his 25mpg graduating, along with SC’s 11mpg – I could easily see BA playing 25 minutes next year. KR at the 1, AP at the 2, and BA at the three, with MS seeing minutes backing up the 1/2. BA seems to me to be in a great place.

[LU65Participant]

Open auditions for next year? Wouldn’t be surprised to see Cory take a seat in favor of Brandon any day soon now. Maybe even tomorrow vs. Holy Cross.

[pafan11Participant]

Stabler,

I wouldn’t argue that LU isn’t the best place for BA, but will he see it that way. BA jumped around High Schools (not sure why) and IMHO will struggle with being 3rd option offensively for at least next two years. I would argue that the 3 spot this team needs is a rebounder, perimeter defender, and efficient scorer. I do not see BA fitting any of those roles. I see him as a high volume shot taker who will turn the ball over, rebound okay, and take breaks defensively. I realize he is young and these things are subject to change but I’m just not sure they will (hope so!).

One topic that does not get discussed is the serious disadvantage created with no redshirt year in PL. BA, TJ this year, and MS last year really could have benefited from RS and overall team performance would not be any different both years IMHO.

[RichHParticipant]

Agree that a mass transfer unlikely. Would not be surprised if Jenkins left.

[jimk72Participant]

Really interesting thoughts above. Obvious even to me that we need a consistent aggressive scorer. Not necessarily CJ numbers, but someone the opponent has to really pay attention to, other that TK. Mackey type scoring numbers, but consistently. CS certainly has not been it.

And about the 3 position….. AP has been there the most (41% of minutes over last five games) with no real consistency. BA has been there 31% of the time and done some good things for a frosh but still not consistent. If the reports on KL from California and MH from Indiana translate at the Patriot League level we may have the answer at 2 and 3. Then I think serious transfer questions come up. And not about TK. With dad’s connections it’s hard to believe he could not have gone a number of other places in the first place.

[StablerBumParticipant]

Few thoughts:

1) We do need an isolation scorer, but we also need someone that gets to the free throw line. Lehigh is 243rd in the country in free throw attempts per field goal attempt. For a team that does not shoot the 3 well (229th in the country in 3 pt %) that is bad. It’s not like we are raining them from deep and therefore don’t need to attack the basket. Basically, we don’t shoot well from the perimeter and we also don’t attack the basket for lay-ups/fouls. This is one area of BA’s game where he may already be the best perimeter player on the team at drawing fouls, a valuable skill.

2) AP plays the “3” with KR and CS on the court, but he and CS are interchangeable. I expect AP and BA to play on the court together quite a bit next year with AP as the nominal 2 and BA as the 3.

3) I think Holba will swing between the 3 and 4 a la Greiner. I don’t see him playing major minutes at the 3 as a freshman, but rather that he expands his skillset over his time in Bethlehem becoming more of a perimeter player as he matures.

4) Will be very interesting to see where TJ and KL fit into the team next year. KL certainly seems talented, and I agree that I can’t see a scenario where all of these guards are playing. At the same time, it seems to me it would be rash for a current guy to transfer before KL even arrives (aside from TJ who really hasn’t seen the floor at all).

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