December 15, 2014 at 2:18 pm #17264
KenPom Projections and Notes of Interest
Lehigh (4-4 and 3-4 vs. D-1) ranked 194th (high point or best of the year)
Quinnipiac (3-5 all D-1) ranked 169th (low point or worst of the year)
Q wins 71-66 (70% chance)
Q is a member of the MAAC, an eleven-member conference rated one-step ahead of the PL by KenPom. This will be our third – and last – opponent we’ll face out of the Metro Atlantic grouping. To date, we have dropped decisions to both Canisius by 12 and Rider by 4.
Q has had an up and down season to say the least. They began the season by alternating wins and losses, coming out on top in games 1, 3, and 5 while losing games 2, 4, and 6. But since then they have proceeded to lose to their in-state arch-rival and conference foe, Fairfield, and to Boston U. on Sunday. That said, the Bobcats can rightfully claim quality wins over Yale (8-3) and Vermont (5-4) this year. At one point, the Bobcats were ranked as high as #125. They presently sit at #169. While slipping in stature, it must be said that Quinnipiac has “been in” four of their five losses, losing by a combined 13 points with one going into OT. No stranger to playing an extra session or two to decide the outcome, Quinnipiac is 2-1 in extended play games this season.
Lehigh kicks off a four game home stand for the Bobcats who haven’t won in the month of December and who must be smarting following their 3-point loss to Boston U. on Sunday. It came via a “3” from Terrier Guard, John Papale, with four seconds left in the game. Prior to the bomb, Boston U. had managed to connect on just 5 of 20 from long range. Quinnipiac was led, as usual, by the senior trio of Drame, Hearst, and Contin.
A quick look around the Bobcat website and the latest KenPom report reveal a number of interesting facts. Among them…………
Q’s Offensive Rebounding numbers
– both in terms of what percentage of their total rebounds are made on the offensive glass (that’s the “O” number) and the offensive rebounding percentage allowed (that’s the “D” numbers). Q ranks as one of the nations’ best in each case. Their offensive number is 44.1% (# 3 in the country) and their defensive number is 26.5% (#33 in the country). Looking at rebounding in a more simplistic way, consider the fact that LU manages to pull down 37.1 rpg while Q snags 45.5 rpg. LU’s rebounding margin stands at 1.3 rpg; Q’s margin is 13.9 rpg.
Q’s seasoned Lineup.
Q should start 4 seniors and 1 sophomore when we face-off with them on Thursday. All signs point to little reliance on their bench (20% of all minutes in games to date). Expect to see at the opening:
Dramme, 6’9” F (10.8 ppg and 14.8 rpg)
Harris, 6’8” F (82.8% FT)
Hearst, 6’4” G (118 shots in 8 games or 26% of all team FGAs, logging 39 mpg)
Conti, 6’3” G (34 mpg)
Chandler, 5’1” G (weakest FG% of starters @ 25.5%)
Q’s threat to turn us over while playing “D.”
Not much. In fact, no one is worse in all of D-1 at just 13.2% of their opponents’ possessions.
At 77.1%, they’re 10th best in the nation.
Let’s hope that our team is focused on the game at hand and not caught looking ahead 24 hours to their flight out West to take on #68 Arizona State.
For those interested in joining us, Hoops00 and I will be seating behind the LU bench on Thursday night up in Hamden (CT). Let us know if you plan on attending the game.December 17, 2014 at 3:19 pm #17283
Game Notes are up!
Reminder: The game will be available via Q’s Internet Video service.December 18, 2014 at 3:31 pm #17325
This is going to be a tough game. Question with them is always can we hold our own on the glass. Key matchup is going to be Drame, who is a very athletic big man. I think he is too athletic for TK to handle, so it is going to be up to JG, and possibly, JC to control him. But, if we get pounded on the boards, we lose double digits here.December 18, 2014 at 4:25 pm #17328
Agree with ’90 that Drame is a handful and it will likely be JG tasked with trying to contain him. This will definitely be a tough game, and I would put good money on us losing the battle of the boards. Q is one of the best rebounding teams in the NCAA every year over the past few seasons. Hopefully we can still pull out a win like last year when Q out rebounded us 43-33 but we still won by 11 based on superior shooting and winning the turnover battle.December 18, 2014 at 4:27 pm #17329December 18, 2014 at 10:15 pm #17334
Absolutely agree on the importance of Goldie in this game, and for the entire season for that matter. Teams know TK and will continue to double up to take him out of the game if they can.
The other key is turnovers. If we have consistent possessions and JG has another breakout game we can win this with an average or better shooting night (foul line included). But we can’t afford to give Q (listed as 320th out of 351 in field goal percentage) additional chances since we probably lose on the boards. KR took a big step last game. Hopefully that trend continues tonight.
No TV of any kind on this one, right?December 18, 2014 at 10:33 pm #17335December 18, 2014 at 11:15 pm #17336
Gracias Todd !December 19, 2014 at 1:25 am #17339
Down a ton. An ass whuppin. Kroogs keeps saying rebounds not as important as shooting. Q getting practically every one. The putbacks are ridiculous. Figured Q would beat us on rebounds but this is embarrassing. Hope last 8 mins we can get close.December 19, 2014 at 2:03 am #17340
Let us never speak of this again…December 19, 2014 at 2:04 am #17341
53-30 a truly bizzare stat. Hope we show up vs ASU.December 19, 2014 at 1:27 pm #17345
AWFUL! Too many individuals on this team. No chemistry, poor effort, and no trust in each other. IMHO this is not a youth problem and fear that this group of players will continue on these ups and downs for their entire career. Their talent will allow them to be very good some nights but the lack of trust in each other and their apparent concern for themselves above the team will continue to foster inconsistency. Aside from the seniors who seem willing to give up their own production and time on the floor for the team I see very little sacrifice from everyone else. Time for some accountability, step up and do the little things that winning teams do or ride the pine no matter how talented you are suppose to be. CJ is gone and not coming back so find a way to win as a team!December 19, 2014 at 3:08 pm #17346
Is 53 rebounds (27 offensive!!!) by a Lehigh opponent a record of some kind? I’m from the dark years (before Queenan & Poloha) so I suspect its not. But I’ll bet we haven’t given up that many in a long, long time. Didn’t see any of the game due to work overtime. However that many opposition rebounds almost always means lack of effort, or euphemistically: “lack of energy” in coach speak.
Bigger issue is, can they flush last night, and play well tomorrow night?December 19, 2014 at 3:17 pm #17347
Only upside is George got to play and scored. Unfortunately,I watchedDecember 19, 2014 at 3:29 pm #17348
Agree with most of the comments here. Everyone knew that this game was going to come down to toughness, and Q smoked Lehigh on that front. I fully expected to get outrebounded badly but grabbing 42% of available defensive rebounds was much worse than I anticipated. I know that rebounding is not a point of emphasis for this staff, but Lehigh is towards the bottom of the NCAA (currently 289 out of 351) in defensive rebounding % yet again. Rebounding against a team like Q has to be a team effort. I liked that Alston was able to chip in 4 boards, but disappointed to see AP come up with zero in 18 minutes. His rebounds per game is exactly the same as last year (1.9). That’s a number I expected to go up as he matures and rounds out his game.
I’m hoping that PAfan is wrong about selfishness and that as this team matures, they start to figure it out. I worry about toughness as much or more than selfishness. This staff loves offense and high tempo, both of which I appreciate, but a dose of some toughness would be nice too.
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